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, this week, they will instead get a Sun Belt showdown with Georgia State and Arkansas State. Now, that might not sound as exciting for some, but if we can win money, why not watch the Sun Belt?
Both of these teams are coming in hot. Georgia State had a bye week last week. But in their previous contest, they won 49-29 over the East Carolina Pirates. Arkansas State played their rescheduled game against Central Arkansas that was supposed to take place on September 19th last week, and they cruised to a 50-27 victory to even their record.
Georgia State has played only two games so far this season and we’re in mid-October. Nevertheless, their offense seems to be on the right track. Even without quarterback Dan Ellington, who was under center for the last two seasons, Georgia State still ranks 56th in the FBS in passing offense and an impressive 10th in rushing yards, averaging 235 yards per game. The team is 16th in the FBS in scoring offense as they average 40 points per game.
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If you want to talk about impressive offenses, look no further than the Arkansas State Red Wolves. The Red Wolves are eighth in the FBS in passing offense with 342.5 yards per game and rank 29th out of 76 FBS teams in scoring offense. Their quarterback Logan Bonner has looked impressive, especially when compared to Georgia State’s Cornelious Brown.
This game is a battle of two different offenses, one that excels on the ground and the other in the air. Either way, they are offenses that are doing well. Georgia State has piled up a total of 80 points in their two games while Arkansas State has 132 points in their four contests. Neither of these teams are very interested in playing defense, and even though this total is quite high, I still like the over 71.5. Combined, these teams are 5-1 to the over on the season.
One quick note to keep in mind, the weather might play a factor in this one with 20 mph winds and a chance of rain in the forecast. If that is the case, I would lean towards Georgia State getting the win. The ground game should be able to compete even in bad conditions.
Official College Football Picks Week 7 |
Over 71.5 total points scored (-115) 2.5 units
Lean: Georgia State +3.5 (-110) 1 unit
The SEC showdown that everyone will be watching Saturday night
Georgia vs Alabama (-6)
This is going to be a good football game and there was no way I would leave it off my college football Week 7 picks card. The No. 3-ranked Georgia Bulldogs travel to Tuscaloosa for a battle with the No. 2-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. This game is going to have immense implications on the college football playoff, with the loser possibly falling out of the top four. Realistically, this could be the game that’s looked back on at the end of the regular season as a determining factor for one of these two teams being in or out of the playoffs.
Georgia was given quite the scare last week, trailing Tennessee at the end of the first half. However, the momentum swung in the second half as Georgia went on to shut out the Vols offense, allowing just 71 yards and four first downs, while the Bulldogs’ defense forced three turnovers. It was impressive and helped remind all of us why Georgia has the most terrifying defense in the nation.
Alabama is also coming off of a little bit of a scare last week themselves, winning a much more competitive game than expected against the Ole Miss Rebels. It was the most-watched college football game of the season so far, which was to be expected when two offensive powerhouses meet. The game ended with 107 points scored, with Alabama coming out on top 63-48.
Alabama was clinical with the ball through the air as Mac Jones went 28 for 32 for 417 yards and two TDs despite the Crimson Tide having less time of possession than Ole Miss.
Now, these teams have obviously played before. Something I found interesting is that Georgia has led or been tied for 118 minutes and 54 seconds in the last two meetings. They ultimately lost both those games.
So far this year, Alabama has played three high scoring shootouts against second-tier defenses. They are going to be stepping up to a whole other class here, with Georgia ranked second in the nation in defense. The Bulldogs defense is giving up just 12.3 points per game on 3.7 yards per play. Whereas, the Crimson Tide defense is giving up 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.
This one comes down to strength and weaknesses. Georgia’s strength is their defense and Alabama’s strength is their offense. However, I think defense wins the day in Tuscaloosa. Jones will come back down to earth as the Bulldogs look to limit Alabama’s possesions and grind the clock. Georgia wins and this game stays well under the total.
Official College Football Picks Week 7 |
Under 59 total points scored (-110) 1 unit
Georgia +6 (-110) 2.5 units
Louisville at Notre Dame (-16.5)
We have another ACC contest to consider for Saturday when the Louisville Cardinals (1-3) meet the fourth-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-0). The reality here is that the Notre Dame offense is simply too much for the Cardinals. Notre Dame has a tough defense against both the run and the pass, making it impossible for Louisville to stay in this game. It is a big spread, but I am going to lay the points.
Official College Football Picks Week 7 | Notre Dame -16.5 (-115) 2 units
UCF (-3.5) vs Memphis
This game is going to have fireworks, with an over/under that currently sits at 75. These two teams are very similar and usually play close matchups, which is why getting more than a field goal at home is enough for me to go with Memphis. The Tigers have a bit better defense and are more disciplined. UCF has committed 39 penalties over their last two games. Take Memphis and the points.
Official College Football Picks Week 7 | Memphis Tigers +3.5 (-110) 2 units