Corey Davis Fantasy Outlook: Start or sit in Week 17?

Heading into their Week 17 matchup against the Houston Texans, WR Corey Davis looks to cap off what has been his breakout fantasy football season. In his fourth season with the Tennessee Titans, Davis has set new career-highs in nearly every category. Should Corey Davis be in your starting lineup with fantasy championships on the line with one final game remaining?

Corey Davis has finally been able to put it all together

After being selected fifth overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, Corey Davis carried high expectations. However, Davis’ career hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. His rookie season was underwhelming, with only 375 receiving yards and a 52.3% catch rate. He saw a jump in 2018, with 112 targets and 891 receiving yards, but his catch rate was still just 58.0%.

More “by the numbers” with Corey Davis

In 2019, despite playing in 15 games, Davis was lost a bit in the offense. Part of it was the change at QB, and another factor was A.J. Brown’s addition in the draft. Davis caught 43 of his 69 targets (62.3%) for 601 yards but only scored twice. This was also the first full season with Ryan Tannehill under center. Chemistry does not come overnight, but there were glimpses of things to come. Though, I don’t think we expected the leap that Corey Davis finally made the season.

In his 13 games played this season, Corey Davis has 60 receptions on 81 targets for 945 yards and five touchdowns. He needs six receptions to set a new personal best and is 55 yards away from his first 1,000 yards season. His yards and touchdowns are both already career-highs, as well as his 74.1% catch percentage. 

Through Week 16, Corey Davis is the WR32, averaging 14 PPR points per game. Of his 13 games played, Davis has been a top-24 WR in five games and has been a WR3 or better in nine weeks (69%).

Both Corey Davis and A.J. Brown have had great seasons for Tennessee

It’s worth pointing out that while the focus is on Derrick Henry for the Titans offense (rightfully so), both Corey Davis and Brown have succeeded. 

While Davis is 55 yards away from 1,000, Brown is right behind him at 924 yards. Corey Davis and Brown have 60 receptions apiece, and their respective averages are 15.8 and 15.4 yards.

Brown finished his rookie season with 1,051 yards and has a chance to become the first Titans wide receiver since Derrick Mason to top 1,000 receiving yards in consecutive years. He also missed two games early in the season but has topped 100 yards three times.

Both players can join a small group in Week 17

If both players can cross the threshold in Week 17, they would join a small club of wide receivers. So far, 12 players across the NFL have gotten to 1,000 receiving yards this season. Five have caught at least 100 passes, and all but two (Justin Jefferson, 79, and D.J. Moore, 61) have at least 80 receptions. Only four WRs (Ridley, Metcalf, Jefferson, and Moore) have averaged at least 15 yards per reception. 

They would become only the second pair of WRs on the same team to have over 1,000 yards in 2020, joining D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson of the Panthers. For all pass catchers, the only other duo is Chiefs’ superstars Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

Should you start or sit Corey Davis in your fantasy championships in Week 17?

Unlike last week when Corey Davis put up a goose egg, he has two factors working in his favor. Firstly, it won’t be snowing. Secondly, the matchup against the Houston Texans is much more advantageous.

The matchup with the Texans

The Texans defense has allowed five 20-point PPR fantasy performances to wide receivers in the past six weeks alone. The season-ending suspension of Texans cornerback Bradley Roby following Week 12 was a significant hit to this defense. In the four weeks since then, the Texans are 27th in fantasy points per game to WRs (42.33) and allow 188 yards per game (sixth-most).

Houston is also coming off one of its worst performances of the 2020 season against WRs, having allowed 256 yards and 49 PPR points against Cincinnati. Even when not being 100% sure of who will cover who in this game, it doesn’t matter too much. After leading the entire NFL with 236.0 fantasy points allowed in coverage in 2019, Vernon Hargreaves currently leads the way with 190.8 allowed through Week 16. On the other side, Phillip Gaines is questionable (knee), leaving Keion Crossen to start. 

When these teams played in Week 6, Corey Davis missed the game. Yet, Brown (five for 58, and one TD) and Adam Humphries (six for 64, and one TD) had big games. Even TE Anthony Firkser had a massive day with eight receptions for 113 yards and one touchdown. 

The team also has an incentive to leave them in the game

The Titans failed to clinch their division in Week 16, but have multiple ways to get it done this week. If they beat the Texans or if Indianapolis loses, they win the AFC South. They can also earn a playoff spot with a loss by the Ravens or Dolphins. The motivation is there, which is enormous in Week 17. Having players on teams with something to play for this week is a big advantage. You will see a lot of players rested this week or pulled early once they get reps in, making it difficult for fantasy. 

Fire Corey Davis up as a low-end fantasy WR1 in Week 17. A.J. Brown also finds himself inside the top 5 for the week in a fantastic matchup.

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Tommy Garrett is a writer for PFN covering fantasy football. You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.