The Denver Broncos will face the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 12. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Broncos and Raiders skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Denver Broncos Start-Sit Advice
Bo Nix, QB
Bo Nix has a pair of finishes inside of the top three at the position over the past four weeks, matching Josh Allen in that regard for the season. He’s far from a finished product, but for our game, he’s already an asset.
We saw some of the development from Nix in Denver’s first drive last week — he completed four of five passes while targeting four different players and firing a touchdown in the process. He’s checking all of the boxes we want, and that lands him inside my top 10 this week against a defense that allows the third most yards per slot pass attempt this season.
Why highlight that specific stat? Nix is a cool 13-of-13 for 141 yards and a touchdown to the slot over the past two weeks. Buckle up, this isn’t a flash in the pan!
Audric Estimé, RB
Well, that was fun, wasn’t it?
One week after Audric Estimé looked like the lead back of a surprisingly good Denver team, he handled 23.1% of their rush attempts and wasn’t involved at all in their opening script (first drive: nine plays, 70 yards, and a touchdown).
Broncos RB snap shares, Week 11:
- Javonte Williams: 53.3%
- Audric Estimé: 21.7%
- Jaleel McLaughlin: 13.3%
The rookie ran six times for 16 yards in the 32-point win over the Falcons and victimized all fantasy managers who spent big on him in free agency. I’m not sold that this is the Williams show in Denver, but he does profile as the best bet moving forward in what could be a backfield that has three viable NFL options but zero reliable fantasy options.
The Broncos ran for 109 yards and a score in their first meeting with the Raiders this season. The rushing pie might be a big one in this spot, but without any level of confidence in the size of Estimé’s slice, there’s no way you can justify playing him over a receiver in the Flex range like Quentin Johnston.
I’d even go down to rookie receivers with more solidified roles (think Jalen Coker and Jalen McMillan types) before tempting fate with Estimé this weekend.
Javonte Williams, RB
I thought Javonte Williams ran hard last week, and that’s all we can ask for in the hopes that one of these running backs gives Sean Payton the confidence to feature him. Until that is the case, and I’m not sold that it is just yet, starting Williams with confidence would be a tough sell if not for this specific situation (plus matchup and six teams on a bye).
When these teams first met back in Week 5, the Broncos averaged 4.4 yards per carry on 19 rushing attempts and saw four different players rip off a gain of 10+ yards on the ground. We’ve seen Williams reach his ceiling at times this season with three RB1 finishes, and his versatility could be weaponized against a Vegas defense that has the lowest average depth of opponent throws this season.
Your fate is in the hands of Payton, a rookie quarterback, and a backfield that has three options. You’re never going to feel comfortable in a spot like that, but I think we are looking at 12-15 touches — that’s enough to land Williams in my RB2 tier for Week 12.
Courtland Sutton, WR
Courtland Sutton was limited to just 32 yards (two catches) on five targets when these two teams met back in Week 5, but that feels like ages ago at this point.
Bo Nix’s push for Rookie of the Year consideration has been tied to his willingness to load up his WR1 with opportunities, and it’s paying off. Sutton has four straight games with at least six catches, eight targets, and 70 yards (in those games: 73.7% catch rate).
He’s begun to mix deep bombs (second-most air yards in the league this season) with TD equity (three straight games with an end-zone target), a level of development with his first-year QB that you absolutely love to see.
The Raiders allow the sixth-highest red-zone passer rating, and there’s no place Nix would rather go in scoring situations than Sutton. We entered the season with far greater expectations for CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, and Zay Flowers when compared to Denver’s top receiver — I have them all ranked below Sutton for Week 12.
Josh Reynolds, WR
Updated at 6:45 PM ET on Monday, December 2
Reynolds is inactive for tonight's game
Josh Reynolds (finger) was activated from injured reserve last week and practiced, but he was ultimately inactive for Week 11. The surprise Broncos are a better team now than the one Reynolds left injured in Week 5, but Denver has yet to unlock the secondary-pass-catcher role next to Courtland Sutton.
Broncos receiving yardage leaders, 2024:
- Courtland Sutton: 647 receiving yards (14th in the NFL)
- Devaughn Vele: 281 (108th)
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 263 (113th)
- Javonte Williams: 250 (120th)
- Josh Reynolds: 183 (160th)
Could Reynolds be the answer to that question? Do the Broncos need to answer this question?
This is a wait-and-see situation in my eyes. I like Reynolds to fill that role, but with Denver yet to go on bye, you’d be adding Reynolds now to potentially cut him ahead of Week 14 without ever having played him.
I’ll be tracking all the needed rates, so check back weekly for an update, but at the moment, I’m leaving Reynolds on waiver wires.
Las Vegas Raiders Start-Sit Advice
Gardner Minshew II, QB
Gardner Minshew II has more games with zero touchdown passes than with multiple touchdown strikes, making him a tough sell against anyone, let alone the fourth-best yards-per-attempt pass defense in the sport.
There simply aren’t enough weapons on this Vegas roster to elevate the status of an ordinary QB, and that’s not going to change coming down the stretch of this season.
Alexander Mattison, RB
Updated at 1:45 PM ET on Friday, November 29
Mattison is inactive for today's game.
Alexander Mattison left Week 11’s loss to the Dolphins with an ankle injury, something that could end up saving you from yourself.
Since 2021, 52 running backs have at least 300 carries, and Mattison ranks 49th in boom/bust rate (the percentage difference in carries gaining at least 10 yards and that failed to gain yardage).
I’d argue that chasing the lead role in Vegas is a fool’s errand to begin with, and considering that we’ve already seen Mattison struggle in this spot (15 carries for 38 yards against Denver in Week 5), I’m not backing off of that now.
The Broncos allow the fourth-fewest yards per carry and touchdowns at the fifth-lowest rate to opposing backs. There is no clear path to Mattison mattering at full strength, let alone a compromised version of himself.
Jakobi Meyers, WR
Things are going sideways in Vegas, and Jakobi Meyers’ high-end volume is becoming less appealing by the week. This team hasn’t cleared 20 points in six of their past seven games, and if you want the granular breakdown, Meyers posted a ninth-percentile yards per route run last week.
That’s just not going to cut it.
Not all weeks are going to be that bad, but the fact that such a performance is within the range of outcomes is concerning. Meyers’ 8.7 targets per game over his last six still hold value, just not in the elevated floor way that we were hoping following the Davante Adams trade.
Meyers is a fringe top-30 receiver for me this week. He gave PPR managers 13.2 points in the Week 5 meeting with the Broncos, earning a 25% target share in a game that saw both Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O’Connell throw north of 15 passes.
Brock Bowers, TE
On Sunday, Brock Bowers recorded his second game with at least eight catches, 95 yards, and a touchdown. He joins Mike Ditka (1961) and Robert Awalt (1987) as the only rookie tight ends to have multiple such games.
The first such game this season? The Week 5 loss to these Broncos, a game in which Bowers saw one-third of the targets directed his way.
The Raiders are as limited as anyone on the offensive end, but at least they are self-aware about the situation. Jakobi Meyers led the team in rushing over the weekend while he and Bowers saw 56.4% of passes directed their way.
Gardner Minshew II is capable of identifying mismatches, something that we saw last week on Bowers’ 23-yard touchdown as the coverage was made obvious via motion. That’s enough to keep him as a Tier 1 option the rest of the way.
Do I expect Vegas to score a bunch of points? Of course not, but they are averaging just 18.7 points per game this season, and that hasn’t stopped Bowers from pacing for a rookie-record 119 receptions.