The Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 42) try to take another step towards another AFC West title, hosting the Denver Broncos.
Below is my final pick for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise. If you’re looking for other games, check out our final NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
Pick: Broncos +7.5
I know, I know. We just saw the Broncos’ feel-good story crash and burn on the road against a Super Bowl contender last weekend by way of a 41-10 loss to the Ravens in a game that might not have been even that close.
Rinse it off.
Asking the Chiefs to win by a margin is a lot, especially with this number pushing past a key number due to what Denver put on tape last week. Kansas City currently has its highest turnover rate (14.8% of possessions) and three-and-out rate (30.9%) during the Patrick Mahomes era, concerning trends to take into a game that, even with the poor Week 9, features the second-best yards per play defense (fourth-best in EPA) in the NFL.
The Chiefs are coming off their lowest pressure rate of the season, and if that proves sticky, I like our chances of getting the best version of Bo Nix.
- Weeks 1-4: 75.2 non-pressured passer rating
- Weeks 5-8: 110.3 non-pressured passer rating
Yes, I left out the Week 9 stinker from that sample, and if you want to buy into his struggles, go ahead. However, I do think we are seeing a little bit of an overreaction in terms of the spread. Last week was Denver’s first loss of the season by more than seven points, and I think they can keep this thing closer than the experts expect.
Mahomes is 1-4-2 ATS in his past seven when favored by more than six points.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs Game Stats and Insights
Denver Broncos
Team: No team has more time to pass, on average, than the Broncos this season (3.26 seconds, 14% longer than the league average).
QB: Bo Nix and Lamar Jackson are the only QBs in the league this season, with four games featuring 30 passes and 35 rushing yards.
Offense: The Broncos are one of five teams yet to connect on a 50-yard play this season (the others are the Browns, Titans, Giants, and Panthers).
Defense: The Broncos force a three-and-out on 37.9% of drives, the seventh-highest mark in the NFL this season.
Fantasy: The development of a rookie quarterback can serve as a rising tide – Courtland Sutton has posted two of his top-10 yards per route marks of his career over the past two weeks.
Betting: The Broncos are just 3-7 ATS (30%) in their past 10 road games within the division. On the bright side, their last game in Kansas City was one of those three covers (27-24 loss as a 12.5-point underdog).
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Since Andy Reid became their head coach in 2013, the Chiefs are 12-3 against rookie starting QBs. However, they lost their last game vs. Aidan O’Connell and the Las Vegas Raiders in 2023.
QB: Patrick Mahomes averaged a career-low 7.0 yards per pass last season — he’s failed to reach that number in three straight games.
Offense: Since 2020, the Chiefs are 14-8 (63.6%) when trailing entering the fourth quarter — the Steelers rank second in win percentage in such spots over that stretch at 34.1%.
Defense: In Week 7, Jordan Mason had a 26-yard rush against the Chiefs. They haven’t allowed a player to rush for more than 24 yards in a game since.
Fantasy: Patrick Mahomes hinted pregame that DeAndre Hopkins was going to be used more with time, and it didn’t take long – the former Titan accounted for one-third of his completions in the first half, tallying 66 yards and a touchdown in the process.
Betting: The Chiefs have covered three straight divisional games when playing on short rest (three of their past four such games have finished under the total).