Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud was better than anyone could have possibly expected as a rookie and his supporting cast is stronger now than it was 12 months ago.
The argument could be made that Stroud has a path to pacing the position in fantasy football scoring this season as he develops around a loaded roster. Should you be willing to pay up?
C.J. Stroud’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Special. There is no other way in which to describe Stroud’s rookie season.
He set the NFL record for pass attempts to open a career without an interception (192) while leading the league in both passing yards per game and TD/INT – you know, a statistical two-step that only Joe Montana and Tom Brady had done prior.
In his first professional season, Stroud was able to make Nico Collins a star, put Tank Dell on the map, extract the best out of Noah Brown in his limited opportunities, and get Dalton Schultz to set a career-high in yards per catch.
That’s an impressive resume at face value. But when you consider Stroud did it without a run game (3.7 yards per carry, 29th) behind an offensive line that struggled from the jump, it’s nearing heroic.
If you want to nitpick, it would be Stroud had some underwhelming moments down the stretch. He threw a total of two touchdown passes over the final three games of the fantasy season while completing only 61% of his passes and not recording a 30-yard completion in two of those contests.
You’re reaching.
Not only is that a tiny sample, not only did one of those games against the New York Jets’ elite defense, but they all came without a healthy Dell, one featured an outlier time of possession situation (22:55), and another saw the Texans lead for 77% of their offensive snaps.
None of those pitfalls worry me long-term, especially with Dell healthy and Stefon Diggs now in the mix after being acquired from the Buffalo Bills.
The question of Stroud’s draft tier is twofold: Do you want to spend a late-fourth- or early-fifth-round pick at the position, and how do you evaluate Stroud against Anthony Richardson?
When you talk about mixing velocity and touch and layering throws, few QBs do it as effortlessly as C.J. Stroud.
He’s on an absolute tear to start his career.
— Ian Cummings (@IC_Draft) October 1, 2023
Due to the depth of the receiver position, if you’re planning on this tier of quarterback, I’d make sure to have at least one bell cow running back rostered, understanding that you can load up on potential with your pass catchers in the middle of the draft.
Personally, I lean towards Richardson in this specific debate. His athletic makeup gives him unique upside that a pocket passer doesn’t have access to, and with 20+ signal callers on the roster radar (Deshaun Watson, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Rodgers are in that range), I’m comfortable in absorbing some risk to flirt with the league-winning potential.
Heading into any draft this season, you need to have a basic plan when it comes to addressing the quarterback position. There is plenty of high-end talent that could win you your league, but they won’t come cheap.
This is where tiering is critical — stack up the position and wait out levels as long as you can in an effort to blend upside with value as best you can.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Analysis for C.J. Stroud
I have Stroud projected for 4,671 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 11.4 interceptions. He still winds up at 20.16 fantasy points per game. Anything over 20 is really impressive for a traditional pocket passer.
While Stroud does project out as my QB6, and I have him ranked as my QB7, he’s still not the type of quarterback I think fantasy managers should target.
Stroud is much closer to the QB9 in my projections than he is to the QB4. His most likely range of outcomes is somewhere in the QB10-6 range. Essentially, he’s being drafted close to his ceiling.
I have no doubts that Stroud has the talent and offensive weapons to post a 5,000-yard 50-touchdown season. If he does so, he will smash his ADP and will have been worth drafting no matter where you take him. But we, as fantasy managers, can’t be spending premium picks hoping for once-in-a-generation outcomes.
Stroud is a phenomenal quarterback. The Texans are making the playoffs this year. They’re probably winning the division and are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But in fantasy, managers are better off taking less expensive quarterbacks who are not as good as Stroud, but that have the cheat code that is above-average rushing ability.