Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp had a second consecutive season marred by injury. Still talented but perhaps no longer capable of playing at an elite level, should fantasy football managers avoid Kupp in Best Ball drafts?
Cooper Kupp’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
A year ago, before a preseason hamstring strain lowered his cost, Kupp was still a consensus first-round pick in fantasy drafts. His 2022 season was cut short due to injury, but he was still the best wide receiver in fantasy.
Kupp averaged 22.4 fantasy points per game in nine contests as a follow-up to his historic 25.9 points per game in 2021. His efficiency had dropped, but the volume was everything we wanted it to be. Naturally, Kupp was given the benefit of the doubt ahead of 2023 drafts.
Last season, though, Kupp clearly wasn’t as good. He was slowed by an ankle injury but still managed to play in 12 games. Kupp averaged a mere 13.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR23.
The emergence of Puka Nacua played a big role in Kupp’s decreased production. Kupp only saw a 25.6% target share and was targeted on just 25.6% of his routes. By contrast, those numbers were over 30% in 2021 and 2022. Kupp also averaged a mere 1.99 yards per route run, 0.62 lower than the year prior.
Kupp’s 26-game run from the start of the 2021 season through the midpoint of the 2022 season was easily the greatest of all time. Since then, though, he’s been hurt multiple times and hasn’t produced at the same level when healthy.
Should You Draft Kupp in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Heading into the 2024 season, the Rams have a healthy Matthew Stafford, which is great for everyone. However, Nacua has established himself as the team’s new WR1 and is rightfully being treated as such. Kupp is in a more complementary role.
Kupp is now 31 years old. While he does have a skill set that should age well, for him to be a worthwhile pick in fantasy, he needs to rebound to some degree from last year’s disappointing year. It is always risky to ask players over 30 to bounce back after down years.
There’s definitely a world where Kupp returns to being around a 16-points-per-game receiver. If that happens, he will end up being a great value at cost.
Unfortunately, I believe Kupp’s body is going to continue betraying him. When the injuries start over 30, they don’t often stop.
Kupp had more games with single-digit fantasy points last season than games over 20. He had just four WR1 weeks all season and wholly underwhelmed in the Rams’ lone playoff game — the same game Nacua had 181 yards.
Kupp is going outside the top 24 wide receivers. At that price, you can justify taking the shot, given what we know his ceiling to be.
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However, it’s very hard for me to look down at a slew of young receivers whose best seasons are in front of them and take the old guy who we know for a fact his best seasons are behind him.
