Brian Robinson Jr.’s Fantasy Outlook: An Overlooked RB2 in 2024?

The production we saw from Brian Robinson Jr. in his first full as the Washington Commanders‘ leading ball carrier was actually rather encouraging, considering the state of the team’s offensive line and quarterback situation last year. Yet, Robinson still feels like a bit of an afterthought in the fantasy realm approaching his third season in the league.

What can fantasy football managers expect from Robinson in 2024 with the multitude of changes made to the coaching staff and roster this offseason?

Brian Robinson Jr.’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast

Let’s start with the positives, shall we?

Robinson’s RB21 overall finish with 1,101 total yards and nine TDs certainly shouldn’t be viewed as a negative. He managed to relegate Antonio Gibson to nothing more than a complementary option in this offense and score eight touchdowns through the first 10 games of the season.

Considering no team threw the ball more than the Commanders in 2023, his leading role on the ground and 36 receptions for 368 yards in the passing game suggested he can be a three-down feature back in the NFL.

On the flip side, only Robinson and Alvin Kamara finished as RB2 last year without a 100-yard rushing performance on the season. Robinson’s efficiency and usage improved across the board last year; however, it doesn’t exactly suggest he is dominant force as a runner who has unquestioned job security with a completely new coaching regime in town this upcoming season.

Could some of his lack of great rushing performances have to do with the play-calling and struggles along the offensive line last year? Certainly, former offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy wasn’t exactly committed to running the football in 2023. Robinson’s 2.4 yards before contact per attempt is lumped in with names like Kamara, Breece Hall, and Rachaad White — players who operated behind struggling offensive lines last year.

These factors, when combined with him losing some work to Gibson, certainly played a role in limiting Robinson’s fantasy ceiling in 2023.

Now it’s time to look forward to 2024. There is a new head coach (Dan Quinn), new offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury), new quarterback (Jayden Daniels), and new running back (Austin Ekeler) in town this season, completely changing the look of this entire offensive unit.

Say what you want about Ekeler’s disappointing fantasy season in 2023, but he is just one season removed from an RB1 overall finish. Additionally, he was dealing with an ankle injury through the earlier portions of the season prior to Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen both suffering injuries during the latter portion of the campaign — all of which made the Los Angeles Chargers offense very tough to watch over the final month of the season.

Could Ekeler be washed? Sure, it’s definitely possible Father Time has come to collect rent. Yet, projecting a breakout season for Robinson by assuming Ekeler won’t be involved in this offense feels a bit premature. At the very least, Ekeler could factor in on passing downs. The former Charger has caught 50+ passes in five straight seasons.

Not to mention, Robinson could lose some touchdown rushing production in the red zone to either Ekeler or Daniels — the latter an incredibly dynamic ball carrier in his own right.

Robinson’s ADP of No. 92 overall as the RB32 off the board actually feels a bit disrespectful given the success we saw from him last year. There is definitely a case to be made that this offense could be much better than people expect with the vast amount of additions and potential improvements made this offseason.

Ekeler is truly the wild card here. If he isn’t washed like many are assuming, then Robinson’s current fantasy price is appropriate. Yet, if he is slated to be the leading ball carrier with Ekeler factoring in on passing downs, Robinson actually feels like a quality buy at this draft-day price who could produce RB2 production in an improved offense.