The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Buccaneers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Baker Mayfield, QB
Does the clock strike midnight here? Your gut reaction, and mine as well, was an emphatic “yes”, but the numbers paint a more optimistic picture and land Baker Mayfield in a massive tier of quarterbacks for me this week that ranges from QB13 to QB20 in my ranks.
While it’s true that the Chiefs’ defense ranks top five in yards per play, yards per game, and pressures per game, they are an aggressive bunch, and Mayfield has excelled in such spots. He draws the ninth blitz-happiest unit this week, which could play out to his advantage as he averages 8.7 yards per pass with an 8.5% TD rate when the opponent brings an extra man.
For context, Mayfield ranks fourth in blitzed passer rating through eight weeks, producing a mark that is 34.8% higher than when not blitzed.
Mayfield ranks second to only Tua Tagovailoa in quick release rate, a style of offense that naturally lends itself to beating the blitz. I’m not saying he’s bulletproof, but he’s been a QB1 in seven of eight games, and it’s not a crazy thought he could make it eight of nine — especially if you believe Kansas City’s offense can push him.
I think Mayfield makes for an interesting DFS Showdown play on Monday night. When props are released, I might also be invested in a few Mayfield overs if the public overestimates his potential struggles in this tough spot.
Bucky Irving, RB
As much as I like what we see from Bucky Irving on a weekly basis, Rachaad White continues to be just involved, and that’s a problem in a tough matchup like this.
The Chiefs own the highest success rate against running backs and have an offense that can control the tempo. My problem with the Bucs is that they have two backs that thrive as pass catchers. How are we supposed to project usage with confidence?
I have Irving (seven catches last week and 14 catches on 15 targets in October) as the favorite to lead Tampa Bay’s backfield in touches thanks to the edge in rushing efficiency, but this is a hot-hand situation that will be a headache moving forward.
Rachaad White, RB
White has been a top-20 running back in consecutive weeks, though he is walking a fine line after losing a fumble on his second carry last week (only four rush attempts the rest of the way).
Week 7 snap shares:
- Rachaad White: 47.4%
- Bucky Irving: 35.9%
- Sean Tucker: 19.2%
Week 8 snap shares:
- White: 55.6%
- Irving: 41.7%
- Tucker: 11.1%
White’s versatility remains intoxicating because of how quickly the fantasy points can add up. I still prefer Irving because I think he offers similar juice and projects for more touches, but both are reasonable Flex options in a game where Tampa Bay will try to win the time-of-possession battle by way of conservative play-calling.
Jalen McMillan, WR
Snaps (90%) and looks (seven targets) weren’t the issue last week, and that’s a positive as we look to build super teams. We thought that he would fill the Mike Evans role, and his 14.6-yard aDOT would suggest that was accurate, but it turns out that you can’t just plug in a rookie and assume he’ll replicate the production of a future Hall of Famer.
Evans will miss another game, and that puts McMillan on the Flex radar, though I’m not crazy about tempting fate against a top-10 defense in terms of pressure rate and yards per pass.
The rookie settles in as my WR39, ranking in the same tier of usable waiver wire additions as Jake Bobo and Cedric Tillman.
Mike Evans, WR
The Buccaneers announced last week that Evans (hamstring) would miss four weeks. They went out of their way to say “weeks” and not “games,” thus leading to the expectation that he is back after the Week 11 bye.
That’s not ideal, but at least you’re not left wondering if he’ll suit up in the short term. The cautious approach also allows him to be at full strength for a favorable schedule in Weeks 12-14 (Giants, Panthers, and Raiders) as you look to improve your playoff seed.
Evans may not help you this week or next — if you can tread water, however, he might play a big role in your run to glory.
Cade Otton, TE
The star of National Tight Ends Day (officially the final Sunday of October for those keeping track at home) scored twice, doubling his scoring output from his previous 11 regular season games in the process.
Otton has caught 17 of 20 targets over the past two weeks, establishing himself as the lone soldier still standing for Baker Mayfield in this passing game. That role isn’t going to change this week, and that elevates Otton to a top-12 play, even when facing the fifth-best defense in terms of both scoring and yards per play allowed.
My answer would be “Yes.” Yes, I would sell Otton for a viable Flex piece if given the opportunity as I don’t think his value the rest of the way is drastically ahead of replacement level.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs Insights
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: This is the first of a seven-game stretch that sees Tampa Bay play five road games.
QB: Baker Mayfield has thrown for 325 yards and three touchdowns in three straight games – the last player with a four-game streak was Aaron Rodgers bridging the 2012-13 seasons.
Offense: The Bucs are averaging 2.57 points per drive, pacing for their second most this millennium (other: 2020, Super Bowl champions).
Defense: Over the past two weeks (BAL and ATL), Tampa Bay has allowed 3.6 points per drive (Weeks 1-6: 2.0).
Fantasy: We spent a lot of time last week trying to pin the tail on the Buccaneer WR most likely to step up when it proved to be the existing pieces—against the Falcons, Cade Otton, Bucky Irving, and Rachaad White accounted for 48.2% of Tampa Bay’s receiving yards and 56.8% of their receptions.
Betting: Tampa Bay is 4-16 ATS (20%) over their past 20 primetime games (0-2 this season in a pair of shootouts – 36-30 loss to the Falcons in Week 5 and a 41-31 loss to the Ravens in Week 7).
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: This isn’t the high-flying offense we want it to be, but there is an offensive floor that comes with Patrick Mahomes, and that’s enough—this team hasn’t lost a game in which they’ve scored over 20 points since December 4, 2022 (at Bengals).
QB: Mahomes doesn’t have a completion that traveled 20 yards in the air in October.
Offense: The Chiefs averaged 31.1 points per game in their 2022 wins. That number dropped to 25.0 last season and is even lower in their undefeated start this season (24.7).
Defense: They proved willing to ramp up the aggression last week in Vegas if they identify it as a weakness of their opponent – 47.1% blitz rate after checking in under 28% in each of their three games prior.
Fantasy: Mahomes hasn’t finished better than QB16 in six straight games and has a lower pass touchdown rate than Will Levis this season.
Betting: Mahomes has covered all three of his primetime games this season (Ravens, Falcons, and Saints) after covering just three of his most recent 11 regular season primetime games entering 2024.