Chicago Bears TE Cole Kmet has improved his fantasy football points per game every year of his career. Can he keep it going entering his fifth professional season, or has he fallen too far down the target hierarchy with the addition of all the new weapons in this offense?
Should You Select Cole Kmet at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 135th Overall (TE16)
- Consistent but Limited Production: Kmet has improved his fantasy points per game every year, finishing as the overall TE9 last season with 10.7 ppg. However, his upside is limited, making him a less appealing option in fantasy drafts.
- Impact of New Weapons: The Bears have added several new pass-catchers, including Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift. This increased competition for targets is likely to negatively impact Kmet’s fantasy value.
- Role in the Offense: Kmet was second on the team in targets last season, but with the new additions, he may fall to fourth or fifth in the target hierarchy. This reduction in volume will likely result in a decline in fantasy production.
- ADP Analysis: Kmet is currently being drafted as TE16, No. 135 overall. I have him ranked slightly higher at TE14, but the limited upside makes him a low-priority target in drafts.
- Final Verdict: Kmet is a safe, low-upside tight end option. He should not be a primary target in drafts, but if he’s available late and you need a tight end, he could serve as a last-resort option with the potential to be dropped early in the season.
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PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Cole Kmet
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Kmet is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus TE rankings instead.Â
10) Jake Ferguson, TE | Dallas Cowboys
11) Brock Bowers, TE | Las Vegas Raiders
12) Dallas Goedert, TE | Philadelphia Eagles
13) T.J. Hockenson, TE | Minnesota Vikings
14) Dalton Schultz, TE | Houston Texans
15) Cole Kmet, TE | Chicago Bears
16) Pat Freiermuth, TE | Pittsburgh Steelers
17) Luke Musgrave, TE | Green Bay Packers
18) Taysom Hill, TE | New Orleans Saints
19) Cade Otton, TE | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20) Hunter Henry, TE | New England Patriots
Kmet’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
Last season, I completely dismissed Kmet as someone worth drafting in fantasy. Technically, I was wrong. Kmet averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall TE9.
But was I really wrong?
Sure, Kmet was a TE1 and worth starting every week. But what exactly does 10 ppg do for us? We can find comparable production with any random touchdown-or-bust TE2. Therein lies the problem with Kmet: There just isn’t any upside.
Last season, Kmet commanded a 19.3% target share and was targeted on 21.6% of his routes run. His 1.7 yards per route run was eighth in the league, and only Sam LaPorta scored more touchdowns than Kmet’s six.
The Bears are getting a massive QB upgrade going from Justin Fields to Caleb Williams. While that stands to benefit Kmet, the Bears also added three capable pass-catchers to the team.
Last year, Kmet was competing with DJ Moore for targets. That was really it. Kmet was second on the team in targets. This season, Kmet will be competing with Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift.
The addition of merely one of those new players would be enough to have a significant negative impact on Kmet’s fantasy value. To add all three is devastating.
Even if Williams becomes the first 4,000-yard passer in team history, it would be a major upset if Kmet was even able to reach last year’s numbers. The most likely scenario is a reduction in performance.
Is Kmet a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
It’s not exactly a secret that Kmet’s increased target competition is affecting his fantasy value. Even though he was the TE9 last year, his ADP this year is TE16, No. 133 overall. Coming off the best season of his career, Kmet is cheaper than ever.
I have Kmet ranked as my TE14. It’s fair to be bullish on the revamped Bears offense, but Kmet projects to be no higher than fourth in targets, with the potential to be as low as fifth.
When drafting a late-round tight end, there’s no point in taking a 10 ppg max guy with low upside. You can stream that. You’re better off taking a swing at someone with a higher ceiling.
With that said, everyone needs to draft a tight end. If you wait until the very last round or two and Kmet is still there, there are certainly worse options.
The main point is to not go out of your way to draft Kmet. He shouldn’t be someone you are looking to target. Instead, treat him as a last-resort fallback option that you can drop early in the season if a waiver wire tight end catches your eye.
