The Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns are both entering the 2024 NFL season with some serious questions hanging over their heads. We know they have some fantasy football stars on their rosters, but what can we expect from the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, Jerome Ford, and Jerry Jeudy this week?
Utilizing our custom projections and our data insight, we break down which Cowboys and Browns fantasy managers should be looking to start and sit in Week 1.
- Spread: Browns -2.5
- Total: 42
- Cowboys implied points: 19.8
- Browns implied points: 22.3
The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.
Should Fantasy Managers Be Concerned About Dak Prescott This Week?
- Fantasy Points: 13.8
- Passing Yards: 180.3
- Passing TDs: 1.5
- Interceptions: 0.6
- Rushing Yards: 8.9
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
America’s quarterback is coming off of a season in which he cleared 4,500 yards through the air with 36 touchdowns and a career-best 69.5% completion percentage. He was special last season, and the pass-centric offensive stylings are likely to return in 2024.
That said, this could be a tough spot. There’s no denying the talent on the defensive side of the ball in Cleveland, and Prescott’s shortcomings in such spots were glaring last season
- Against top-10 yards/play defenses: 13.6 FPPG, 6.4 yards per pass
- Otherwise: 22.2 FPPG, 8.0 yards per pass
I’m not saying that Prescott sinks your team outright, but as a member of a large tier, asking him to return QB1 value in the season opener is a little optimistic for me. He’s your starter, and you’re not playing a streaming option over him, but I’d temper expectations and avoid him in a DFS setting.
Deshaun Watson’s Many Unknowns Make Him a Risky Fantasy Option
- Fantasy Points: 10.9
- Passing Yards: 135.1
- Passing TDs: 0.9
- Interceptions: 0.5
- Rushing Yards: 19.3
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
No team generated pressure more often than the Cowboys last season, and that hurts Watson’s ceiling case to open his 2024 season. Watson ranked 21st in fantasy points per pressured attempt last season, wedging him between Gardner Minshew II and Desmond Ridder in that metric.
That’s a problem, especially if Dallas controls the clock (third in time of possession last season). Watson’s profile carries upside due to his versatility, the pass-catching talent around him, and the backfield limitations. All of that said, you’re playing in a very deep league or getting too cute in DFS if you’re starting him this weekend, and that’s coming from someone with him pegged as a sleeper for the season as a whole.
Does Dallas Return Make Ezekiel Elliott a Slam-Dunk Starter?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.8
- Rushing Yards: 32.5
- Rushing TDs: 0.3
- Receptions: 1.4
- Receiving Yards: 8.7
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
Zeke’s stat line last season was an unmitigated disaster, and if you watched the games, it looked even worse. Do you know those science lab situations where a mouse is asked to find the cheese at the end of a maze?
That’s what 2023 was for Elliott — he was the mouse, but the cheese had no scent … and the walls were really high … and there was a moat filled with lava in the middle that required him to tightrope across … while juggling marbles.
Zeke might be washed. He probably is. But the situation glow up is tough to overstate: #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/HEUCAUChVx
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN)
He was put in a position to fail, and he did, something that tells us almost nothing. I suspect the age curve is near, but I can’t in good faith use last season as proof of that. Dallas brought him back in hopes of recapturing his past form, something that is unlikely to happen but should land him a favorable role out of the gates.
There is some versatility in this profile and touchdown upside by default. The Browns allowed a league-low 0.69 yards per carry before contact to running backs last season (that’s under nine inches), furthering my opinion that this isn’t going to be a pretty stat line. That said, a touchdown and a handful of targets is an RB2 profile, and his path to such a week is certainly there.
It’s easy to forget now, but Cleveland was the worst red-zone defense in the league last season, allowing six points on 71.4% of drives that crossed their 20-yard line. Of course, making it that far isn’t a given, but no defense was better at it last season than Dallas; Tony Pollard did lead the league in carries inside the opposing 30-yard line last season.
