The Los Angeles Chargers take the NFL‘s top scoring defense into Cleveland to face a retooled Cleveland Browns offense, featuring QB Jameis Winston making his second straight start.
Here are picks and predictions from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman for the Chargers vs. Browns matchup.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 43.5) at Cleveland Browns
Bearman: We had the under in the Saints/Chargers game last week and never had a sweat. The play there, and again this week, is mostly on the fact the Chargers have one of if not the best defense in football and a typical Jim Harbaugh three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust offense.
There’s one unit in the NFL that has yet to give up more than 20 points in a game: this Chargers defense. L.A. is allowing 13 points per game, the best in the NFL, while at the same time only scoring 18.9 a game.
The Browns looked like a different team last week with Winston at QB, but it was also against an awful Baltimore Ravens secondary, which ranks dead last in pass yards allowed. The Chargers do not. One game with Winston isn’t convincing me that the Browns team, which is only ahead of the New England Patriots in yards per game, is magically fixed.
Harbaugh’s defense is a different challenge, and we are getting three more points than we got last week in the New Orleans Saints matchup. Not one Chargers game has reached 40 points this season. This one won’t either.
Pick: Under 43.5
Soppe: Given how the Chargers play, giving points on the road is a risk I’m not willing to take. Instead, let’s call for this to have more points scored than any other Los Angeles game up to this point!
That sounds dangerous, but it’s a low bar to clear. Winston has seen 13 of his past 20 starts go over the number when the spread is less than a field goal, not a surprising number as close games encourage him to be at his full YOLO capacity for 60 minutes. That is good news for over bettors, as a Winston throw carries point expectancy with it for both teams!
The Bolts have seen their pressure rate drop from 44.7% in Weeks 4-6 to 32.1% over the next two, and that is naturally going to up the scoring equity when the opponent is willing to take shots down the field. On the other side, Justin Herbert has seen his yards per completion increase in each game this year, and with the Browns allowing the fourth-most yards per catch after receptions this season, I like him to continue to trend upward.
Every Chargers game comes preloaded with more overtime potential than most, so that doesn’t hurt. This total has been getting some early attention (opened at 42.5), but I still think we have a point of value here to chase.
Pick: Over 43.5
Soppe: It’s great to see Nick Chubb on an NFL field, and I’m generally rooting for him, but where my heart is and where my wallet is aren’t always the same.
On average, defenses are playing with a lead for 40.4% of running back carries and have a success rate of 62.2%. Six defenses have come in over both of those numbers in at least half of their games this year:
- Houston Texans: 75%
- Kansas City Chiefs: 57.1%
- Los Angeles Chargers: 57.1%
- Minnesota Vikings: 57.1%
- Baltimore Ravens: 50%
- San Francisco 49ers: 50%
Those are the defenses that I’m fading running backs against right now (if you want the other end of that list, the Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins, and Seattle Seahawks are the teams yet to record such a game), but that’s not the only reason to be out on Chubb in this specific spot.
The veteran running back has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 70.4% of his carries this season (NFL running back average: 45.5%). To my eye, he’s looked about as healthy as you can expect given the injury he is recovering from, but if he’s not given the opportunity to get running downhill, he can only do so much.
Chubb’s situation isn’t helped at all by facing the slowest-moving team in the NFL. I’m skeptical that Cleveland’s lead back will see an average of four yards per carry or get much more than a dozen opportunities on the ground, and that makes reaching this total a difficult sell.
Pick: Nick Chubb under 56.5 rushing yards (would take down to 50.5)
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: We still haven’t seen 40 total points scored in a Charger game this season (the Browns aren’t exactly explosive on either side of the ball, but even they’ve seen 40 points hit three times this season).
QB: Over the past two weeks, Herbert is 20-of-24 for 328 yards and a touchdown when throwing out of play-action.
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, the Bolts averaged 1.5 points per drive. In the past three weeks, however, that number has spiked to 2.0 (up 33.3%).
Defense: Los Angeles is the only team in the league that can say they’ve recovered as many fumbles as rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed (three).
Fantasy: This is a low-volume offense, and those situations typically result in touchdowns to pay off fantasy managers — J.K. Dobbins was able to help you out with a short score, but that’s not going to be the norm for a team that ranks 31st in percentage of drives that reach the opponents’ 20-yard line (20.8%, only the Browns have been worse).
Betting: Unders are 5-1 in the last six Herbert starts in which the Chargers have been a road favorite.
Cleveland Browns
Team: Cleveland leads the league in play-action rate this season (19.4%), which it essentially mirrored in Winston’s first start (19.7%).
QB: Winston went 8-of-11 when throwing deep downfield (15+ air yards) on Sunday against the Ravens, totaling 167 yards and two touchdowns.
Offense: The Browns completed just 19.2% of their third downs through Week 6. Against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 7, they were 8-of-19 (42.1%); in the upset win over the Ravens on Sunday, 8-of-15 (53.3%).
Defense: Cleveland leads the NFL in pressure rate this season (42.7%) and made Lamar Jackson uncomfortable on 50% of his dropbacks last weekend (the second time this season, they created chaos on at least half of their opponents’ pass attempts).
Fantasy: David Njoku has scored in consecutive weeks and can be used as a weekly option across all formats with confidence as the featured pass catcher in the fourth-most pass-oriented offense when inside the red zone.
Betting: Since the beginning of last season, the Browns are 7-2 ATS when playing at home with a total that closes under 40 points (unders are 6-2-1 in those games).