With the Washington Commanders sporting a new head coach (Dan Quinn), new offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) and new quarterback (rookie Jayden Daniels), there should be optimism for this season to be the best of running back Brian Robinson Jr.’s career.
But while he may remain Washington’s No.1 choice when it comes to carries, could the offseason addition of former Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler turn out to be a problem for Robinson’s fantasy value?
Here’s a look at the fantasy football outlook for Brian Robinson Jr. this season.
Brian Robinson Jr.’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Although he actually rushed for fewer yards last season (733) than in his rookie season of 2022 (797), Robinson was still a much more productive running back for the Commanders in 2023.
Robinson proved to be a legitimate threat as a pass catcher out of the backfield, finishing with 368 receiving yards on 36 receptions last season, a significant increase from his rookie season (nine receptions, 60 yards). His 10.2 yards per catch was the highest of any running back last season who had at least 30 total receptions.
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Robinson’s total touches in 15 games last season (214) were exactly the same as in his 12-game rookie season. However, he averaged 5.1 yards per touch last season, a big improvement from the 2022 season (4.0 yards per touch).
But as a runner, Robinson’s workload was actually less than that of his rookie season. Despite playing in three more games last season than in his rookie campaign, Robinson had 27 fewer rush attempts (178) than in 2022 (205).
The Commanders’ inability to give Robinson more carries was quite confusing, considering Robinson had 18 or more carries in three of Washington’s four wins last season.
Is Brian Robinson Jr. a Good Fantasy Pick?
Although he has been productive as a runner and receiver and is the starting running back in Washington, Robinson checks in at RB28 in Pro Football Network’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings as of Aug. 13.
With a new offensive coordinator, as well as a likely rookie starting quarterback in Daniels, it would seem as if everything is in place for Robinson to provide a lot of security for the offense via an increase in both rushing and receiving opportunities out of the backfield.
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But the addition of Ekeler could be potentially damaging for those who were hoping to capitalize on Robinson’s potential in the new offense, considering how accomplished a receiver the veteran offseason addition is.
Just two seasons ago with the Chargers, Ekeler had 107 receptions on 127 targets. Last season, Ekeler’s receptions plummeted to just 51, his fewest since the 2018 season.
While Robinson is still projected to serve as the Commanders’ No. 1 running back, the presence of Ekeler will not help fantasy managers looking for value with Robinson.
Robinson will probably see his rush attempts increase this season, but with Ekeler around, expect his pass-catching opportunities to see a drop.
At this point, deploying a fantasy draft strategy of using a mid-round pick on Robinson would seem like a major gamble. Consider Robinson a late-round pick in fantasy drafts.