Elliott ranks ahead of Rico Dowdle in this backfield, ahead of other touchdown-reliant RBs (Gus Edwards and Ray Davis), and ahead of short-end-of-a-committee types (Zach Charbonnet, Ty Chandler, and Austin Ekeler, to name a few). That’s still not enough to earn him a spot in my top 30, but in a deeper league, I’d understand Flexing him to open the season and hoping that this offense as a whole props him up.
Can Rico Dowdle Break Out as a Fantasy Starter?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.5
- Rushing Yards: 29.6
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
- Receptions: 1.4
- Receiving Yards: 11.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
I don’t have a problem with holding Dowdle; he could be an asset in rather short order if Elliott is cooked, but the wait-and-see approach is best to use here. His next NFL game with 14+ touches will be his first, meaning that even if he transitions to the leader of this backfield, it may be a slow burn for him to prove worthy of our trust.
Dallas is going to create scoring opportunities, and that will put their top ball carrier in the Flex discussion at the very least. That might be doable with time, we just can’t assume it quite yet.
Should Fantasy Managers Start Jerome Ford With Nick Chubb Out?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.5
- Rushing Yards: 39.6
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
- Receptions: 2.0
- Receiving Yards: 15.3
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
This spot isn’t much different than the one Chuba Hubbard finds himself in with the Panthers — the bell cow on an iffy offense with the starter out for at least the first month. I prefer him by two spots to Carolina’s backup option, and that lands him inside my top 30 running backs for Week 1. Barely.
Ford is strictly a volume play. There were 35 qualified running backs last season, and Ford finished 35th in the percentage of carries that gained yardage (72.5%). It’s natural to remember the big run in a prime-time spot after Chubb’s injury, but the fact of the matter is that Ford was very ordinary in his extended work last season; expecting more than that to open 2024 is a bit misguided.
The Cowboys were the best first-down run defense a season ago and allowed only three running backs to reach 14 PPR points in a game. The ceiling is low, but much like Hubbard, the known volume earns him Flex consideration with many backfields not offering that.
Ford is not a target of mine in DFS and isn’t someone I’d be thrilled with rostering in a Guillotine league, but in a redraft setting, if you spent early-round draft capital on the onesie positions, I could see a situation where you’re backed into a corner. He’s viable in a spot like that, though I’d still lean on slotting a receiver like Brian Thomas Jr, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba into your Flex if you have the option.
Fantasy Managers Should Not Sweat CeeDee Lamb’s Offseason
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 19.6
- Receptions: 6.7
- Receiving Yards: 88.1
- Receiving TDs: 0.6
He’s paid, he’s happy, and he’s starting every single week for you.
Since Week 15 of 2022:
- 61.5 more PPR points than any other WR
- 8.8% more PPG than WR2 Tyreek Hill
- More games over 32 points (six) than sub-15 point games (four)
I was close to putting Lamb in his own receiver tier this preseason; while I ultimately included Hill in that top shelf at the position, Lamb is pretty clearly worth every penny you spent on him this offseason. That means counting on him to produce in a big way, even against the best EPA defense from 2023.
Can Brandin Cooks See Enough Work To Have Fantasy Viability?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.5
- Receptions: 2.7
- Receiving Yards: 32.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
Cooks was able to salvage 2023 thanks to an unsustainable touchdown rate, tallying six top-20 finishes at the position despite averaging a career-low 1.25 yards per route run. That, friends, is what we like to label as an aberration.
I do this for a living, and mock/real drafts create easily digestible content. That’s to say that I’ve been drafting for 3+ months at this point – there are few players of which I have literally zero shares: Cooks is on that list. I don’t need an excuse to pass on him (could Jalen Tolbert be a 2024 sleeper with time?), but the Browns allowing the fewest yards per drive last season (20.8) since the 2008 Steelers is certainly noteworthy.
He’s outside of my top 50 at the position, and that’s not changing until I’m proven wrong multiple times, even as a part of this high-octane offense.
Is Amari Cooper’s Fantasy Value Safe With Watson?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 13.3
- Receptions: 4.3
- Receiving Yards: 64.7
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
Despite clearing 1,100 yards in each of his two seasons with the Browns, Cooper was rarely picked before the fifth round this summer with fantasy managers essentially universally preferring WR2s in good spots (Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith).
