Carlton Davis appears to be one of the more under-the-radar options on the 2022 free agency market. Sitting 10th on PFN’s list of free agent rankings, Davis is ranked as the second-best available cornerback on the market this year. However, he has yet to play a full season in his career and missed seven games last season. Let’s take a look at his potential market value and make predictions for where Davis could end up this offseason.
Top predictions for free agent Carlton Davis
Davis is a really hard prospect to value this offseason. His completion rate allowed has never been above 63% in his career, but he has allowed 20 touchdowns in coverage in those four years. When you then add that to never having played more than 14 games in a season, there’s a lot for teams to unpack when considering him as a potential free agent addition.
Statistically, Davis’ numbers compare well to the highest-paid cornerbacks in the NFL. Accordingly, Spotrac has Davis’ market value at $19.6 million per year across five years. With the concerns laid out above, that feels like his ceiling. However, in a league that never seemingly has enough good cornerbacks to go around, if a bidding war for his services breaks out, he could break the $20 million a year mark. Let’s take a look at our predictions for which teams could be involved in a bidding war for Davis.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens’ offseason is likely to be fascinating. There is the looming question of a contract extension for Lamar Jackson, but there are also several needs they need to address. The retirement of Alejandro Villanueva has thrust the offensive line into the limelight. Yet, the defense has a lot of questions to answer, especially at cornerback.
The Ravens have proven they are willing to pay for quality options at cornerback. They spent big money on both Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey in recent years. The position needs to be addressed again this offseason, so they now need to decide whether to invest heavily again this year. Adding a player who has injury question marks could be a tough decision for a team that was devastated by injuries in 2021.
Houston Texans
One of the beauties of a player like Davis is that at just 25 years of age, he’s an option for both contenders and rebuilds alike. A team like the Texans is likely not expecting to contend in 2022 or maybe even 2023. But if their aim is 2024 or 2025, then Davis could still be a valuable contributor by then.
In the short term, a rebuilding team may have to overpay to get a quality player to think more long term. That could be a concern for the Texans, who are not flush with salary cap space in 2022. Nevertheless, the cap is expected to climb in the next few years. So Houston could make Year 1 cheap and then put a lot of guaranteed money into the second and third years to make it work.
New England Patriots
There is every expectation that the Patriots will be in the cornerback market this offseason. We have seen how they value having a high-class contributor at the position on their roster. Davis would certainly be that, and with J.C. Jackson expected to be priced out of New England, they are seemingly needing to look elsewhere.
However, Davis’ projected market value is not that far off what Jackson is expected to earn ($20-21 million per year). Therefore, why would New England look to save essentially very little money to bring in a new player over trying to retain their own free agent? If Davis’ value settles $5 million or more below that of Jackson, then this landing spot feels more likely.
New York Jets
The Jets are somewhat in the same vein as the Texans in terms of their outlook. Adding Davis would be less about trying to compete in 2022 and more about the 2023, 2024, and 2025 seasons. We saw with the Bengals how quickly things can turn around if your rookie QB develops as he grows into the NFL.
The Jets have a lot of youth in their secondary, but the jury is still out on the upside of the talent. Therefore, adding a player like Davis to be the leader of the group would give the Jets at least one known quantity to lean on. They can then take a look at how the other young options in the secondary could fit, with Davis the centerpiece of the plans.
Philadelphia Eagles
Of the free agent predictions for Davis listed here, the Eagles might very well be the best all-around fit. They have a few needs on their roster, but there aren’t any that they need to spend big money on — unless they have a change of heart at QB. Therefore, they have the ability to use their cap space to sign a high-end free agent like Davis.
The beauty for the Eagles of adding Davis is he can be a long-term and short-term solution. If Jalen Hurts works out and they feel they can compete in 2022, then Davis helps them achieve that. If they have to go back to the drawing board and start again in 2023, Davis can still hopefully contribute in 2024 and 2025.