Drew Brees and Jameis Winston share a surprising similarity

Jameis Winston finally found a new home after his departure from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, signing a one-year, $1.1 million deal with the New Orleans Saints. On the surface, this decision might seem confusing. After all, Winston and New Orleans’ current starter, Drew Brees, could not be more different as players. Brees has been the model of consistency for years, while Winston is one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in recent memory. However, they are similar in one respect: they both grade remarkably highly according to PFN’s Offensive Share Metric (OSM), which measures how responsible a player was for their own statistics.

Brees and Winston’s OSM comparison

In the table below, you can see Brees and Winston’s OSM grades from the last four seasons, along with how those grades ranked among other qualifying quarterbacks during that season.

Other than Brees’ 2017 campaign, both players have maintained consistently high grades over the last four years, often ranking near the top of the league. That probably comes as a surprise to many, since Brees is likely a first-ballot Hall of Famer, while Winston is best known for throwing interceptions and for his involvement in numerous criminal allegations.

However, it’s important to remember that the OSM does not measure how good a player is; it indicates offensive impact, not skill or talent. And for both Brees and Winston, the amount of influence they have had over their own statistics over the last four seasons was far higher than average.

A more magnified look at the two quarterbacks’ week to week grades reveals similar results. The graph below shows Brees and Winston’s grades during each week of the 2019 regular season, in comparison to the league average (represented by the yellow line).

The chart might be a bit difficult to parse, but that is largely the result of Brees and Winston having similar grades for much of the season. There were some differences; notably, Winston trended slightly upwards as 2019 wore on, while Brees did the opposite. Brees also missed quite a few games, so we can only guess how he would have performed during those missing weeks. Overall, however, both quarterbacks remained above the league average for most of the season.

Brees and Winston have similar OSM grades, but for very different reasons

The similarities between Brees and Winston’s OSM grades paint a fascinating picture. Arguably more interesting, however, is why their grades were so similar. Because in each player’s case, the factors involved were entirely different. For Brees, his high grades were primarily the result of his ludicrous completion percentages over the last four years. Since 2016, his completion percentage has never dropped below 70%, which ranked first in the NFL among qualifying quarterbacks in each of those seasons other than the first. Meanwhile, Winston’s completion percentage was never above 65% during that time period.

However, that relationship was reversed when it comes to their intended air yards (IAY) and completed air yards (CAY). These metrics measure how far the ball traveled in the air before being caught by a receiver across all of a quarterback’s attempts and completions. Put another way, they measure of how aggressively a quarterback pushed the ball downfield. Across the last four years, Winston averaged 10.63 IAY and 8.05 CAY, consistently ranking inside the top three in both categories. Brees, on the other hand, performed significantly worse in both areas, with an average of 6.93 IAY and 5.53 CAY.

The discrepancies in both completion percentage and IAY/CAY for Brees and Winston are closely related. After all, passes thrown further downfield are generally more challenging to complete than shorter passes. Naturally, the situation isn’t quite that simple. Throwing shorter passes won’t lead to a higher completion percentage unless you are an accurate passer. Drew Lock, for example, had an IAY of 6.9, but his completion percentage was more than 10% lower. Similarly, throwing the ball further downfield won’t always result in a lower completion percentage. Just look at Ryan Tannehill’s performance last season, where he posted an IAY of 9.6 while still maintaining a 70.3% completion percentage.

Examining Brees and Winston’s statistics is a fascinating study in the different ways that a quarterback can influence their offenses. In this sense, both players have been incredibly successful over the last four seasons. Brees with his clinical efficiency, and Winston with constant, often self-destructive aggression. Unfortunately, quarterback efficacy doesn’t always translate into team success, an area in which Brees has a clear advantage over his new backup.

The Saints went 13-3 before losing in the Wild Card Round, while Tampa Bay finished the season at 7-9. In a sport where the ultimate goal is to win a Super Bowl, the team that got closer was more successful, at least in a vacuum. That said, you can’t deny that Winston was productive. He led the NFL with 5109 yards and also threw 33 touchdown passes. The problem is, he also threw an almost inconceivable 30 interceptions, resulting in what might be my favorite quarterback stat line of all time. Presumably, the Saints are hoping that a change of environment will help Winston become a more consistent player.

The Saints offense would look very different with Winston under center

Rumor has it that 2020 will be Brees’ final season. If that is true, New Orleans will soon be in the market for a new franchise quarterback. Taking a flyer on Winston, and hoping they can maximize his upside, makes a great deal of sense. After all, if anything can fix Winston’s inconsistencies, it would be learning from Brees and Sean Payton, one of the best quarterbacks of all time and one of the best offensive minds in recent memory. However, even if that were to happen, he would never be able to run the Saints offense as it currently operates. Its focus on quick, efficient passes doesn’t play to his strengths.

That is what makes the signing of Winston as a backup so interesting. When Brees was hurt last season, Teddy Bridgewater was able to operate the offense at a reasonably high level because he plays the quarterback position similarly to Brees. That almost certainly will not be the case with Winston, who appears to be at his best in a vertical passing offense. For him to play well, the Saints would need to revamp their offensive identity entirely. Fortunately, Payton is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, so I have little doubt that he would manage it. The only question is whether or not Winston proves that he is worth the effort.