The New England Patriots are 3-12 and in position for a top-two pick, but yet the general sentiment seems to be extremely positive. This is because they successfully navigated a mid-season quarterback switch. Oftentimes, these switches don’t result in success, so it is a blessing for New England fans that Drake Maye has shown such promise so early in his career.
The Los Angeles Chargers should also be happy with their franchise-changing acquisitions in the offseason. Jim Harbaugh has instilled culture back into this team, and Jesse Minter has coached as well as any defensive coordinator this season.
They have an above-95% chance of making the playoffs and just need one more win to clinch it. The Chargers could be a wild card in the playoffs with a solid defense plus a top-five (ish, in my opinion) quarterback in Justin Herbert.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Chargers -4 - Moneyline
Chargers (-218); Patriots (+180) - Over/Under
42.5 total points - Game Time
1:00 p.m ET - Location
Gillette Stadium
Chargers vs. Patriots Preview and Prediction
With Maye as the starter, the Patriots jump from 28th in offensive EPA (expected points added) to 21st. Part of what makes his rookie season so impressive and promising is his out-of-structure heroics in spite of an awful offensive line.
According to TruMedia, the Patriots rank 11th in EPA on plays where Maye is outside of the pocket. To add context, the Patriots’ offensive line ranks 30th in pressure rate allowed despite a time to throw of 2.90 seconds, which is the 20th-quickest. The offensive line is also ranked 31st in PFF’s Pass Block Grade.
This won’t pose as much of a problem against a Chargers defense that ranks 21st in pressure generated and blitz at an average rate. This doesn’t mean New England will score at will because the Chargers still rank eighth in defensive EPA and 15th in success rate.
They also call the sixth-most varied coverages, which should help against a rookie quarterback. This has been a large part of the Chargers’ defensive success. Disguising coverage and confusing pre-snap reads for quarterbacks, especially rookies, has proven useful in stifling offenses.
The biggest weaknesses of the Chargers’ defense are man coverage and explosive passing plays. Los Angeles gives up 3.5 passes of 20 or more yards on average this season, which ranks 26th in the league. They also rank 31st in defensive EPA when running man coverage and ninth when running zone. Luckily, the Chargers run zone coverage on 79.2% of their plays, which is second-most.
The Patriots are not equipped to take advantage of these weaknesses as they rank 21st in EPA against man coverage and are 31st in passes of 20 or more yards. Both the Chargers’ defense and the Patriots’ offense excel at gaining/defending explosive rushing, so this is truly a strength-on-strength and weakness-on-weakness matchup.
Overall, I believe the Chargers have the advantage here. The Chargers are 9-2 ATS as favorites, ranging from one-point favorites to 8.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots are 6-8-1 ATS this season but have not been favored in any of their games.
As four-point underdogs against the Chargers, we can look at how New England has performed in similar spots. They were four-point dogs to the Los Angeles Rams and 3.5-point dogs to the Titans. They covered against the Titans and did not against the Rams. My belief on this is that they are much closer in value to the Titans than they are to the Rams. This argument holds for the Chargers as well.
My pick: Chargers -4