Neither the Miami Dolphins nor the Buffalo Bills entered halftime of Week 1 with a lead, but both came away with a one-score victory.
Since 2022, the Dolphins are 7-1 in the month of September and rank second in that time frame in total EPA (expected points added). The team that ranks first? The Bills. If you shorten the horizon from Mike McDaniel’s tenure just to last week and last season, Miami and Buffalo remain the top two teams, but the Dolphins move ahead to first.
Two teams that like to start the season off hot will face off for a chance to take an early lead in the divisional race.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Dolphins -2 - Moneyline
Dolphins (-135), Bills (-114) - Over/Under
49 total points - Game time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami)
Bills vs. Dolphins Preview and Prediction
The hardest part about Weeks 1-7 of the NFL season is knowing when to use prior information from past seasons and knowing when to update with new information. Ranking second in EPA per drop back according to TruMedia, Josh Allen continued to show his disregard while under pressure. His biggest strength again came from scrambling, achieving an EPA of 6.24 (second in the league) when scrambling under pressure.
Per ESPN, the Dolphins’ defense ranked 19th and 13th in pass rush and run-stop win rates, respectively. They managed to pressure Trevor Lawrence on nine drop backs leading him to an EPA of -2.17 (18th of 37). This won’t be enough to stop Allen.
Even more alarming is the fact that Tua Tagovailoa ranked 26th of 37 quarterbacks last week in terms of EPA under pressure. This happened despite facing Jacksonville’s defense that ranked 26th in pass-rush win rate and only amassed six pressures (second to last). The Bills ranked 10th last week with 14 pressures against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.
When comparing the offensive lines of the Cardinals and Dolphins, Miami ranked sixth in pass-block win rate, whereas Arizona ranked 15th. It’s hard to tell whether the Dolphins’ offensive line has improved or whether they faced a bad Jaguars pass rush. Nevertheless, there is certainly concern that Miami will struggle if Buffalo manages to get pressure.
The path to victory for the Dolphins is straight forward. Keep Tua upright and get the ball out quickly. Last week, Miami was able to overcome his struggles against pressure by getting the ball out in 2.38 seconds, good for third fastest in the league.
Furthermore, the Dolphins encouraged their speedy athletes to take advantage of yards after catch (yac) opportunities by throwing 14 attempts behind the line of scrimmage last week. The Bills’ defense gave up 0.03 EPA less than the league average last week, while the Dolphins were 0.27 EPA above the league average (third in the league) in yards after catch.
My picks: I like the over in this game, as it looks like both teams’ strength is in their offense. As for the spread, I recommend taking an alternate of Bills +3 or Bills +4. I like Buffalo and think they have a solid shot at winning. Yet, this is too close and is represented well by Vegas odds.
Alternate Picks: Josh Allen 250+ pass yards (+100), Josh Allen 2+ pass TDs (+100)
TNF Picks from PFN’s Other Betting Analysts
Bearman: Both rosters have many injury question marks, and with this being a short week, no one really knows who will be healthy or not.
When you think of the Bills and Dolphins, you think of playmakers and offense, and you are often correct. However, not in Miami. The last three times these teams did battle in Miami (2021-23), they scored 35, 40, and 35. Two of those games were early in the season, like this one, and the other was the de facto AFC East division title game in Week 18 last year.
Maybe it’s the heat and humidity, which will be high on Thursday night, or maybe the defenses just play better down there. Either way, the high end of those three scores was 40, which is eight and a half points lower than the current total.
Miami might be without their top two running backs, and Josh Allen is already banged up on the Buffalo side. Miami and Tua have consistently struggled against Buffalo, breaking 20 only twice in the last 7 meetings. Since joining Miami, Tyreek has yet to have a 100-yard game. It all adds up to a 24-20 type game on Thursday night.
Pick: Under 48.5
Soppe: As we get ready for this fun divisional battle, there are some things we know. We know that Josh Allen has played the Dolphins 13 times (playoffs included), and that he’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in every one of those contests (you can get him to extend that streak at +100).
We know that Dalton Kincaid was on the field for 87.9% of Buffalo’s snaps in their Week 1 win. And we know that the alpha target earner is up for grabs in Buffalo’s offense.
Taking all of that into consideration, we can approach the props market in an aggressive manner.
Since the beginning of last season, no team has allowed a higher red-zone completion percentage than Miami (66.7%, NFL average: 55.4%). All signs are pointing to the Bills (third in percentage of trips that reach the red zone since the beginning of last season) having success moving the ball, and given that they prioritized keeping Kincaid on the field last week, I’m happy to back all of his props in this spot.
The touchdown angle has my attention when it comes to the juiciest price tag, but I don’t think there’s a wrong way to go about investing in the tight end. Last season, Kincaid averaged 5.8 catches per game when playing at least two-thirds of the snaps, and his low depth of target (4.6 yards) in those games breeds efficiency.
In addition to him finding paydirt, I’ll have exposure to Kincaid clearing 4.5 catches, a prop that carries a plus-money price tag this week — a near 50-cent jump in payout from where the exact prop stood last week against the Cardinals.
Picks: Dalton Kincaid Anytime TD (+220) & Dalton Kincaid Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)
Blewis: Going into this season, there was much intrigue about how Allen’s new receivers’ target distribution would look.
Curtis Samuel was one of the many new faces added to the Bills’ offense in free agency, and the early returns after Week 1 were not promising.
Samuel finished the day catching both of his two targets for a total of 15 yards. While Keon Coleman was Buffalo’s only player with more than three targets, Samuel was a distant fourth among their wide receivers in both snaps and routes run, according to TruMedia.
This week, his line is at 18.5, and considering his career history of having a low aDOT, I feel comfortable taking this under because of his low usage.
Pick: Curtis Samuel Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Blewis: When Joe Brady took over as interim offensive coordinator last season, the Bills shifted towards a more run-heavy approach. Going into this season, that was expected to be the case again after Buffalo parted ways with their two most productive receivers.
After Week 1, that has so far proven to be correct, as the Bills were 23rd in pass rate over expectation. Keep in mind too that in their win over the Cardinals, they trailed by a touchdown at the half and only led by three points with 8:31 remaining.
Like in the second half of last season, the beneficiary here is James Cook, who had 19 of Buffalo’s 24 rushing attempts from their running backs on Sunday.
The risk here is that the Bills are road underdogs against a good Dolphins team, but considering that Allen is dealing with a hand injury (though full participant in practice) on a short week, I like my chances of Cook being heavily involved considering their run-first approach.
Pick: James Cook Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-105)