Should I Draft Christian McCaffrey? 49ers RB Is Still Worth His ADP

The fantasy football community rarely agrees on anything unanimously. But there’s no denying Christian McCaffrey’s status as the best running back in fantasy. Fresh off his second-career overall RB1 finish, McCaffrey is the favorite for the No. 1 overall pick. Should fantasy managers draft the San Francisco 49ers RB there?

Christian McCaffrey’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season

McCaffrey was part of the vaunted 2017 running back class, which should go down in history as the best of all time. As most of them age out of the league, McCaffrey is still going strong.

For the third time in the past six seasons, McCaffrey averaged over 24 fantasy points per game in a full season. Not surprisingly, going from a bad Carolina Panthers offense to an elite 49ers team has been great for McCaffrey’s fantasy value.

Last season, the 49ers RB carried the ball 272 times for 1,459 yards while adding 67 receptions for 564 receiving yards. Playing in San Francisco’s elite offense, McCaffrey scored an incredible 21 touchdowns. His rushing and scoring numbers were both career highs.

Volume is king in fantasy football. While McCaffrey obviously sees plenty of it, his touch count isn’t quite where it was in Carolina. That’s what happens when a player shares a field with Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.

In terms of percentages, though, McCaffrey is being utilized as much as the team reasonably can. His 19.3% target share led the league. This is just a low-volume passing attack. Despite the cliché nature of the phrase, there are, in fact, too many mouths to feed.

Fortunately, in an offense that operates as smoothly as the 49ers’, McCaffrey can make up for any lack of volume with efficiency. Last season, he averaged 6.0 yards per touch (third in the NFL), 3.8 yards created per touch (13th), and an impressive 7.4% of his carries went for 15+ yards.

Is McCaffrey a Good Fantasy Pick?

It’s really difficult to envision any path that leads to McCaffrey failing outside of injury. As we saw last year (and every year), anyone can get hurt. Even the safest of fantasy options can suffer random injuries. McCaffrey is no more or less likely to get hurt than anyone else.

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Yes, he did already get hurt in training camp, straining his calf. As a reminder, he also strained his calf in Week 17 of last season. He sat out Week 18, the 49ers’ bye, and then played the next three games with no issue. I am not worried at all about his Week 1 status.

While he does have 1,948 career touches, there’s no reason to expect any sort of decline. McCaffrey is the surest thing in fantasy at a position where there are so few of them.

If you want to take CeeDee Lamb or Tyreek Hill No. 1 overall, I won’t argue with you. They are equally elite assets, albeit at a deeper position. You certainly won’t regret it. But if I land the top pick in a draft, I’m going with McCaffrey.

Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insight on Christian McCaffrey

For those of you who wonder if this was potentially a one-year wonder in a 49ers uniform, now is a great time to remind you McCaffrey averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game after joining the San Francisco backfield in Week 7 of 2022 through the rest of that season, which was good for RB1 overall during that span.

The fact that McCaffrey is competing with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and the team’s first-round pick Ricky Pearsall for targets in an offense that ranked 30th in pass attempts per game last year is the only thing keeping it remotely close for other fantasy backs coming anywhere close to this level of production.

McCaffrey haters may be quick to point out that he still missed 23 games over his final two years with the Carolina Panthers, but he has shown no injury concerns since joining the 49ers. Injuries are a part of football.

To be fair to some of those durability concerns, McCaffrey did pick up a calf strain this training camp, but all reports suggest he should be a full go for the season opener.

If you pass on McCaffrey at No. 1 overall in your fantasy draft because you are afraid he might get hurt or are projecting Father Time to start tapping his shoulder out of nowhere this year, then you are probably only hurting your own chances of winning.

There are only so many ways to say that McCaffrey is as excellent as advertised, but one additional way is to acknowledge that his current ADP is No. 1 overall.