Carolina Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard is coming off his best season in terms of fantasy football production, but his lack of efficiency (3.8 yards per carry) led to the team’s in adding talent at the position.
Enter Jonathon Brooks, whom the Panthers drafted in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft, capital that usually comes with a real opportunity to earn work from Day 1. Should managers avoid Hubbard and assume that this is the Brooks show, or is there some value to extract in grabbing Hubbard in the later stages of fantasy drafts?
Should I Draft Chuba Hubbard in 2024?
Hubbard’s case is an interesting one, since we’re talking about a unique backfield. In a single RB room, we have an overpaid player, a promising rookie, and last season’s primary option.
You could easily make the case for any of them to get the first crack at significant work to open the season, which is why the fantasy industry is approaching each of them with caution in drafts.
Chuba Hubbard with his first TD of the season đź‘Ź pic.twitter.com/drAyqe3uxL
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) October 15, 2023
To paraphrase the popular quote — “if you have many, you may have none.”
It’s possible, if not likely, that a Panther running back will provide significant value, but unless you’re willing to draft two of them, you’re playing with fire.
Brooks is the favorite to win this battle given the draft capital the team spent on him. But wouldn’t we have made Miles Sanders this backfield’s unquestioned top dog for the entirety of 2023 as a result of the financial capital they poured into him?
Don’t get me wrong, I like Brooks more than Hubbard. At Texas last season, all he did was pile up 1,425 yards with 11 scores while averaging 6.7 yards per touch. He was phenomenal and could very well be a starting NFL running back for years to come.
That said, Brooks is going 6-7 rounds earlier than Hubbard, and that’s more than I’m willing to spend on an RB in an offense that, even if Carolina improves in a significant way, will likely finish 2024 well below average. Brooks is also set to start the season on the reserve/PUP list making it likely that Hubbard will start during that period.
2023 Carolina Panthers
- 32nd in yards per game
- T-31st in points per game
- 23rd in rush rate (37%)
Truth be told, I’m not going to be landing on any of Carolina’s running backs unless they fall to a point where it’s borderline irresponsible to pass.
Hubbard (career 3.9 ypc) has scored just 12 times on 505 NFL carries (2.4%) and is unlikely to see the type of bell-cow volume that would allow him to pay off. And while Sanders still counts for $7.7 million against the cap, if the Panthers didn’t feel pot-committed to him a season ago, I see no reason to think that changes this year.
Brooks is a fine prospect, but there are plenty of paths to a negative return on investment for him given the state of this offense. If you’re a big believer in what Carolina has done and think Bryce Young can develop in a hurry, Brooks is worth consideration in the late seventh round. His touches would be more valuable than I’m giving them credit for.
I’m not sold. Hubbard’s cost isn’t prohibitive, but I’d rather roll the dice on a player like Tyler Allgeier, one who I think has a little more to offer on a per-touch basis and more upside, in my opinion, should the RB ahead of him on the depth chart go down.
You’re not drafting either (Hubbard or Allgeier) for their standalone value at the moment, so why not take the option with a greater ceiling?
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Analysis for Chuba Hubbard
I have Hubbard projected for 660 rushing yards, 21 receptions for 149 receiving yards, and 6.0 total touchdowns. That comes out to 8.13 fantasy points per game, placing him at RB45 in my projections, not too dissimilar to the PFN consensus.
Hubbard’s ADP is RB44, which is identical to my RB44 ranking. The price is low enough that he’s a viable selection as a handcuff and a guy you might be able to start early in the season before Brooks gets going.
Given the Panthers’ RB depth chart, we can also be reasonably confident in Hubbard’s status as the primary beneficiary should Brooks get hurt or not fully recover this season.
Hubbard is a fine selection as your fantasy team’s RB5, but he does lack the potential to win his team’s lead-back job on performance alone. If you opt to go with lower floor, higher ceiling options, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that.