The Chicago Bears made the brave move to part ways with Justin Fields and select QB Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Additionally, they added a trio of dynamic playmakers — Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift — to join DJ Moore and Cole Kmet as options in the passing game heading into his rookie year.
Does Williams have a legitimate overall QB1 upside in fantasy football heading into his rookie year in 2024?
Caleb Williams’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
The individual talent Williams possesses certainly makes him worthy of the praise he received over the final two years of his college career. His arm talent (both velocity and elasticity), off-script creation ability, flashes of processing, and excellent touch on all three levels of the football field make him a great quarterback prospect entering the league.
Stepping into a situation where he’ll have four players — Moore, Allen, Swift, and Kmet — who all registered top-24 fantasy finishes at their respective positions last year doesn’t exactly hurt entering his first year in the NFL either. This doesn’t even account for the exceptional talents of the other rookie Chicago added to the offense in the draft (Odunze), making this arguably the best fantasy situation a No. 1 overall pick has ever seen.
These options in the passing game give Williams an exciting outlook as a passer, but fantasy managers shouldn’t overlook his ability as a dual-threat option entering his rookie year. He did run for 966 yards and 27 rushing TDs over his three college seasons. Sure, these don’t give him an elite rushing ceiling, but somewhere around 400 yards and five rushing scores isn’t outside of the range of outcomes either.
Ultimately, Williams’ fantasy success will be determined by how quickly he can pick up Bears’ offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s system. Can he play within the structure and limit the turnover-worthy plays to help maximize possessions and scoring opportunities? Will his improvisational style flourish in the NFL?
Fantasy managers won’t know until he takes the field this year but will likely have to draft him at a starting fantasy quarterback price to get that answer.
Williams’ ADP is currently pretty pricey, going off the board at No. 97 overall as the QB15. For some additional context, Williams is currently being drafted ahead of Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, and Aaron Rodgers heading into his rookie year.
There is no denying that Williams is stepping into a very fantasy-friendly situation. His collection of pass-catchers rivals any other receiver room in the NFL. Yet, he is still just a rookie signal caller who is likely to have some real growing pains adjusting to the professional game.
Williams’ price point in the ninth round is fairly reasonable but still a bit risky given the uncertain expectations for the Bears’ offense in 2024.
If you believe Williams’ brief struggles during his final year at USC were tied to poor offensive line play and a terrible defense that forced him to play a bit recklessly with the ball last year, then you are probably willing to overlook those concerns. He truly does have some elite traits and a great complement of weapons at his disposal.
The price point isn’t bad considering the upside tied to his situation, but ultimately investing that type of draft capital in a rookie quarterback feels a bit too risky for my liking.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Analysis for Caleb Williams
Williams’ ADP is currently in the middle of a tier with Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Herbert – all of whom are going in Rounds 9-10 (for the record, QB8 is a late fifth/early sixth-round pick).
Williams could be great, and I’d argue for his ceiling over any of those options being selected in his vicinity. That said, there is an inherent risk that comes with any rookie, and that lands him in a range of quarterbacks for whom I’m okay with drafting as a backup.
Can I interest you in taking Young with your final pick? He’s far from a stable option, but the Panthers did bring in an offensive mind and some additional personnel. Also working in favor of this idea is the fact that Young plays the Washington Commanders during Williams’ bye week and the Philadelphia Eagles when Williams travels to San Francisco in Week 14.
It may not feel comfortable (okay, it definitely won’t), but draft strategies like this, where you look to duct tape together the position while building a super team elsewhere, can work if done correctly.