Only time will tell if that was wise, but I do expect the veteran receiver to finish better this week than his ADP suggests most do. The Cowboys led the league in pressure rate last season (44.7%), and that allowed DaRon Bland to thrive in his aggressive style. There are two ends to that sword, however, and with Bland out for this game (and potentially all of September), this secondary is thin.
The Joe Flacco experience was fun last season, but don’t forget that Cooper was a top-10 producer at the position in two of Watson’s five full games. Call me crazy – I’m a fan of established receivers with a QB connection facing a team that is going to require them to put points on the board.
Patches O’Houlihan had his five Ds of dodgeball, and I’ve got my five Ds of receivers I’d play Cooper over this week: Drake, DK, Deebo, DJ, and DeVonta.
Can Jerry Jeudy Be a Fantasy Starter in a New Home?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.5
- Receptions: 2.8
- Receiving Yards: 38.0
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
The Cowboys were the best defense by a wide margin last season when it comes to creating pressure without blitzing (42.7%, the only team north of 39.3%), and that forces their opponents to beat them with timing.
I suppose it’s possible Jeudy and Watson develop a connection over time, but I’m not going to project it until I see it. Jeudy scored just 11 times during 57 games with the Broncos and is firmly off of my radar, much the way Cooks is on the other sideline until I have a reason to pivot.
The more I look at this game, the more I think Cooper is a threat to lead the league in targets in Week 1.
Jake Ferguson Is Primed To Be a Fantasy Breakout Star
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.0
- Receptions: 3.6
- Receiving Yards: 37.4
- Receiving TDs: 0.3
I went on record this preseason as saying that, of the tight ends being drafted as fantasy starters, Ferguson would prove to be the best value; I stand by it. I took it a step further on the PFN Fantasy Podcast Bold Predictions episode (Aug. 26) by saying that he’d find the end zone 10 times this season; I stand by it.
The scoring equity is there in Dallas’ offense, but don’t mistake Ferguson as a one-trick pony. His aDOT (average depth of target) ranked 18th of 26 qualifiers at the position, a role that should give him a reasonable floor to buoy his value on a week-to-week basis. This is a position full of violent swings in terms of production, but Ferguson projects as the type that can challenge the peaks of most without asking you to absorb significant risk.
He ended last regular season with six straight games of 6+ targets and then showed out on the big stage against the Green Bay Packers in the playoff loss (10 catches for 93 yards and a pair of scores). If I’m right with Cooks being on his last legs as a feared part of this passing game, Ferguson could ascend to Tier 1 — you don’t need to be as passionate about him as I am, but you’re playing him weekly and not thinking twice about it.
Can David Njoku Finally Become a Reliable Fantasy Option?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.5
- Receptions: 3.7
- Receiving Yards: 41.5
- Receiving TDs: 0.3
If you’re simply looking at box scores from last season, falling in love with Njoku is justifiable. In 2023, he set career highs in catches, targets, yards, and touchdowns with relative ease — not bad for a season in which the starting signal-caller was active for just six games.
The problem here is threefold:
- Njoku faces more target competition this season.
- The injury-prone quarterback still has the same shoulder injury to worry about.
- The backup quarterback has changed.
Jerry Jeudy’s addition may not seem like an overly impactful move, but for a team that ranked 23rd in pass rate over expectation last season — despite Nick Chubb missing the majority of the season — there isn’t a ton of wiggle room in terms of opportunity count.
- With Deshaun Watson: 1.7 points per target, 14.7% target share, 1.3 aDOT
- With Joe Flacco: 2.1 points per target, 24.6% target share, 6.7 aDOT
Njoku remains a back-end TE1 for me for now, especially in a game that could be higher scoring than most of Cleveland’s contests this season, but the risk of the floor falling out needs to be accounted for. I wouldn’t hate the idea of selling high should we get a few big games in this favorable run in the first seven weeks.
