The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Carolina Panthers in Week 13. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Buccaneers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Baker Mayfield, QB
How long is the list of quarterbacks that are more fun to watch when they are feeling themselves than Baker Mayfield? Heck, is it even a list? It might be a single name (Patrick Mahomes gets my vote, with Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson also in this conversation).
Sadly, “fun” doesn’t always mean massive fantasy numbers. His Superman dive into the end zone last week against the Giants helped his Week 12 bottom line, but with just one touchdown toss over his past two games (59 attempts), the floor is worrisome.
That said, this is obviously a great matchup, and the accuracy that Mayfield has shown (at least 74% completion in three of his past four games) allows him to sneak into the backend of my QB1 rankings this week, checking in ahead of Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes.
Bucky Irving, RB
Rookie running backs over the past decade have multiple games with at least 40 rushing yards and six receptions:
- Alvin Kamara (five)
- Saquon Barkley (four)
- Najee Harris (three)
- James Robinson (two)
- Bijan Robinson (two)
- Bucky Irving (two).
Now that’s a list. Irving might be on the fast track to fantasy stardom, and while I don’t think we are there yet, he’s made this backfield hierarchy easier to sort out.
The short Sean Tucker rushing score on the first drive last week was annoying, but you have to take the bad with the good. Irving was responsible for six of Baker Mayfield’s first 16 completions in Week 12, a level of involvement that is more than enough to lock in.
- Weeks 10-12: 55% red-zone snap share (Rachaad White: 45%)
- Weeks 1-9: 44% red-zone snap share (Rachaad White: 67.7%)
In terms of success rate, the Panthers own the second-worst rush defense in all the land, and there is no question that Irving holds the edge over White between the tackles. The rookie is to be considered an RB2 this week, and I think that ranking sticks for the remainder of the season.
Rachaad White, RB
Tampa Bay’s backfield is very clearly trending away from Rachaad White, but he is holding onto Flex value this week thanks to his versatility and a matchup with the worst defense in the league when it comes to points allowed per drive.
Buccaneers RB snaps shares, Week 12:
- Bucky Irving: 54.8%
- White: 46.8%
- Sean Tucker: 8.1%
The Sean Tucker thing is what could be a problem. If his role gets expanded, a three-back committee is difficult to feel good about. White has earned at least six targets or run for a score in five straight games, a form that slides him inside my top 35 at the position, even as I continue putting air in Irving’s tires.
Jalen McMillan, WR
Jalen McMillan led the Buccaneers’ receivers in routes run last week with 22, but he managed to earn just two looks (one catch for 11 yards). The rookie’s role was limited with both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans succeeding early in the season, but even with various injuries, he’s yet to progress in a meaningful way.
Tampa Bay has committed to McMillan and Sterling Shepard alongside Evans in their primary three-receiver sets, but we don’t get points for snaps played, and up to this point, it’s clear that he’s not quite ready to win at the professional level (yet to clear 35 receiving yards in a game).
The post-hype sleeper potential will be there for next season, but as far as 2024 is concerned, you can look elsewhere for upside.
Mike Evans, WR
Mike Evans was back on the field for the Bucs and immediately led the team in targets (six) and receiving yards (68) in the one-sided win over the Giants.
Was there some hesitation from Tampa Bay to fully unleash him? He posted a 10.8 aDOT in his return after missing over a month (four games prior: 13.8), something that I have on my notepad as something to watch, but not something that I’m yet reacting to, understanding that he could be ramping up to the role we’ve come to know and love.
This is as good a spot as any for the Bucs to return their WR1 to his field-stretching role – the Panthers rank 26th or worst against the deep pass in terms of completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdown rate.
Sportsbooks are projecting Tampa Bay for north of 25 points in this game. I don’t trust any other pass catcher in this offense, so Evans slots in as a WR1 in my Week 13 rankings.
Cade Otton, TE
I’m going to keep posting these pretty target plots in this space until I get some sort of confirmation that people are listening.
On the left below is Cade Otton’s target distribution with Mike Evans on the field this season; on the right, without. There’s a 27.5% dip in the average depth of his targets to consider, but I’m less worried about where the dots are and more worried about the lack of dots.
Otton has run 183 routes with Evans on the field and 188 without — he has more catches (32) with him off the field than he has targets with him on it (29).
I understand wanting to chase Otton’s season-long numbers, and heck, he did have a 30-yard catch last week, but we are talking about a player in a position to earn one target for every 6.3 routes for a six-point road favorite.
How many routes is he realistically going to run? Does he reach the 28 he did last week? I understand that Noah Gray scored twice in this matchup last week, but I’m dismissive of DvP data when it comes to the tight end position, especially when you’re talking about an offense in Kansas City that offers unique packages and another tight end to draw attention.
Otton isn’t a starter for me this week, and as long as the data doesn’t change and Evans stays on the field, that’s not going to change any time soon.
