The Denver Broncos will face the Carolina Panthers in Week 8. We have fantasy football start-sit advice for every fantasy-relevant player for the Broncos so you can make the best decisions for your lineups.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 8 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Bo Nix, QB
Nix represents the area between on-field assets and fantasy difference-makers. In essence, he is the embodiment of how we all treated Jayden Daniels this offseason. We thought there would be a significant learning curve but that the role would be fantasy-friendly.
Turns out, we far underestimated Daniels, so let’s not make the same mistake and sleep on Nix. He’s the fourth rookie over the past 15 seasons to post consecutive games with 25 passing attempts and 60 rushing yards, joining Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Robert Griffin III on that list.
Not bad company, right?
Nix is far from a finished product as a passer, but there are some signs of development. And with his rushing profile, that’s all it takes to put him in the top-15 conversation; on DFS radars in a plus matchup like this, even without the benefit of having teams on a bye.
Over the past three weeks, Nix’s passer rating is 49.6%, and his completion percentage on passes thrown 5+ yards downfield is up 19 percentage points over that stretch. Again, not perfect, but against the lowest pressure team in the league, at home, and coming off of an encouraging performance that carries the mini bye with it?
I’m in.
Javonte Williams, RB
Williams looked great in last Thursday night’s blowout of the Saints, and given the direction he is trending, I think it might just be here to stay. Despite three different running backs recording a first-quarter carry for the Broncos, Williams’ star shined the brightest, and that is likely to strengthen his hold on the bell-cow role that we were questioning just a few short weeks ago.
Last week, Williams was on the field for 71% of the snaps when the score differential was single digits. Over the past three weeks, any metric you look at is trending in the right direction.
Weeks 1-4:
- 31.8% fantasy points under expectation
- 7.5% of carries gained 10+ yards
- 1.02 yards per carry before contact
Weeks 5-7:
- 13.5% fantasy points over expectation
- 15.2% of carries gained 10+ yards
- 3.24 yards per carry before contact
We spent the offseason suggesting that Williams being two years removed from the knee injury gave him access to a ceiling far beyond what we saw in 2023. For those who invested, it would appear that this stock is ready to take off.
Even if you don’t believe that the Broncos are a playoff team, the goal of developing Bo Nix is atop their to-do list, and establishing Williams is a big part of that. In Weeks 4-7, Nix has completed 71.4% of his play-action passes with a 100.6 passer rating, a massive leap forward from his numbers through three weeks (59.3% and 56.4).
Williams is easily a top-15 running back this week in a perfect matchup off of the mini-bye. While his production could fade early in November (Ravens/Chiefs in Weeks 9-10), I expect him to make some noise when your fantasy league champion is being decided (Weeks 15-17: Colts, Chargers, and Bengals).
Courtland Sutton, WR
Man do I feel bad for the super casual fantasy player. That person went to bed without too much concern about their fantasy team, saw that the Broncos scored 33 points on Thursday when they woke up on Friday and remembered that they have Sutton on their fantasy team.
As they were trying to open up their fantasy app, I’m sure thoughts like, “I hope I had him in,” or, “I hope my opponent didn’t have him,” ran through their mind. They were unable to name any other Broncos receiver and assumed that, in 2024, scoring 33 points means a strong day through the air.
I feel for those people.
Sutton was on the field for 86.9% of Denver’s offensive snaps in the blowout win, and let’s just say he’s lucky to be getting paid by the games played total and not the production.
The man didn’t see a target. Not one. With the Saints’ secondary losing players left and right, all 15 WR targets went to Marvin Mims Jr., Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, or Lil’Jordan Humphrey. In August, if I gave you that list of names and told you they were either the jazz quartet playing at happy hour on Wednesday nights or the Broncos target earners, would you have answered correctly?
Sutton entered the week having scored in two of three games, but none of the underlying numbers paint an optimistic picture when you take a step back. This offense doesn’t attack vertically (the one-time feared downfield threat doesn’t have a 30-yard catch this season), and his on-field target share, despite Jerry Jeudy’s offseason departure, hasn’t budged. He has four times as many finishes this season outside of the top 50 as he does inside the top 24, making him more risk than reward until proven otherwise (-25.5% fantasy points compared to expectations this season).
Without any teams on a bye, I’m not tempted to put Sutton into starting lineups this week. I don’t think I’d sell him low or anything like that right now with the Panthers this week and the pass-funnel Ravens next, but he’s nothing more than lineup depth at this point.
Devaughn Vele, WR
The 6’5” rookie out of Utah had an early 20-yard grab on Thursday night, and that was it for the entire game. There is a process that lands you on Vele, and that is why I’m mentioning him in this space: 83.1% of his routes over the past two weeks have come from the slot, and with his size profile, that creates matchup problems that could be exploited reasonably given the conservative nature of this offense (Week 7 vs. Chargers: 78 yards on six targets).
It looks like he is part of a receiver-by-committee situation that is going to have him on the field for about half of the snaps, and that’s not enough to hold my interest in redraft formats. That said, what about a cheap DFS punt play when this team projects to be playing from behind against a defense that is vulnerable to slot production? Then, you might be onto something. Consider this me planting the seed — Denver is going to be a big underdog in Weeks 9-10 in Baltimore and Kansas City, two secondaries that have had their fair share of issues with the slot.
There are a million ways to beat Carolina, making me less inclined to roll the dice on this ultra-specific play in Week 8 — but save these notes. There’s a daily case to be made as we work our way into November.
Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos Game Insights
Carolina Panthers
Team: The Panthers have created pressure on just 21.9% of their blitzes this season (the NFL average nets out around 41%).
QB: Andy Dalton has failed to average even six yards per pass attempt in all four games since that shocking performance, throwing an interception in each of those contests (held without a touchdown toss in two of them).
Offense: The Panthers have scored 37 points in three October games (they are allowing 38 PPG in those games).
Defense: The Panthers allow 34.7 PPG (243 total points allowed). That’s tied with the 2020 Dallas Cowboys for the most points allowed through seven games in the last 50 seasons.
Fantasy: Jonathan Brooks’ debut is coming, but Chuba Hubbard has scored in four of his past five games and has been an RB2 or better in six straight.
Betting: Since the start of last season, the Panthers are 3-8 ATS on the road when the total closes under 45 points.
Denver Broncos
Team: The Broncos are seeking to improve to 5-3. They haven’t been above .500 through eight games since 2016, when they were 6-2.
QB: Bo Nix scrambled on 21.2% of his dropbacks in Week 7 vs. the Saints, tied with Jayden Daniels for the highest scramble rate in a game this season.
Offense: The Broncos averaged 6.1 yards per rush in Week 6 vs. the Chargers and 6.4 yards per rush in Week 7 vs. the Saints. It’s the first time Denver has averaged at least six yards per rush in consecutive games since 2011 (Weeks 8-9), during Tim Tebow’s stint as their starting QB.
Defense: The Broncos had a season-high 21 pressures in Week 7 vs. the Saints. That included six pressures from Zach Allen, who has accounted for 35% of Denver’s pressures this season (third-highest among interior linemen behind Chris Jones and Kobie Turner).
Fantasy: Courtland Sutton was not targeted for the first time in his career in Week 7. Sutton’s 28 routes run without a target were tied for the second-most by a wide receiver this season, trailing Justin Watson of the Chiefs (31 in Week 5, also vs. the Saints).
Betting: Under tickets have cashed in eight of Denver’s past nine played on extended rest (this is their first game of 2024) – they’ve covered eight of their past 11 such games.
