After a debacle that was his first start, Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields got his first NFL victory against the Detroit Lions a week ago. In start No. 3 of his young career, he and the Bears will have to face a depleted Las Vegas Raiders defense hungry to get back in the win column themselves.
Fields needed just 11 completions to reach 209 yards a week prior and formed what could be a great future combination with WR Darnell Mooney.
Chicago Bears offense vs. Las Vegas Raiders defense
The Bears had a solid performance against the Lions a week ago. Fields and the aforementioned connection with Mooney was on fire, connecting 5 times for 125 yards. Fields didn’t connect with any receiver for a touchdown but hardly needed to because of how strong the rushing attack was against Detroit.
Justin Fields vs. Raiders Defense
Fields rallied from a poor performance against the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 to grab his first victory last week. He was sacked more times than he had completions against the Browns before adjusting his speed of play in Week 4, taking just 1 sack. Although a lot of the work went to his right (his dominant side), Fields still played well, completing 4-of-6 passes to the left side of the hash marks.
Fields now gets to play a Raiders defense that is allowing 25.0 points and 3 touchdowns a game. They also lost both cornerbacks Damon Arnette and Trayvon Mullen to the injured reserve ahead of this game. This defense lacks coverage prowess without Arnette and Mullen, each playing arguably their best football to date.
Linebacker Denzel Perryman has been sluggish in coverage, allowing 75% of the targets his way to be caught this season. He’s allowed 150 yards, but more concerning, 72 of those have come after the catch, as he leads the team in missed tackles. Without Mullen and Arnette outside, this one could get ugly.
Advantage: Bears
Bears weapons vs. Raiders secondary
The Bears have had weapons at their disposal over the past few years, most notably, Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney last year, as well as now. They lacked a player who could get the ball to those playmakers. Now, with Fields developing a great rapport with Mooney, that will free up Robinson for potentially more looks in coverage.
This allows Robinson and Mooney, as well as tight ends Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham, the chance to exploit new cornerbacks in Las Vegas’ lineup. Without Arnette and Mullen, the Raiders will trot out Nate Hobbs opposite Casey Hayward. They’ll have to rely on Amik Robertson and the freshly-called up Keisean Nixon in coverage.
Hayward is good, but he’s not good enough to lock down two potential Pro Bowl talents.
Advantage: Bears
Bears offensive line vs. Raiders offensive line
The Bears certainly aren’t known for their offensive line these days. In fact, the only player really making a name for themselves in their lineup was signed just days before the season.
At left tackle, Jason Peters is once again playing at an All-Pro level while the rest of the Bears’ offensive line remains in question. Sure, Cody Whitehair, Sam Mustipher, James Daniels, and Germain Ifedi have played every snap for the Bears, but collective synergy will only get you so far.
As far as the Raiders’ defensive line, they’re led by Maxx Crosby on the edge. Crosby has recorded 16 total pressures, including 2 sacks and 11 QB knockdowns. He’s been a menace on the outside and has required chip blocks and double teams at times. That has freed up Carl Nassib and Yannick Ngakoue on the opposite edge to see favorable matchups.
It’s also allowed Solomon Thomas the chance to play up to his high draft pick all those years ago. Thomas has 2.5 sacks and 6 total pressures while not missing a single tackle on the year.
As nice as it is that the Bears haven’t missed a snap this season from left guard over, it’s even nicer to have a defensive line that can disrupt the passing lanes with relative ease.
Advantage: Raiders
Chicago Bears defense vs. Las Vegas Raiders offense
Derek Carr leads the Raiders against the Bears’ defense, a once-vaunted unit. However, the Bears are no longer the tri-level threats they once were on defense. Do the Raiders have a complete, distinct advantage, though?
Derek Carr vs. Bears defense
Carr has been slinging it in 2021. Sure, he’s fresh off his worst game of the year, but he had three straight performances of 382 passing yards or more to start the year. Carr is currently second in the NFL with 1,399 passing yards but first in yards per game. Matthew Stafford is the only person ahead of him is Matthew Stafford after throwing for 365 yards against Seattle on Thursday.
On defense, the Bears are led by young, emerging star Jaylon Johnson at cornerback. Khalil Mack patrols the edge, and Eddie Jackson is still an All-Pro caliber player. They haven’t quite put it together for more than one game, but they still have the players capable of taking games over.
Carr is finding every level and every area of the field with relative ease. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns to the right, left, and down the middle of the field this season. He’s very clearly back in the MVP running with another dominant performance. And Chicago would be lucky to stop him.
Advantage:Â Raiders
Raiders weapons vs. Bears secondary
The Raiders have speed and length at their disposal on the receiving end of Carr’s passes. If it’s not Henry Ruggs running past defensive backs, it’s TE Darren Waller standing taller than any potential coverage defender. Waller leads the team with 24 receptions and 274 yards, while Hunter Renfrow and Kenyan Drake have each recorded over 100 yards after the catch.
Chicago, outside of Johnson, doesn’t quite have the players they once did on the outside. Even Jackson is having an off-year. Jackson has allowed 3 touchdowns in coverage while fellow emerging talent Kindle Vildor has done the same. Vildor has multiple pass breakups to his credit this year, forcing a handful of incompletions.
Johnson should lock down one side, but the rest of the field should be open for Las Vegas’ weapons.
Advantage:Â Raiders
Raiders offensive line vs. Bears defensive line
This may be the only place that the Bears have an advantage on the defensive side of the ball. Robert Quinn leads the team with 4.5 sacks while Mack has recorded 4 himself. They’re each getting home at will on the edge, and Akiem Hicks is eating up the rest on the interior. It’s not necessarily a deep unit, but at the top, they’re stacked.
From left to right, Kolton Miller, John Simpson, Andre James, Jermaine Eluemunor, and Alex Leatherwood have not been good this season for Las Vegas. It’s primarily been their Achilles heel on offense. Carr is oft-pressured and quickly. Making matters even worse, the Raiders are being forced to try Leatherwood inside at right guard with Brandon Parker out at right tackle.
It’s not pretty, and it’s not going to get any prettier in a possible Khalil Mack Revenge Game.
Advantage: Bears
Betting line and game prediction
The Raiders are certainly the favorite due to better, more sustained success from their quarterback. Odds currently have the Raiders as a 5.5-point favorite, but with the Achilles heel being the Raiders’ offensive line, the Bears’ big discrepancy on the other side may give life for Chicago.
It’s not going to be by much but look for Chicago to cause enough havoc to keep Carr off all game. Fields can rely on his talented outside playmakers against a depleted secondary on the other side of the ball. As a result, Chicago pulls off an upset.
Prediction:Â Bears 30, Raiders 24
