The Cleveland Browns received the news they were waiting for all offseason as quarterback Deshaun Watson was suspended for the first six games of the 2022 season. The Browns’ betting odds were previously unavailable with Watson’s status in limbo. Let’s examine the Browns’ current record prediction, their projected win totals, any intriguing prop bets involving the franchise, and the Browns’ odds to win the AFC North, AFC, and Super Bowl in 2023.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise stated and are correct as of August 1 at 9 a.m. ET.
Cleveland Browns record prediction 2022
Following the release of the NFL schedule, Caesars had provided odds and spreads for all but one team: the Browns. Uncertainty about Watson’s availability made the sportsbook play it safe. With Watson sitting for the first six games of the season, the Browns’ betting odds are now available on a game-by-game and season-long basis.
Cleveland is projected as favorites in 12 games, underdogs in four, and a push in one. If the season matches those predictions, the Browns will finish with a 12-4-1 record in 2022.
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Head coach Kevin Stefanski is in an advantageous situation even without Watson. The Browns have the easiest schedule in terms of opponent win totals over the first six weeks of the season. Backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett just needs to manage the team and keep them afloat until Watson’s return.
Currently projected to finish third in the AFC North, the Browns have a tough trek to make the playoffs despite being favored in 12 games. The competition within the division is second only to the AFC West. Even without Watson, the Browns boast a strong and deep roster.
Browns odds, picks, and props
Now that we know the sportsbooks prediction for the Eagles on a week-by-week basis, let’s take a look at their season-long odds for win totals, the division, conference, and the Super Bowl.
- Browns win total: 9.5 (-110)
- Browns to make the NFL playoffs: Yes (-110)
- AFC North winner: +230
- AFC winner: +1200
- Super Bowl winner: 25-to-1
The Browns have been given favorable odds as a darkhorse candidate to emerge as a Super Bowl contender. Surviving the AFC North may not be possible without Watson for six games but having three Wild Cards to fight for can help their playoff quest. If the Browns make the playoffs, this team will be an extremely difficult opponent.
Stefanski will build one of the most balanced and efficient offenses around Watson, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and Amari Cooper. Expect this offensive unit to be explosive but consistent. They can go toe to toe with any in the league, even without a star second receiver.
Having a win line a full 2.5 games under their projected win total is shocking. It would not be surprising if the Browns drop a game or two they were favored in with Brissett. Getting to even 10 wins can land the Browns in the playoffs, so there’s a considerable margin for error based on their individual game lines.
Browns MVP odds and player props
The Browns’ MVP odds and player props took a hit with Watson’s six-game suspension. With Watson’s public reputation and him now officially being unavailable, there’s not a realistic MVP candidate for Cleveland. However, there are numerous props we can play on Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward, Chubb, and others.
The Browns brought back one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and a dominant defensive corps. Cleveland’s identity won’t be sexy with Brissett under center, but it will give Chubb and the defense a time to shine. These are all major factors for our favorite prop plays below.
- MVP
Deshaun Watson 40-to-1 - Defensive Player of the Year
Myles Garrett +700 - Comeback Player of the Year
Deshaun Watson +1000 - Most regular-season rushing yards/touchdowns
Nick Chubb +1000 - Most regular-season sacks
Myles Garrett +750 - Myles Garrett regular-season sacks
Over/Under 13.25 (-115) - Deshaun Watson regular-season passing yards
Over/Under 2850.5 (-110) - Nick Chubb regular-season rushing yards
Over/Under 1200.5 (-115)
We can immediately disregard betting odds on Watson’s ability to win MVP and Comeback Player of the Year. These are trap bets. It’s unlikely we ever see Watson back in the good graces of the public’s opinion after the 24 sexual misconduct allegations that were filed.
Nevertheless, the Browns do have the ability to create a major award winner in 2022. Garrett is arguably the best pure pass rusher in the NFL. He has the best odds in the league to win Defensive Player of the Year and the second best to notch the most regular-season sacks.
The player props listed are extremely attractive for the Browns. We’ll take the over on several but not on everything. Let’s take a look at the best plays for the Browns and their player props for 2022 below.
Browns 2022 picks
The Browns are my top darkhorse Super Bowl pick for the 2022 season. Not only are the Browns’ betting odds to emerge out of the AFC attractive for a sprinkling play, but their on-field abilities should support this bet. The Browns are bringing back a top-five passing defense and should see improvement across the board from a young unit.
The team’s win line of 9.5 is reasonable. With one of the league’s easier schedules and the addition of Watson in Week 7, it’s not shocking the Browns are favored in 12 games. This roster is that good. They’re more well-rounded than every team in the NFL except maybe Tampa Bay, Los Angeles Chargers, or Buffalo.
By taking the over on 9.5 wins, we definitely need to pair that with “yes” to Cleveland reaching the playoffs. Of the other darkhorse AFC winner candidates, the Browns are the ones with the best defense and quarterback. Escaping out of the AFC North will be difficult, but it’s a doable task if Brissett can even manage a 3-3 start.
Player props
The Garrett sack prop bets are conservative based on his 16-sack total last year. Yet, the two-time All-Pro has managed more than 13.25 sacks just twice in his career, largely due to missed games in each of his other three seasons. If Garrett plays more than 14 games, he’s extremely likely to cash in this prop bet with ease.
I also like taking him to lead the NFL in sacks and thus winning Defensive Player of the Year. Garrett’s far from a slam dunk in either category, but we can put multiple bets down on our favorite candidates and still profit. Cleveland’s decision to re-sign Jadeveon Clowney should help take some pressure off Garrett without his teammate stealing too many of his sacks.
The other obvious over for a player prop is Chubb’s rushing total. Chubb will again be the featured back even if Hunt is healthy for the full season. He produced 1,259 yards in just 14 games last year and with a bad, injured quarterback that defenses didn’t respect. Even if Chubb averages fewer carries per game (though he’s averaged 17 per game under Stefanski), he can still hit this total so long as he plays in 14+ games.
The Watson passing prop is a surprising one. He’s clearly superior to Baker Mayfield in every aspect, but Mayfield’s usage under Stefanski was a continued blueprint of how the coach wants to use the position. The days of Watson being the entire offense like he was in Houston are over.
Mayfield averaged no more than 223 yards per game in two seasons under Stefanski. Kirk Cousins also saw a dip in yards per game while Stefanski was his offensive coordinator. Cousins threw for only 240.2 yards per game in 2019, with his career average over 260.
Despite this, the prop value of 2,850.5 passing yards over 11 games extrapolates to 259 per game. Watson is talented enough to get there, but it’s highly unlikely he eclipses that number.
.5u: Browns to win the Super Bowl (25-to-1)
.5u: Browns to win the AFC (+1200)
1u: Browns over 9.5 wins (-110)
1u: Browns to make the playoffs (-110)
1u: Watson under 2850.5 passing yards (-110)
1u: Chubb over 1200.5 rushing yards (-115)
1u: Garrett over 13.25 sacks (-115)
1u: Garrett to have the most sacks in the NFL (+750)
1u: Garrett to win Defensive Player of the Year (+700)