This Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers rematch from last season will give Tom Brady an opportunity to avenge one of his defeats from his first season in Tampa Bay. Will the Bears get the best of Brady once again, or will the Buccaneers continue their march towards the NFC South title with a victory?
Chicago Bears offense vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense
If this game is to be competitive, Chicago’s offense needs to make big strides in Week 7. Averaging just 16.3 points per game, the Bears’ offense sits third-worst in the NFL this season. Their 4.3 yards per play is the lowest number in the league and is driven by their struggles in the passing game.
Justin Fields vs. Buccaneers defense
It has been a tough start to life in the NFL for former Ohio State QB Justin Fields. In Weeks 2 and 3, he went just 12-of-33 passing for 128 yards and 1 interception. Since then, his performance has improved somewhat. He has completed 39 of his 64 passes in the past three weeks for 494 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
That improvement has been reflected in Fields’ grades by Pro Football Network’s Offensive Value Metric (OVM). OVM grades players based on how they have performed using metrics that are within the player’s control. After struggling in Weeks 2 and 3, Fields has seen marked improvements in the past three weeks.
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It will be intriguing to see how Fields performs against the Buccaneers’ defense. Overall this year, Tampa Bay has performed similarly on defense to Fields’ last two opponents (Packers and Raiders).
Where the Buccaneers have been susceptible is in the passing game, allowing 6.4 yards per attempt. Looking at the overall passing numbers, Tampa Bay is inside the bottom 10 in both passing yards and touchdowns allowed per game. However, no team has seen more passing attempts against them than this Buccaneers defense (41.8 attempts per game).
When you compare the Buccaneers’ numbers on pass defense to other teams that have faced an average of 38 or more passing attempts per game, their 2.33 passing touchdowns allowed per game are the second-worst of the group. There is an opportunity for the Bears and their passing game here, but it is at best a push.
Advantage:Â Push
Bears skill players vs. Buccaneers secondary
The Bears’ skill-position players have had a frustrating year, especially Allen Robinson. Robinson has struggled this year, and it is not all because of the QB situation. Robinson has the lowest separation of any receiver that has seen enough targets to qualify, according to Next Gen Stats. This is despite having an above-average amount of cushion afforded to him off the line of scrimmage.
The result has been that Robinson is catching just 58.3% of his targets for 234 yards and 1 touchdown. His drop percentage through these first six weeks is trending to be the highest in the past four seasons at 5.6%, and the passer rating when he is targeted is at a low in that time frame (75.5). Some of that is due to defenses focusing their attention on Robinson the majority of the time, but the results so far have been concerning.
That has left Darnell Mooney to try and provide a spark to this offense. Mooney has a 64.1% catch rate with 306 yards and 1 touchdown. However, the passer rating when targeting Mooney (75.4) is nearly identical to Robinson.
There is an opportunity for both Robinson and Mooney to have success this week. Injuries have devastated the Buccaneers’ cornerback corps this season. They added Richard Sherman, but he has a hamstring injury. That has left Jamel Dean alongside a combination of Pierre Desir, Ross Cockrell, Dee Delaney, and Rashard Robinson.
The Bears could have success if they stay away from Jamel Dean
Dean has been superb this year. He has allowed just 8 completions on 22 targets and has 2 interceptions. The opposing passer rating when he is targeted is a league-low 13.3. For context, the next-lowest CB is Trevon Diggs at 45.0. Whoever Dean covers this week, the Bears would be wise to throw away from that receiver — the other cornerbacks have all struggled in coverage this year.
Dee Delaney has allowed 8 completions on 10 targets this season. Ross Cockrell has allowed just a 61.3% completion rate but has given up 2 touchdowns on 31 targets. If Pierre Desir sees more snaps, he is coming off a year in 2020 where he allowed a 76.9% completion rate and 5 touchdowns on 52 targets with the Jets.
There are opportunities for the Bears to make plays in the passing game. However, if Dean completely takes away one receiver or one side of the field, then Tampa will be able to focus their double-teams on the other side and limit the big plays.
Advantage:Â Push
Bears offensive line vs. Buccaneers defensive line
In the run game, Chicago’s offensive line has been performing reasonably well. According to Football Outsiders’ offensive line metrics, they are an above-average unit in run blocking. Despite injuries within the backfield, the Bears have rushed for 140 or more yards in each of their last three games and rank 12th in the league in terms of yards per attempt.
