The Chicago Bears won last week without scoring a single offensive touchdown. Caleb Williams and the offense came out flat, and it looked like some first-game jitters may have been the cause. Defensively, the Bears came up with some key takeaways to start off with a “one” in the win column. The Houston Texans looked great offensively and defensively but gave up some explosive plays to young Indianapolis Colts phenom, Anthony Richardson.
How will the game pan out, and what are the best NFL betting lines to monitor ahead of Sunday night’s contest?
Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Texans -6.5 - Moneyline
Texans (-270); Bears (+220) - Over/Under
45.5 total points - Game time
8:20 p.m. ET - Location
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Bears vs. Texans Preview and Prediction
The Bears currently rank 19th in the league in defensive rush EPA (expected points added), a sharp decline from their 2023 season, where they finished with the seventh-best run defense. This is a concerning trend heading into this matchup.
Meanwhile, the Texans have shown strength in their rushing offense, ranking fifth in rush EPA last week, even against the Indianapolis Colts — a team expected to have one of the best run-stopping defensive lines. Additionally, Joe Mixon ran for an impressive 159 yards at 5.3 yards per carry last week.
In the passing game, this will be more evenly contested. Per PFF, Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson allowed just one catch for negative-2 yards and also recorded an interception last week. He posted a passer rating of 2.8 when targeted and forced one incompletion.
The Bears’ defense ranked fourth in the league in defensive pass EPA and second when forcing pressure on the quarterback. The Bears also pressured the Tennessee Titans 39.5% last week (tied for ninth in the league), according to TruMedia.
For the Bears offense, the key in this matchup will be explosiveness. The Colts were successful because Richardson had a monster arm and could ignore the typical laws of two-high coverage. If Caleb Williams can show what he did in college with his play-making outside the pocket and incredible arm talent, the Bears’ offense might have a shot.
In 2023, the Texans ranked fifth worst in the league in giving up explosive plays. I defined explosive plays as passes or runs for over 20 yards. The Bears’ offense ranked 19th in creating explosive plays.
My picks for this game are Texans -6.5 and the game to go under 45.5. The Texans’ weaknesses on defense don’t match up well with what the Bears can exploit. The Bears’ pass defense is also very solid, which could suggest a game script where the Texans slow things down and pound the rock.