Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton was touted as a breakout candidate heading into the 2020 season, but his fantasy football outlook was derailed early on due to a shoulder injury and season-ending ACL tear. Is Sutton a value at his current ADP playing opposite explosive second-year receiver Jerry Jeudy?
Courtland Sutton’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Before diving into Sutton’s fantasy outlook, it’s important to briefly recap his collegiate and professional career. The Broncos drafted him in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft.
Collegiate dynamo at SMU and young phenom in Denver
Sutton had a heck of a career at SMU. He finished with the sixth-most receptions (195) and receiving yards (3,220) in school history. Sutton also recorded the second-most touchdowns (31). His statistical body of work translated well to the next level.
He caught 42 of 84 targets for 704 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns during his rookie season in 2018. Sutton followed that up with an exceptional 2019 campaign, finishing with 124 targets, 72 catches, 1,112 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns. Despite catching passes from quarterbacks Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, and Brandon Allen, Sutton put his potential on display.
The emergence of Jerry Jeudy
With Sutton out for the season early on, Jeudy took over as the Broncos’ No. 1 receiver in 2020. In 2021, the duo will operate as 1A and 1B options. Jeudy’s rookie season had ups and downs. He caught 52 of 113 targets for 856 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.
Additionally, Jeudy accumulated an astounding 1,522 receiving air yards (indicates how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught). The Broncos have 62 available targets and 600 available receiving air yards entering this season. We project that Denver will have more than enough targets for both receivers to be properly fed.
Sutton has a few hurdles that could affect his fantasy outlook in 2021. Some receivers get recalibrated to the NFL faster than others when recovering from a torn ACL. Jeudy and tight end Noah Fant could outperform Sutton during the first half of the season if this happens. Another hurdle that may keep managers up at night is the Broncos’ quarterback battle between Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock.
Many fantasy managers are most likely championing for Bridgewater to win the job. He finished 2020 as the fantasy QB18 while completing 69% of his passes. Bridgewater does a great job of positioning passes on target to assist his receivers. He is also efficient in throwing the football downfield.
Continuity on the offensive line
The Broncos’ offensive line should also be able to provide the quarterbacks adequate protection to deliver the football to its receivers. Denver will have a high percentage of their starters on the offensive line returning this season. This also bodes well for the running game with Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams.
It would be beneficial for the entire Broncos offense if the coaching staff sticks to one quarterback. Nothing knocks off the continuity of a team more than a quarterback carousel.
Fantasy projection
We project Sutton for around 135 targets, 83 receptions, 1,200 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns in 2021. He and Jeudy will see the most targets, followed by Fant. It would be surprising to see receivers Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler combine for more than 80 targets.
Courtland Sutton’s ADP
Sutton has an ADP of 85.3 on Fleaflicker, placing him as the WR34. Similarly, he has an ADP of 77.31 as the WR34 overall in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship. In half PPR formats on Sleeper, Sutton’s ADP is higher at 75.1.
Should you draft Sutton in 2021?
Most definitely. Sutton is a No. 1 receiver that’s readily available in the seventh round of fantasy drafts. Since he and Jeudy should see similar volume, I recommend taking the “last man available” approach. Sutton is a low-end WR2 in PPR formats.
