Should I Draft CeeDee Lamb? Why the Cowboys WR Will Challenge To Finish as WR1 Again in 2024

CeeDee Lamb has gotten better every year of his career, both as a real-life player and as a fantasy asset. Last season, he finished as the overall WR1. Now that he’s reached the top, his cost in fantasy football drafts reflects that. Should fantasy managers spend a top-three overall pick on the Dallas Cowboys wide receiver?

CeeDee Lamb’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season

Is Lamb likely to finish as the overall WR1 again? Of course not. It’s extremely rare for the same player to finish atop his position in consecutive years.

That doesn’t mean we should fade Lamb, though. He’s still incredibly likely to finish as a high WR1, even if he’s not the absolute best.

For the past three years, progression has been baked into Lamb’s ADP. That’s the nature of modern fantasy football. Look no further than the prices associated with guys like Drake London and Garrett Wilson to see what I’m talking about.

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For the past two years, Lamb rewarded those who believed in him. He averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game in 2022, registering his first WR1 finish. Then, last season, he became the best wide receiver in fantasy.

From Week 6 onward, Lamb produced at a level the likes of which we have never seen. Over the final 12 games of the season (including Week 18), Lamb gave fantasy managers two 40-point games, another three 30-point games, and two more 25-point games. Most importantly, he never posted a single week below 16.5 fantasy points.

Lamb’s 23.7 fantasy points per game will likely end up being his career-high. That’s perfectly fine. If Lamb is now annually in the 19-22 ppg range until he’s past his prime, he will be well worth an early first-round pick.

Is Lamb a Good Fantasy Pick?

There are only two candidates for the overall WR1 spot — Lamb and Tyreek Hill. After considerable thought, I settled on Lamb as the top option.

We want to see NFL teams treat their alpha WR1… like an alpha WR1. As we will see with some other top receivers, they are not all treated the way that the Cowboys treat Lamb. The Cowboys understand that Lamb is the best player on the team and go out of their way to get him the ball.

Last season, Lamb saw a 29.9% target share and was targeted on 29.9% of his routes run. Furthermore, the Cowboys made a concerted effort to move Lamb all over the formation.

Per TruMedia, Lamb averaged 12.67 fantasy points per game from the slot alone. By way of comparison, that number was 5.19 in 2021.

The increased slot usage contributed to Lamb’s low 9.5-yard aDOT (average depth of target). Fortunately, Lamb is one of the best receivers in the league after the catch. He led all receivers with 680 yards after the catch, which helped him reach 2.89 yards per route run — fifth in the league.

Lamb is worth selecting as high as the first pick in the draft. Given the value of elite running backs, I would take each of the big three (Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall) before a wide receiver. But if you want to go WR first, you can’t go wrong with Lamb.

Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Insight on CeeDee Lamb

Simply put, Lamb is game-script-proof and can win at every level in any matchup. If you want to poke minor roles in his résumé, it would be the fact that he scored on “only” 6.9% of his outdoor receptions last season (indoors: 10.4%).

The only reason that note is worth bringing up is that Dallas plays a pair of outdoor games during the fantasy postseason. Yet, one of those games comes in Philadelphia, a spot he had no issue in producing a season ago (36.4% target share and 191 receiving yards).

There’s no way around labeling Lamb as a game-changer. With the elevated floor that he offers, he’s essentially a no-risk, all-reward pick to kick off your 2024 fantasy season. If your league starts three receivers, I’m very much looking at Lamb at the 1.01 spot, understanding that the value at the position is slightly more valuable in that format.