The Washington Commanders and New York Giants renew their NFC East rivalry in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head over to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.
Washington Commanders (-3.5, 44) at New York Giants
There should be little doubt that the Washington Commanders are on the right side of this game, given that they are a top-10 team in our PR+ and the Giants are in the bottom 10.
The problem is that we just saw how much less effective Jayden Daniels looked with his rib injury, which gives a slight pause. However, they were facing one of the top defenses in the league, and the Giants are a tier or two lower than the Bears.
We haven’t seen the Giants yet in Week 8, as they play on Monday Night Football. However, entering this week, the offense has scored just 10 points in the previous two games. They did well on defense last time out against the Commanders, but that was an offense still very much finding its footing under Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury.
Assuming Daniels is only going to get healthier, Washington should win this by a touchdown or more. But you may just want to hang on in terms of betting it because this line could move around if Daniels misses practice. It’s a calculated risk because if he seems fine, this line could just be a point or two in the Commanders’ direction.
Prediction: Commanders 23, Giants 17
Pick: Commanders -3.5
Commanders at Giants Game Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: Washington begins a stretch this week where they play an NFC East team three times in four weeks (Eagles in Week 11 and Cowboys in Week 12.
QB: Against the Bears, Jayden Daniels threw 12 deep passes, five more than he had attempted in any other game.
Offense: Tress Way had five punts on Sunday against the Bears – he had four in September.
Defense: Washington has held its opponents to five first downs on 22 third-down conversion attempts over the past two weeks (22.7%). Through six weeks, that rate stood at 46.2%.
Fantasy: For the first time this, Brian Robinson failed to score and didn’t reach 100 yards on the ground. He’s the lead man in this backfield, but without a 20-yard run in five straight and just a single catch over his past three games, this fantasy profile is a little thinner than you might assume.
Betting: The Commanders have seen their past five road games (and seven of their past eight).
New York Giants
Team: The last time Daniel Jones threw a touchdown pass at home was January 1, 2023 – one day before the Damar Hamlin injury.
QB: Monday was Daniel Jones’ fourth game this season with 20-plus completions and zero touchdown passes. Since 2020, this is the third instance in which a QB has “accomplished” that: Jared Goff did it in 2021, and … well, Daniel Jones did it in 2020.
Offense: Since 2022, only twice has an NFC team failed to score more than 18 points in at least six games through Week 8—the 2023 Giants (seven) and the 2024 Giants (six).
Defense: The Giants didn’t allow a red zone touchdown on Monday, but it didn’t matter … again. The Giants are 0-3 this season when not allowing a red zone touchdown (all other NFL teams are 20-7 this year in such spots).
Fantasy: Tyrone Tracy had 145 rushing yards, the most by a rookie drafted in the fifth round or later since Phillip Lindsay (Week 13, 2018 at Bengals: 157 rush yards).
Betting: The Giants have covered 12 of their past 15 games when playing on short rest (six straight when that game is played in front of their home crowd, including a Week 4 cover against the Cowboys).
