Clyde Edwards-Helaire is at a pivotal point in his career as it pertains to his dynasty value entering the 2022 season. After being surprisingly drafted in the first round by the Kansas City Chiefs in 2020, Edwards-Helaire has failed to live up to admittedly lofty expectations. How should dynasty fantasy football managers value Edwards-Helaire going forward?
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s dynasty profile for 2022
Heading into the 2020 season, Jonathan Taylor was widely viewed as the RB1 of that rookie class. Then, the Chiefs made Edwards-Helaire the first running back off the board in the first round. The prospect of Edwards-Helaire being Kareem Hunt 2.0 for the Chiefs was too tantalizing for fantasy managers to pass up.
As a rookie, Edwards-Helaire was a first-round redraft pick and sometimes went ahead of Taylor at the 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts. To say he’s disappointed would be a massive understatement.
In 2020, Edwards-Helaire averaged 13.5 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB22 (minimum eight games played). Last season, he played even worse, averaging just 12 ppg and finishing as the RB26.
Now entering his third NFL season, is this where Edwards-Helaire finally shines and posts an RB1 season? The answer will determine how dynasty managers should value Edwards-Helaire in 2022 and beyond.
Fantasy projection for Edwards-Helaire
The problem for Edwards-Helaire is he really has no excuse. He has been part of the Chiefs’ explosive offense featuring the best quarterback in football, Patrick Mahomes, and two of the best pass catchers in the NFL in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Over the past several years, we’ve seen RB1 or RB1-level performance out of the likes of Hunt, Damien Williams, and Spencer Ware. Yet, Edwards-Helaire was definitively the worst running back of the Chiefs’ three main backs last season.
Edwards-Helaire did not post a single week of 20+ fantasy points in 2021. His best weekly finish was RB10. Darrel Williams, meanwhile, had three games over 20 fantasy points, including an overall RB1 finish in Week 10. Even Jerick McKinnon was able to excel in a feature role, albeit in the NFL playoffs, scoring 26.2 fantasy points against the Steelers.
Since being drafted, the unathletic, unexplosive, slow former UDFA Williams has averaged more fantasy points per game (14) in his 10 games without Edwards-Helaire active than Edwards-Helaire has in either of his two seasons. Williams has been the better player, both in reality and fantasy.
Ronald Jones’ impact on Edwards-Helaire’s 2022 dynasty value
All things considered, the Chiefs signing Ronald Jones in 2022 free agency has to be viewed as a win for Edwards-Helaire’s dynasty value. The Chiefs were always going to bring in another back, especially with Williams and McKinnon being free agents. They could’ve signed a number of guys ranging from Leonard Fournette to Sony Michel to Melvin Gordon. They went with Jones, one of the least imposing free agent running backs available.
That’s the good news. The bad news is Jones may very well be a better runner than Edwards-Helaire. Jones lost his job to Fournette because Fournette is really good at football — not because Jones was bad.
Andy Reid has already openly praised Jones’ running ability and indicated he will be part of the offense. Edwards-Helaire certainly has a higher chance at fending off Jones stealing work than he would have against several other backs. However, Jones could easily take 50-60% of the early-down carries as well as goal-line rushes.
Jones taking away rushes wouldn’t be a big deal if Edwards-Helaire were the receiving back we expected coming out of LSU. Instead, he’s been completely marginalized in the passing game. Williams straight up took the third-down job away from Edwards-Helaire last season, averaging 3.3 targets per game against Edwards-Helaire’s 2.3. If he loses part of his rushing work, his goal-line work, and isn’t used in the passing game, he may legitimately have no fantasy value.
What is Edwards-Helaire’s future beyond 2022?
Edwards-Helaire is entering his third NFL season at just 23 years old. He’s still young and will be just 25 when his rookie deal expires. No matter what happens over the next two seasons, he will get a second contract. Will it be in Kansas City? At this rate, I wouldn’t count on it.
Edwards-Helaire is at a crossroads moment in his career. Fantasy managers need to see him excel as a pass catcher this season. That’s his key to longevity in the NFL and fantasy.
He recorded 55 receptions in his final season at LSU. If he can establish himself as a competent satellite back, he can be an effective NFL player for the rest of the decade.
The concern for dynasty managers is if Edwards-Helaire has another down season, he may tumble all the way into a career backup role. Someone will always have reason to sign him, but for a player that was a consensus top-20 dynasty asset two years ago, it’s a terrifying prospect that he may end up as end-of-bench fodder.
What can fantasy managers expect from Edwards-Helaire?
Simply put, I don’t see Edwards-Helaire turning things around. Typically, first-round picks get a ton of leeway to falter and bounce back. In just his second season, the Chiefs already showed signs of giving up on him. They didn’t trust him on third downs, and by the end of the season, he lost his job to both Williams and McKinnon.
One part of the problem I haven’t mentioned to this point is Edwards-Helaire’s health issues. He missed three games as a rookie and seven games as a sophomore. He’s dealt with a high ankle sprain, a hip issue, and a collarbone injury. This certainly played a part in him losing his job last season.
I expect the Chiefs to give Edwards-Helaire another fair opportunity to seize the primary role. He’ll never be a three-down back, but he can be the 1A in a timeshare. Dynasty managers need to decide if they’re willing to risk the chance Edwards-Helaire loses his job completely and is nothing more than an RB4 after the 2022 season.
Right now, Edwards-Helaire is valued as a low RB2/high RB3. If you can sell him at cost or a little more, I’d recommend doing so. I would only be buying Edwards-Helaire if the price was so cheap that it essentially removed almost all of the risk associated with being wrong.
