Sam LaPorta’s 2023 NFL season notwithstanding, rookie tight ends rarely never good bets in fantasy football. But if anyone can defy the odds, it’s Las Vegas Raiders TE Brock Bowers. Considered one of the best TE prospects of all time, should fantasy managers be looking to draft Bowers this season?
Brock Bowers’ 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Fantasy managers can be a fickle bunch. The community as a whole has gotten so much smarter, but there still seems to be a weak spot when it comes to recency bias. The prevailing draft strategy for this year is generally what wound up working the previous year taken with the value of hindsight. This same thought process often applies to player evaluation too.
Historically, fantasy managers avoid rookie tight ends. Only a handful in NFL history have been relevant. Last year, though, we got not only a relevant rookie TE but the greatest rookie TE of all time.
LaPorta’s 14.1 fantasy points per game were good for an overall TE3 finish. He had the most total points at the position. Unsurprisingly, he was the first rookie TE to ever accomplish that.
While LaPorta was a very good prospect, he didn’t enter the NFL with nearly the same level of buzz as Bowers. The Raiders TE has been dubbed a generational talent and is one of the highest-drafted tight ends in NFL history.
The Raiders drafted Bowers one year after spending an early second-round pick on Michael Mayer, who was a pretty impressive prospect in his own right. Unfortunately, Mayer wasn’t able to make much of an impact as a rookie.
Overall, the Raiders’ QBs targeted their top two tight ends, Mayer and Austin Hooper, just 12.7% of the time. With the combination of Davante Adams soaking up around 30% of the targets and Jakobi Meyers being a rock-solid WR2, it’s far from a guarantee that Bowers can push a 20% target share.
Furthermore, the Raiders’ QB situation isn’t exactly the best. Gardner Minshew II is a clear upgrade over Aidan O’Connell, but he’s never been a prolific passer nor has he ever consistently excelled as a starter. He seems to be the type of quarterback who works when he is thrust into action to replace an injured starter but can’t quite get it done when he’s the main guy going into the season.
Last season, Minshew was not able to support a single fantasy-relevant pass-catcher beyond Michael Pittman Jr.; Josh Downs had his moments but fell short of being a reliable weekly starter.
We can safely pencil in Adams to be at least a high-end WR2 in fantasy. Even if Meyers is no better than Downs was last season, asking Minshew to sustain another high-level fantasy option is a lot.
The good news is fantasy managers aren’t being overly unrealistic on Bowers. No one is expecting him to even be LaPorta Lite. Bowers’ ADP is the TE11, No. 99 overall. I have him ranked as my TE11 as well.
I don’t have a particularly strong take on Bowers for fantasy this season. I do believe he is as talented as everyone says he is. In a better situation, a LaPorta-esque rookie season would be in his range of outcomes. If you want to bet on talent, I won’t get in your way.
With that said, though, I’m not overly excited to draft the third option in the Raiders’ passing game, especially since I expect this team to lean run-heavy. If Bowers is the top TE available and no one else stands out, I’ll draft him, but he’s not a priority target for me this season.
