The Chicago Bears offense is set to look drastically different in 2024, with Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze set to join DJ Moore. With a new running back, D’Andre Swift, also in town, can the trio of Moore, Allen, and Odunze all have fantasy football relevance this season? Let’s take a look at their fantasy outlooks and whether you should select them in drafts.
DJ Moore’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 243.1 (158.6 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 84.5
- Receiving Yards: 1142.9
- Receiving TDs: 6.4
Right now, Moore is being drafted in the third round, just ahead of secondary receivers like Jaylen Waddle, Cooper Kupp, and DeVonta Smith. I like that tier, as they are all strong talents that figure to post strong season-long numbers but with some week-to-week variance.
Moore was a clear-cut WR1 last season for fantasy managers, and I think the industry is right in not labeling him as such this season, though it’s not out of the range of outcomes. If you believe that Allen’s recent injuries limit him, you’ll want to rank Moore as a top-15 option at the position and jump into the late-second/early-third round to acquire his services.
There is no denying that he is one of the better YAC receivers in the game today, and a skill set like that can help insulate a rookie quarterback. As long as you’re not paying for a repeat of 2023, Moore makes for a strong WR2 target in all formats.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Keenan Allen’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 214.9 (129.8 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 85.0
- Receiving Yards: 955.2
- Receiving TDs: 5.2
While it’s great that Allen is still on a team with a quarterback we expect to be very good in Williams, there’s no way to project him for the same opportunity.
Last year, Allen was the clear top option in a very weak WR corps. This year, he’s competing for targets with Moore, Odunze, Cole Kmet, and Swift.
Allen is probably the 1B to Moore’s 1A. There will be plenty of volume to go around, but even a 25% target share would be a win.
Furthermore, we’re talking about 25% of the targets, at best, from a rookie QB. As great as Williams should be, he’s still a rookie. We’re now asking a rookie QB to step in and immediately sustain the fantasy values of two wide receivers who finished inside the top 12 last season.
The only rookie signal-caller in NFL history to do anything close to that was C.J. Stroud last season, with Nico Collins and Tank Dell both finishing as top-18 receivers in fantasy points per game.
The Bears will throw the ball more this year than last year. Still, they are almost certainly not going to air it out as much as Justin Herbert did in Los Angeles.
Allen’s opportunity raises obvious concerns. However, those concerns are heavily baked into his price. Quite frankly, I’m not sure what’s going on.
Allen’s ADP is WR31, which puts him at No. 69 overall. Need I remind you that there were only two wide receivers better than him last season? Everyone knows Allen is not going to be a top-six WR again. He probably won’t be a top-12 WR. He may not even be a top-18 WR. But you’re telling me Allen could finish as a low-end WR2 and still provide an incredible return on investment?
I get it. WR is super deep. There are a lot of young players going around Allen, many of whom we have not yet seen anywhere near their best season, but we’ve gone too far. If Allen’s ADP holds, I am going to draft him in every league, and you should too … unless you’re in my league.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Rome Odunze’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR Fantasy Points: 192.5 (128.8 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 63.6
- Receiving Yards: 954.3
- Receiving TDs: 5.3
Odunze is currently being drafted as a reserve receiver in the Round 8-9 range, depending on your league’s appetite for rookies. I’m not drafting him in any of those windows and plan on having essentially zero shares in redraft (dynasty is a VERY different discussion).
Ladd McConkey and Xavier Worthy are a pair of rookies going in this same general range and, as simple as it seems, advantages in their respective roles are enough for me to overlook a slight talent gap.
Yes, maybe McConkey and Worthy are only 80% of the prospect that Odunze is. However, as the top receiver in a Justin Herbert offense and a starter under Patrick Mahomes with a similar target expectancy as Odunze, I prefer each of those options to Chicago’s promising WR3.
- Justin Watson (Kansas City Chiefs): 27-460-3 in 16 games
- Cade Otton (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): 47-455-4 in 17 games
Those are just two examples of the third pass catcher in offenses and the stat line that they posted a season ago.
Do I think Odunze is more talented than both of those players? Of course, but with proven receivers ahead of him (Allen and Moore) and weekly variance under center, the path to fantasy failure, for me, is much clearer than the avenue to meaningful consistency.
The San Francisco 49ers pulled off the three-pass-catcher thing (Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle all caught 60-75 passes and scored 6-7 times), but it required proven NFL talent and a historically efficient season from Brock Purdy.
I like Williams as much as the next analyst, but counting on him to be 2023 Purdy is too optimistic for my liking. Even if Williams were to pull that off, there’s just as good a chance that it’s because he heavily features his two veteran receivers instead of involving a third option.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst