The NFL was kind enough to move the majority of the Week 16 slate to Saturday so that players, coaches, organizational members, and fans can enjoy their Christmas at home. The Sunday slate isn’t bare, though, as we have three games we can get action on. There’s no better way to break in your new TV than to enjoy some NFL Christmas Day action.
We’re breaking down the best DFS lineup options for Week 16. The Miami Dolphins host the Green Bay Packers, followed by the Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams, and then Sunday Night Football features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals. Let’s dive into the guys you have to fit onto some of your lineups.
Christmas Day NFL DFS Picks in Week 16
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Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
The quarterback options for Christmas day lack the clearly elite star, but we have a couple of quality fantasy producers. Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is easily the highest-upside play, but he also costs us $8,400 at FanDuel. I thought about taking Rodgers for $7,300 as a better usage of the allotted salary but decided against it.
MORE: Packers vs. Dolphins Prediction
Even as the Dolphins’ passing game has struggled over the last three weeks, we have to play the upside that Tagovailoa possesses. He’s completed under 57% in three straight games but has two or more touchdowns in five of his last seven games. Rodgers hasn’t thrown for more than 229 yards since Week 9 and has one touchdown in each of his last two games.
Rodgers is facing a defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game, but the Packers have become too conservative for a throwback four-touchdown showing. Tagovailoa may not get to four scores, either, but he’s the best bet of any quarterback on Sunday to reach three and push for 300 yards. Don’t be lured by big names who aren’t playing well, like Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson.
Latavius Murray, RB, Denver Broncos
With Aaron Jones dealing with a knee injury, James Conner costing entirely too much at $7,500, and Raheem Mostert far from a lock to be the lead back in Miami, I’m looking to blend value with upside. We spent a lot on Tagovailoa already, but I want one of the top backs. There’s no question Murray is a premier option on Christmas.
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Murray ran for 130 yards and one touchdown last week, giving him three booming games since becoming the starter in Week 11. The Rams rank as an average team against the run, but they’ve gotten progressively worse without Aaron Donald in the lineup. They’ve allowed 117 or more rushing yards in three of the last four weeks.
The Broncos’ offense is certainly not overly dangerous, and they have limited scoring opportunities. But we want volume and the best shot at a touchdown we can get. Murray dominates the workload for Denver and should be involved in a contest where both teams play freely with nothing to lose.
Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, Miami Dolphins
If I went cheaper at quarterback, I likely would swap Wilson for Raheem Mostert or AJ Dillon. But I don’t think that swap for the backs is advantageous enough to make. I have more conviction that Tagovailoa will play well and we can get some usage out of Wilson as opposed to the combined production of Rodgers or Brady and another back.
Wilson’s an interesting upside play because his touches suddenly dropped after Week 12. He went from the starter to earning a total of five touches in the last two weeks, in part due to injury. Playing him this week is risky, but Green Bay has one of the worst defenses against backs in the NFL. This includes being susceptible as a receiver, where Wilson can do more damage than Mostert.
We’ll need Wilson to see more touches for this to pay off, but this is my gamble of the week. The other risk you could take with a lower-cost budget option is Rams receiver Tutu Atwell, but I don’t have faith that Baker Mayfield can throw the ball deep effectively if Atwell springs open.
Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Very quietly, Akers has recovered from a brutal early part of the season that led to a trade request. The Rams have been slightly more effective rushing even as Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp continue to miss games. Akers has been getting volume, reaching 60 or more yards in three of his last five games.
He’s also scored three times in the last three weeks. Yes, Denver’s defense is very good, and anything Akers gives us won’t come easy. But there’s not another decent option for Akers’ price tag. We’re not passing on a star to fit Akers into our lineup, either.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
The top of the receiver market is extremely expensive, and the depth runs out quickly. As much as I’d love to fit Tyreek Hill or Chris Godwin into this lineup, it’s simply too hard unless we take a major cut elsewhere. Instead, I opted for three solid No. 2 receiver types.
MORE: Early NFL Week 16 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
Watson is a nightmare matchup for Miami in particular. His speed and ability to get upfield will be a major issue for a slow group of Dolphins cornerbacks. I don’t care if Xavien Howard was named to the Pro Bowl, he hasn’t been good this season, and Green Bay will have opportunities to get Watson the ball in space.
Last week was the first game in the last five where Watson didn’t reach the end zone. I saw Rodgers miss some open passing windows to Watson last week that could’ve bolstered his numbers significantly. I’m not counting on Rodgers missing those opportunities again.
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Just when it seemed as though Evans was being put out to fantasy pasture along with Brady and the Buccaneers’ passing offense, he had his finest game since Week 8. Evans caught five of his nine targets and tallied 83 yards in Week 15. He’s still on a touchdown drought stemming since Week 4, but he continues to get targets and is trending back up in production.
Facing a mediocre Cardinals passing defense might bring that elusive touchdown for Evans. Tampa is still fighting for the NFC South crown and desperately needs a win. This is when playmakers show up with a big game. I think Evans will prove to be a great value at only $7,200.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
I had to get another high-upside receiver from the game with the two best quarterbacks and the nicest weather for the offenses to thrive. With Tyreek Hill priced way too high, Waddle is a much more attractive option at $1,400 less. Waddle is coming off a monstrous three-catch, 114-yard, and one-touchdown game in Buffalo.
Hill has a higher floor and ceiling than Waddle, but the second-year playmaker has been awesome this season. He’s leading the NFL in yards per reception at 18.0 and has set new highs in yards and touchdowns. Green Bay has only allowed 135.2 yards per game to receivers, but they’re about to be pushed to their limits by Waddle and Hill.
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
The tight-end market is quite terrible this week. Greg Dulcich is the best but most expensive option, and Tyler Higbee is just out of our budget with this lineup. McBride, a rookie, is coming off the best game of his career with four catches and 55 yards.
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While I don’t love the idea of putting faith into Cardinals third-string quarterback Trace McSorely, the Buccaneers have a bottom-seven defense against tight ends, and we’re limited with our options. McBride costs $100 more than Mike Gesicki, a player who has one catch in the last month.
This is a calculated risk that helps us afford better players elsewhere.
Denver Broncos Defense/Special Teams
I always hunt turnovers and sacks when it comes to defense and special team plays. It’s worthwhile to spend here because we need playmaking, and that isn’t cheap. Tampa Bay is the most expensive, but I could see Mayfield having a rough outing against this Denver defense that’s stacked with pass-rushers and ballhawks.
