Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin is averaging 6.1 catches per game over the past five seasons, establishing himself as a strong volume play with a high fantasy football floor across all formats.
That said, it was clear that Baker Mayfield was more comfortable in throwing to Mike Evans last season, a tendency that created a lower floor than we’ve come to expect for Godwin. With a late-season surge, there is optimism that Godwin can be a weekly contributor for the entirety of 2024. Is he worthy of a selection in the sixth round?
Chris Godwin’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
The veteran slot man has tallied three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and is a consistent route runner that fits in any scheme. That said, it was clear that Mayfield (and the play-calling of this offense as a whole) preferred a riskier profile, a style that put Evans in a spot to succeed and lowered Godwin’s floor for much of 2023.
Will that continue? If it does, Godwin’s range of possible outcomes shrinks in a significant way. He’s struggled to find the end zone of late (10 total TD receptions on 285 catches during those back-to-back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns), making him a volume-dependent option in a spot with limited volume.
Chris Godwin is headed back to the slot in 2024.
This should make you VERY excited‼️
– Current ADP is WR36, I think that’s his FLOOR 👀
– Dave Canales didn’t use him right in 2023, but he still put up 1,000 receiving yards for the 3rd year in a row
– Chris also led the Bucs… pic.twitter.com/YEOFT1Aa56
— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) May 18, 2024
Also eating away at Godwin’s weekly value is Tampa Bay’s unique backfield. Both Rachaad White (fourth at the position in receptions last season with an eye-popping 91.4% catch rate) and rookie Bucky Irving (56 catches at Oregon last season) are RB threats to soak up looks in the short-passing game.
Add in third-year Cade Otton — 25.7% target share during last season’s two playoff games — and the path to enough projectable volume to matter weekly gets cloudy in a hurry.
The low-yardage floor that I’m hinting at is something we saw for the majority of last season, as Godwin was held under 55 receiving yards in 12 of 19 games. He was able to finish with a respectable stat line by appearing in every game (a bonus, his first season without multiple DNPs since 2018), though his impact on individual fantasy matchups was rarely significant.
In early drafts, Godwin is coming off the board in the sixth round, slightly after the Terry McLaurin/Jayden Reed tier and just ahead of the “veteran receivers joining new teams” tier of Calvin Ridley and Hollywood Brown.
I don’t think Godwin’s floor/ceiling combination is in the same stratosphere as McLaurin’s (clear WR1 in an offense with upside by way of a dynamic rookie QB) or Reed’s (to my eye, the alpha in an upward-trending Green Bay Packers offense).
I understand Godwin being selected in the Ridley/Brown range, but those are two receivers with much higher ceilings and similar floors that would thus be more interesting to me in the middle rounds.
Godwin could very well finish with a fourth straight 1,000-yard season and offer value on occasion. However, it feels like so as long as Mayfield is at the controls, counting on Godwin as a weekly Flex — even in PPR formats — is dangerous.
Derek Tate’s Fantasy Insights on Chris Godwin
Despite falling from a top-20 WR finish in the previous two seasons to WR29 in 2023, Godwin still posted solid numbers with 83 receptions for 1,024 yards on 130 targets. All three of these marks ranked inside the top 25 among wide receivers, making his drop in fantasy rankings a bit overblown.
The biggest disappointment in Godwin’s 2023 season was his two receiving touchdowns, his lowest mark since his rookie year in 2017. Despite this, he remained heavily involved in the Buccaneers’ offense, and his target share suggests he’s poised for positive TD regression in 2024.
Godwin’s move back to the slot, where he’s had his best fantasy seasons, could boost his production in 2024. His consistent target volume (100+ targets projected) and established connection with Baker Mayfield offer him legitimate WR2 upside.
Godwin’s usage in the red zone last year (17 targets, tied for 19th in the league) indicates potential for a bounce-back in touchdown production. His inefficiency in the red zone in 2023 was an anomaly, and improvement in this area could lead to a significant fantasy boost.
While the arrival of rookie Jalen McMillan could slightly impact Godwin’s target share, his established role in the Buccaneers’ offense remains secure. Godwin’s consistent production and experience make him a reliable option heading into 2024.
Godwin’s current ADP of WR36 in the seventh round places him alongside players like Calvin Ridley, Jayden Reed, and Hollywood Brown. Given his reliable floor and potential for top-20 production with positive TD regression, Godwin offers excellent draft value.
Godwin remains a highly dependable fantasy option, even in a “down” year. His ability to deliver 130 targets, 80+ receptions, and 1,000+ yards should not be overlooked. At his current ADP, Godwin presents a great draft-day value with a strong chance to outperform expectations in 2024.