Entering the 2024 NFL season, all eyes were on the Chicago Bears to see if this team could make some noise.
They drafted No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and No. 9 overall pick Rome Odunze, acquired veteran weapons like Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift, and brought back key pieces like DJ Moore, Jaylon Johnson, Montez Sweat, T.J. Edwards, and Cole Kmet.
Now, over halfway through the season, and with another loss in Week 12 to the Vikings, do the 4-7 Bears still have a shot at making the playoffs?
Can the Bears Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 13, the Chicago Bears are 4-7 and now have a 0.9% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a <0.1% chance for the 1 seed, a <0.1% chance for the second seed, a <0.1% chance for the third seed, a <0.1% chance for the fourth seed, a <0.1% chance for the fifth seed, a 0.1% chance for the sixth seed, and a 0.8% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Bears Win the NFC North?
Here’s what the NFC North race looks like after all the action in Week 12:
- The Detroit Lions have a 68.4% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Minnesota Vikings have a 20.7% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Green Bay Packers have a 10.9% chance to win the NFC North.
- The Chicago Bears have a <0.1% chance to win the NFC North.
Current NFC North Standings
- Detroit Lions (10-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
- Green Bay Packers (8-3)
- Chicago Bears (4-7)
NFC Playoff Race After Week 14
1. Detroit Lions (12-1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (11-2)
3. Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)
5. Minnesota Vikings (11-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (9-4)
7. Washington Commanders (8-5)
In The Hunt
8. Los Angeles Rams (7-6)
9. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
10. Arizona Cardinals (6-7)
11. San Francisco 49ers (6-7)
12. New Orleans Saints (5-8)
13. Dallas Cowboys (5-8)
14. Chicago Bears (4-9)
15. Carolina Panthers (3-10)
Eliminated From Playoffs
16. New York Giants (2-11)
Bears’ Super Bowl Chances in Week 12
Can the Bears win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor that Chicago has a <0.1% chance to win it all.
Bears’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 13: at Detroit Lions
- Week 14: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 15: at Minnesota Vikings
- Week 16: vs. Detroit Lions
- Week 17: vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Week 18: at Green Bay Packers
What PFN Predicted for the Bears-Vikings Matchup
While Minnesota Vikings DC Brian Flores is a diabolical blitzer, that may not be his plan against Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams on Sunday.
No opposing team has blitzed Williams on over 38% of his dropbacks in a single game. Flores has crossed that threshold in five of the Vikings’ 10 games, but he’s typically sent blitzes against experienced quarterbacks like Brock Purdy and Jared Goff. He’s dialed it back in recent weeks against unproven signal-callers like Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence.
Moreover, Flores may think he can avoid blitzing while still getting pressure on Williams. Although the Bears’ offensive line is getting healthier, they’ve still had issues against wonky pressure looks. By using sim pressures and creepers — rushing four with at least one back-seven defender involved — the Vikings might be able to confuse Chicago’s OL without turning up the blitz.
Minnesota may need the extra bodies in coverage because they’ve struggled to contain passing attacks despite facing weak competition over the past month. Since Week 7, the Vikings rank 28th in EPA per dropback (-0.13) — mainly due to big plays. Only the Browns and (coincidentally) the Bears have allowed a higher explosive pass rate over the last four weeks.
If Chicago’s offensive line can hold up, Williams should have time to find Moore or Odunze for downfield chunk plays. But it seems just as likely that Minnesota’s front seven will wreak havoc on a disorganized Bears offensive operation.
PFN Prediction: Vikings 24, Bears 21