The Cincinnati Bengals will close the curtain on a disappointing and frustrating 2023 season Sunday afternoon when they welcome the Cleveland Browns to Paycor Stadium for the 101st renewal of the Battle of Ohio.
Some are expecting the game to have a preseason feel, but that won’t exactly be the case. The Bengals insist there will only be one team resting starters and showing no concern for the final score.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Preview
Bengals head coach Zac Taylor and most of the players who stood before microphones and cameras this week insist that a winning record matters to them and that avoiding an 0-6 mark in the AFC North is a huge motivator.
It better be.
When going all in and repeatedly emphasizing how much a win means to them, losing to a team that has said none of that and is making every move in the opposite direction would be an embarrassing look going into a pivotal offseason.
If the Bengals win to finish 9-8, it would be their third consecutive winning season, which would be the second-longest streak in franchise history behind the five in a row from 2011-15.
The only other times they posted back-to-back winning seasons were 1975-76 and 1972-73.
The Browns (11-5) can hit the 12-win mark for the first time since 1986 and just their second in the Super Bowl era. But they have made it clear they won’t be playing many, if any, starters as they put former Bengals quarterback Jeff Driskel in charge of the offense.
The Bengals are 33-8 in their last 41 home finales, including 2019 against the Browns, when they went into the game 1-14 in Taylor’s first season.
41 years of sending 'em home happy.
Even in some of the bleakest #Bengals seasons, they've found a way to win their last game in front of their fans.
They are a remarkable 33-8 in their last 41 home finales. pic.twitter.com/nP5Fgw4sDU
— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison)
They’ll try to send their fans home happy once again Sunday.
5 Bengals-Browns Stats From Inside Edge
- The Browns have thrown for 1,373 passing yards over their last four games — best in the league
- The Bengals have allowed 258 passing yards per game since Week 14 — fifth worst in the league.
Analysis: Yes, facing Patrick Mahomes in one of those four games plays a role in the passing yards being so high, but the other three games were against backup Gardner Minshew and backups to the backup Nick Mullens and Mason Rudolph.
Based on what this Bengals defense has been all year, not just over the last four games, Driskel — the backup to the backup to the backup to the backup to the backup in Cleveland — is just as likely to throw for 258 as he is to fall short of that number.
Driskel, a former Bengal, will be throwing to second-string weapons, but the problems in the Cincinnati secondary haven’t been matching up talent-wise. They’ve been due to miscommunication and youth, and that’s not getting fixed overnight in Week 18.
- The Browns have a third down conversion rate of just 25.8% in the second half since Week 14 — worst in the NFL.
- The Cincinnati defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 26.1% in the second half during that span — fourth best in the league.
Analysis: At first glance, this stat and the ones above don’t appear to jibe, but it’s a further illustration of how killer the explosive plays have been for Lou Anarumo’s defense. When the Bengals aren’t getting torched for long gains, they’ve been good at defending the sticks and getting off the field on third down.
Even last week at Kansas City when they were giving up back-breaking 67- and 44-yard deep balls, they were forcing the Chiefs to settle for six field goals, holding the hosts to one of three in the red zone.
In the ugly 24-3 loss at Cleveland in Week 1, the Bengals held the Browns to four-of-14 on third downs. But on the season as a whole, Cincinnati is allowing a 42.1% conversion rate, which ranks 26th in the league and is only half a percent shy of the 42.6% posted in the first year of the Zac Taylor-Anarumo regime, when the Bengals went 2-14.
- The Bengals have gone three-and-out on 25.5% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — second worst in the league.
- The Browns have forced three-and-outs on 30.8% of opponent drives in the fourth quarter — best in the NFL.
Analysis: Remember the Week 1 curb-stomping the Browns put on the Bengals? This trend started that day when the Bengals went three-and-out on two of their three (66.7%) of their fourth-quarter drives.
And things weren’t much different last week when the Cincinnati offense went three-and-out on two of three drives at Kansas City.
But we don’t really know what the fourth quarter will look like on Sunday. The Browns are treating this like a preseason game from the jump. The Bengals could do the same if they’re up — or down — by a sizable margin as it gets late.
- The Bengals have thrown for 10.3 yards per attempt on passes over the middle this season — tied for third best in the league.
- The Browns have allowed 11.0 yards per dropback when defending passes over the middle — worst in the league.
Analysis: This could be shaping up as the Tyler Boyd sendoff game. Taylor made it clear that he doesn’t believe in trying to force-feed the ball to help players achieve special milestones because it has to happen organically.
But Boyd has meant a lot to this organization, and there is a reason he is one of the few holdovers from the Marvin Lewis era as Taylor picked him to be a part of building the culture he wanted here.
MORE: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase Talks Contract, Elves, and a Future Without Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins
Targets have been fewer for Boyd since Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase arrived, and Boyd has never complained. Higgins isn’t playing Sunday, and the Browns struggle to cover the middle of the field.
So why not make Boyd a big part of the plan and see if this game, which is likely to be his last with the team, can’t be one to remember.
- The Bengals are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 Battle of Ohio games.
Analysis: Obviously, one of those losses was the season opener, when they went to Cleveland as one-point favorites and got blown out 24-3.
That result, however, points strongly toward a Cincinnati win — and cover — Sunday at Paycor Stadium. That’s because the Browns have not covered both games against the Bengals since the 2009 season.
Cincinnati won both of those games, but it was a 6.5-point favorite at Cleveland and needed overtime to survive, 23-20. And in Week 12 that year, the Bengals traveled north in Week 12 as 12-point favorites and survived a slugfest, 16-7.
As for the over/under total of 37.5, it’s one of the lowest in the history of Battle of Ohio games played in Cincinnati. The elements along Lake Erie have created plenty of lower over/under numbers through the years, but there have been only six games with lower posted totals than this one.
And the over went 5-1 in those six.
Bengals vs. Browns Predictions
- Adam Beasley: Bengals
- David Bearman:Â Bengals
- Dalton Miller: Bengals
- Dallas Robinson: Bengals
- Jay Morrison:Â Bengals
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
