The Cincinnati Bengals‘ decision to part ways with long-time starting running back Joe Mixon naturally got fantasy managers excited about Chase Brown’s potentially expanded role in this offense in his second year in the NFL.
However, after the team addressed the position this offseason by signing Zack Moss in free agency, what expectations should fantasy football managers have for Brown heading into the 2024 NFL season?
Should You Select Chase Brown at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 120th Overall (RB41)
- Encouraging Finish to Rookie Season: Despite a slow start to his NFL career, Brown finished his rookie year with a strong performance over the final six games, seeing 10+ touches in four of those contests. His explosive playmaking ability was on display, including a 54-yard TD catch where he topped 22.05 mph, the second-fastest speed by a ball carrier in 2023.
- Role in 2024: With Joe Mixon now in Houston, Brown has a chance to carve out a significant role in the Bengals’ backfield. While the team signed Zack Moss, who had a productive 2023 season, Brown’s involvement with the first team in training camp suggests he could still secure a meaningful role, potentially as the primary pass-catching back.
- Competition with Zack Moss: Moss brings a strong physical profile and a history of high-volume touches, making him a candidate for the lead role. However, Brown’s explosiveness and ability to contribute in the passing game give him a path to fantasy relevance, especially if he can maintain a complementary role in a high-powered offense.
- Pass-Catching Potential: Brown’s receiving ability, highlighted by 41 catches over his final two years at Illinois, adds to his appeal as a fantasy asset. In a Bengals offense expected to be among the league’s highest-scoring units, this skill set could lead to an increase in his role and volume as the season progresses.
- ADP Analysis: Brown’s ADP at the end of the 10th round (RB41) reflects the potential for an expanded role in 2024. He’s being drafted alongside players like Jerome Ford, Blake Corum, and Trey Benson, making him a reasonable investment for managers looking for upside in this range.
- Final Verdict: Brown offers intriguing upside as a potential breakout candidate in a high-scoring offense, especially if he can secure a larger role than expected. However, the presence of Zack Moss does cap his floor. If you’re looking for a safer option, consider players like Gus Edwards or Ezekiel Elliott in this range. But if you want to swing for the fences, Brown is a solid pick with the potential to exceed expectations in 2024.
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PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Chase Brown
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Brown is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus RB rankings instead.Â
34) Gus Edwards, RB | Los Angeles Chargers
35) Tony Pollard, RB | Tennessee Titans
36) Nick Chubb, RB | Cleveland Browns
37) Austin Ekeler, RB | Washington Commanders
38) Trey Benson, RB | Arizona Cardinals
39) Chase Brown, RB | Cincinnati Bengals
40) Zach Charbonnet, RB | Seattle Seahawks
41) Jerome Ford, RB | Cleveland Browns
42) Blake Corum, RB | Los Angeles Rams
43) Chuba Hubbard, RB | Carolina Panthers
44) Antonio Gibson, RB | New England Patriots
Chase Brown’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
If Kyren Williams’ breakout fantasy season in 2023 has taught us anything, it’s to not completely overlook second-year running backs who failed to reach 50 carries in their rookie season.
Admittedly, Brown’s rookie production of RB63 overall with 44 carries for 179 rushing yards to go with 14 receptions for 156 receiving yards and one score doesn’t leave us with a whole lot to go on from 2023. However, there were some encouraging reps and upward usage trends over the back half of the season to suggest a bigger role in 2024 is certainly within the range of outcomes.
In fact, Brown was completely invisible in the offense through the first three months of his rookie season. His statistical production through the first 11 games of the year was five touches for 13 yards, though he missed four weeks due to an injury.
Fortunately for the believers in the former Illinois product, Brown’s lack of involvement while working behind long-time starter Joe Mixon changed drastically over the final six games of his rookie campaign.
Brown saw 10+ total touches in four of the last six contests and even managed to catch a pass in five straight games to close out the 2023 NFL season. During that stretch, Brown showcased some of his big-play ability with a 54-yard TD catch on a screen play against the Indianapolis Colts. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he topped 22.05 miles per hour on the play — the second-fastest mark by any ball carrier during the 2023 season.
This small glimpse of his explosive playmaking ability and his expanded role to close out his rookie year certainly warrants some consideration when trying to project the future usage in this backfield with Mixon now a member of the Houston Texans.
Unfortunately for those who were eager to crown Brown as the heir apparent of this backfield, the organization signed veteran running back Zack Moss to a two-year deal this offseason. Moss had a career year across the board working alongside Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis last year, finishing as the RB31 overall with 986 total yards and seven scores on 210 total touches in 2023.
Moss’ 215-pound frame and four-game stretch from Weeks 2-5 last year where he averaged 24 total touches per game suggest he could be the preferred leading ball carrier and short-yardage option in 2024. Yet, that doesn’t mean Brown won’t be a fantasy-relevant option if he secures a complementary role as the preferred pass-catching back in a high-powered Cincinnati offense.
Yet, multiple reports suggest Brown has been getting more run with the first team throughout training camp. This means even though Moss may have a better resume and physical profile as a leading ball carrier, it isn’t exactly a certainty the veteran back will lead this team in carries in 2024.
Brown caught 41 passes over his last two years at Illinois and certainly flashed some of his quality receiving chops at moments throughout his rookie campaign. The outlook isn’t exactly easy to pinpoint for him heading into the season, but it feels like he has a role that could see a jump in volume greater than many expect when we arrive at the start of the season.
Is Brown a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Brown’s ADP of No. 120 overall, going off the board at the end of the 10th round as the RB41, has his potential expanded role baked into his draft day price. Currently, he is being drafted right around Jerome Ford, Blake Corum, and Trey Benson.
Brown has an exciting amount of explosive playmaking ability in an offense many expect to be in the mix for the highest-scoring units in the 2024 NFL season. However, the presence of a high-volume ball carrier who was quite productive in 2023 certainly feels a bit problematic for projecting a full-blown breakout year for Brown.
If you are looking for a higher floor option in the 10th-round range, I’d recommend going with Gus Edwards or Ezekiel Elliott.
If you prefer to swing for the fences in this range and simply want a share of this Bengals’ backfield at a reasonable price, then Brown is a fine investment at this point of the draft. His upside in this offense if he secures the leading role certainly trumps many of the other backs going in this range.
