The Carolina Panthers drafted Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Hubbard’s fantasy football outlook is influenced by workhorse running back Christian McCaffrey. Is Hubbard worth targeting at his ADP as a lottery ticket?
Chuba Hubbard’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Hubbard is unlikely to have any standalone fantasy value while McCaffrey is healthy. McCaffrey had an injury-riddled 2020 season, and Mike Davis filled in admirably, finishing with 1,015 total yards and 8 touchdowns.
McCaffrey has averaged 24.3 opportunities and played 91% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps since 2018. This is the workload that Hubbard would inherit if McCaffrey is injured again. Based on his collegiate statistical body of work, Hubbard is capable of meeting or exceeding Davis’ production.
Sam Darnold and Carolina’s offense
Carolina also has a new quarterback this season in Sam Darnold. In April, the Panthers traded for him, with head coach Matt Rhule considering Darnold an important piece of the team’s new offensive identity. Carolina has surrounded him with playmakers.
One area of weakness for the Panthers is its offensive line. It’s still a work in progress with a combination of inexperienced younger players and ineffective veterans. Nine Panthers’ linemen played 100 or more snaps in 2020, and this scenario could repeat itself in 2021.
Nevertheless, McCaffrey has the athleticism and is talented enough to transcend poor offensive line play. He’s capable as a runner in between the tackles and as a receiver out of the backfield. Can you say the same for Hubbard?
Fantasy projection
Before diving into Hubbard’s projection, it’s important to briefly examine his past. He only played in seven games for Oklahoma State last season due to an ankle injury, finishing with 133 carries for 625 yards and 5 touchdowns.
It is worth noting that Hubbard is only one season removed from his marvelous 2019 campaign, in which he rushed for 2,094 yards and 21 touchdowns. His poor 2020 season negatively impacted his draft stock.
Here are a few film observations on Hubbard. The former Oklahoma State running back has shown the ability to handle a significant workload and has many strengths.
Hubbard runs with a solid tempo and has the vision to recognize running lanes. He’s an effortless downhill runner with excellent change-of-direction ability.
The biggest opportunity that could prevent Hubbard from being a true McCaffrey fill-in is his blitz recognition and pass protection. As of now, Hubbard projects for around 50 rushing attempts, 250 rushing yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns. Additionally, he could see around 15 targets in 2021.
Chuba Hubbard’s ADP
Hubbard is currently being selected at an ADP of 165.5 on Fleaflicker in half-PPR formats. It’s a similar situation in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where he has an ADP of 161.57. His ADP is earliest on Sleeper, where he’s being selected at 151.1 in half-PPR leagues.
Should you draft Hubbard in 2021?
You should draft Hubbard if you have the right expectations. He is a lottery ticket who could be a league winner if McCaffrey were ever to miss significant time.
It’s critical for Hubbard to improve his pass protection. Otherwise, he’ll be splitting time with Reggie Bonnafon — a converted wide receiver capable of replicating McCaffrey’s contribution as a wideout.
