The Baltimore Ravens are much better than their 1-2 record seems to suggest. In Week 2, the Ravens out-gained the Las Vegas Raiders in yards by a margin of 383-260 despite less time of possession. The Ravens also had a better offensive and defensive EPA (expected points added) but still lost. With that being said, I still believe the Ravens are a top-tier competitor in the AFC.
The Buffalo Bills are undefeated and have the clear MVP front-runner in Josh Allen. The team has been playing really well but still somehow underdogs in this Sunday night matchup.
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Ravens -2.5 - Moneyline
Ravens (-135); Bills (+114) - Over/Under
46.5 total points - Game Time
8:20 p.m. ET - Location
M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
Ravens vs. Bills Preview and Prediction
TruMedia defines garbage time as games that have a point differential of 25 or more under seven minutes left, 17 or more with under five minutes left, or nine or more with under two minutes left. The Bills’ offense ranks first in the league in EPA excluding garbage time.
This is in large part due to their passing offense, which also ranks No. 1, while their rushing offense ranks 20th in EPA. This bodes well for their matchup as they will face a Ravens defense that ranks 20th and 23rd against the run and pass (using EPA), respectively.
Furthermore, the Bills’ offensive line has done well this year. Ben Baldwin compiles a composite grade for pass protection using a combination of ESPN’s pass block win rate, Sports Info Solutions’ blown block percentage, and PFF grade. The Bills rank second in this metric behind only the Indianapolis Colts.
They also rank ninth in quick pressures allowed (pressures allowed in under 2.5 seconds). Pair this with the fact that the Ravens rank 29th in generating pressure and 24th in generating quick pressure, and you will see the Bills have a clear offensive advantage.
The Ravens boast the top-ranked rushing offense by EPA, while the Bills’ run defense sits at 25th. In the passing game, the Ravens rank 15th, but they’ll face a tough challenge against the Bills’ second-ranked pass defense.
Despite concerns about the Ravens’ offensive line heading into the season, they’ve excelled, allowing the second-fewest quick pressures and ranking first overall in pressures allowed. This is particularly impressive given that Lamar Jackson has the third-longest average time to throw in the league.
Overall, I don’t understand what the Ravens have shown this season to be favored in this matchup. I think both offenses have a clear advantage over one another with the Bills’ advantages being larger and more important, considering the value of passing versus rushing.
My pick: Bills +2.5, Bills ML (114), Over 46.5 total points