Unfortunately, they are coming up against one of the league’s best defensive lines against the run. Opponents have managed just 3.4 yards per carry against the Buccaneers this season.
Pass blocking has been a completely different situation. Bears QBs have been sacked on a whopping 12.9% of their dropbacks this season — more than 3% higher than any other offense in 2021.
That should provide an opportunity for Tampa’s defensive line to make some plays. Currently, the Buccaneers’ pass rush has been below league average. They have a 23.9% pressure rate but have a sack rate of just 4.6%. Only five teams in the league have produced sacks at a lower rate in 2021. Despite that, the Buccaneers’ defensive line still has the advantage in this matchup.
Advantage:Â Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense vs. Chicago Bears defense
Tampa’s defense has been rolling in 2021. They have totaled over 400 yards in four games this season, and they’ve found some life in the run game in the past few weeks as well. However, in Week 7, they will come up against the Bears’ top-10 unit in points and yards allowed.
Tom Brady vs. Bears defense
What can you say about Tom Brady that has not already been said? To be performing this well at this age is impressive. He leads the league in passing yards, sits second in touchdowns, and is sixth in QB passer rating in 2021.
He is certainly helped significantly by the offense around him. Brady is just a slightly above average QB in terms of OVM in 2021. He is doing everything right to allow his receivers to make plays, but he’s not doing anything overly remarkable to make it happen.
Brady has largely swept aside whichever defense he has come against this season — except for one. Unsurprisingly, given the emotion surrounding the game (and the familiarity), Brady struggled to make plays consistently vs. the Patriots. However, that was less about the quality of the defense and more about the factors of that particular game.
Chicago’s defense has been its typical solid self. They have kept opponents under 200 passing yards in three of their six games and have not given up over 300 yards since Week 1. In terms of touchdowns, interceptions, and net yards per attempt, they are league average.
Advantage:Â Buccaneers (marginally)
Buccaneers skill players vs. Bears secondary
Tampa’s skill-position unit might be the best of any in the league. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown are already over 400 yards this season individually at wide receiver. The trio has scored a combined 10 touchdowns. Throw Rob Gronkowski (4 touchdowns and 184 yards) and Leonard Fournette (213 yards and an 83.3% catch rate) into the mix, too? The talent is eye-watering.
Even if Brown and Gronkowski miss the game, the Bucs have O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate ready to step up. That makes it so difficult for the Bears’ defensive backs to have success. Focus just a fraction too much attention on one skill-position player and Brady will find another guy to make a play.
For Chicago’s secondary, the situation is similar to the Buccaneers. Jaylon Johnson has impressed, allowing just a 48.4% completion rate when targeted. However, all of the other options have struggled in pass coverage this season. The one other positive is the performance in pass coverage of Roquan Smith, who has allowed just a 65.6% completion rate and an opposing QB rating of 69.8.
Unfortunately, even if those two shut down Evans and Fournette, Brady will still have his pick of options.
Advantage:Â Buccaneers
Buccaneers offensive line vs. Bears defensive line
Tampa’s offensive line has been superb as a run-blocking unit, ranking second according to Football Outsiders. In the passing game, Brady has been sacked just 3.2% of the time and rarely looks troubled in the pocket.
While the Bears’ pass rush has been impressive (10.3% sack rate), their run defense has been below average. Not helping the situation is that the Bears’ will be without Akiem Hicks this week and Khalil Mack may not suit up either.
Right now, it looks as though Brady is going to have all day to stand in the pocket and pick apart the Bears’ secondary. If the Buccaneers can get their run game rolling again after three consecutive 100-yard performances, it could get ugly for Chicago.
Advantage:Â Buccaneers
Betting line and game prediction
It is no surprise that the Buccaneers are heavily favored in this game. They are averaging virtually double the number of points of the Bears this season (32.5 vs. 16.3). The biggest question right now appears to be whether the Buccaneers can cover a spread that is nearly two full touchdowns?
The Buccaneers have already won two games this season by more than 20 points, but those were significantly lesser defenses than the one they face in the Bears. The key to this spread could very well be the performance of Chicago’s red-zone defense. The unit has allowed just 9 touchdowns on 20 RZ trips this season. That is the third-best percentage (45) in the league, and if this is to be remotely close, they need that to continue in Week 7.
Prediction:Â Buccaneers 30, Bears 20
