Facebook Pixel

    Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Commanders Preview and Predictions: 5 Stats That Could Decide the Game

    The Bengals will have Tee Higgins and Kris Jenkins for the first time this season when they face the Commanders on Monday Night Football.

    Published on

    CINCINNATI – The Cincinnati Bengals are 0-2 for the third year in a row and fourth time in the last five, but reinforcements are on the way.

    Wide receiver Tee Higgins and rookie defensive tackle Kris Jenkins will make their season debuts Monday night against the Washington Commanders.

    Higgins, who injured his hamstring three days before the season opener and missed the first two games, was limited in practice Thursday and Friday.

    Bengals Expected To Get Key Players Back Versus Commanders

    Jenkins injured his thumb the same day Higgins hurt his hamstring and had surgery on it. Jenkins had the stitches removed Friday and is expecting to play Sunday.

    While Higgins should help loosen the coverage on Ja’Marr Chase and help open up the offense, Jenkins’ return might be even more important after the Bengals lost starting defensive tackles B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins to hamstring injuries last week at Kansas City.

    The Bengals are 7.5-point favorites to end their two-game skid in what is a rare must-win game in September.

    Since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 12 teams in 1990, 269 teams have started 0-3, and only four (2.4%) have gone on to make the playoffs. And only one of them, the 1992 San Diego Chargers, advanced.

    Here are five key stats courtesy of TruMedia that could be key in determining the winner, along with our PFN staff predictions:

    Stat: The Bengals have faced man coverage on 34.9% of their pass plays this season, seventh most in the league.

    Analysis: It’s a stark contrast to what the Bengals saw last year, when teams played man against them only 22.8% of the time.

    Of course, anything dealing with 2023 needs to be separated into before the Joe Burrow injury and after. But there isn’t a big difference in this regard.

    Teams played man 24.5% of the time against Burrow and 20.4% in Jake Browning’s seven starts.

    It will be interesting to see how the Commanders, and the rest of the teams coming up on the schedule, adjust with Tee Higgins’ return.

    Stat: Trey Hendrickson has accounted for 57% of the Bengals’ pressures this season, tied for the third-highest through Week 2.

    Analysis: This isn’t a stat where you want to necessarily be ranked that high.

    Hendrickson obviously is off to a great start, but the 57% number has as much to do with the lack of pressure from the rest of the defense as it does with his relentless pass rush.

    Hendrickson has 12 pressures. No other Bengals defender has more than four.

    That needs to change, and it should with the return of Jenkins this week and the anticipated return of last year’s first-round pick, edge rusher Myles Murphy, in Week 5.

    Stat: The Commanders’ 63 no-huddle plays are 30 more than any other team this year (Chicago Bears, 33) and more than they had all of last year (51).

    Analysis: That stat comes from Doug Clawson of CBS Sports.

    No-huddle, up-tempo offenses have been a staple of Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s philosophy for years, and it might be part of the reason Bengals cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt called it “a nice college offense.”

    Taylor-Britt said that while responding to a question about what he’s seen from Washington rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.

    “They don’t make him do a lot,” Taylor-Britt said. “They keep it really simple for him.”

    When Kingsbury was head coach and play caller for the Arizona Cardinals from 2019-22, the team led the league in no-huddle plays all four seasons by a wide margin.

    Stat: The Commanders have not played a game in Cincinnati since George W. Bush was the president in 2008, and they haven’t won here since George H.W. Bush was president in 1991.

    Analysis: While that’s a long chronological span — 12,055 days — it’s only a two-game losing streak.

    Here are the teams that own the longest droughts without a victory against the Bengals in Cincinnati (with the length of the winless streak):

    Stat: The under is 4-0-1 when Burrow plays in prime time as a favorite.

    Analysis: At 47.5, the Bengals-Commanders game is one of the highest totals on the board this weekend. Only Lions-Arizona Cardinals (51.5) and Eagles-New Orleans Saints (49.5) are bigger.

    The under also is 5-1 in the last six Cincinnati games with a total of at least 47.5. The lone loss was last week at Kansas City when the total was 48 and the Chiefs won 26-25.

    In the last seven games with a total of at least 47.5, the Bengals are 6-1 against the point spread.

    A Bengals-under same game parlay seems like a strong play.

    Bengals vs. Commanders Predictions

    David Bearman: Bengals
    Adam Beasley: Bengals
    Brian Blewis: Bengals
    Tony Catalina: Bengals
    Anthony DiBona: Bengals
    Mike Gambardella: Bengals
    Jay Morrison: Bengals
    Dakota Randall: Bengals
    Dallas Robinson: Bengals
    Ben Rolfe: Bengals
    Kyle Soppe: Bengals
    Dan Tomaro: Bengals
    Mike Wobschall: Bengals
    Dakota Zientek: Bengals

    Listen to the PFN Bengals Podcast

    Listen to the PFN Bengals Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Bengals Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review! Rather watch instead? Check out the PFN Bengals Podcast on our NFL YouTube channel.