One of the top young players in the NFL and fantasy football, New York Jets RB Breece Hall projects to be an early pick in his 2022 fantasy outlook. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Hall’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Breece Hall’s fantasy outlook for 2022
It feels like there is a rush to draft the incoming rookie running backs every year. They dominated in college and usually come into fantastic situations, and every year, one or two of them pop and become weekly must-starts. Fantasy managers are hoping that will be Hall in 2022.
Hall was viewed as the RB1 of the 2022 NFL Draft class for roughly the last two years. After a 1,149-total-yardage season as a true freshman with 10 touchdowns, Hall recorded back-to-back campaigns of 1,750+ yards with 23 touchdowns in each of 2020 and 2021. Averaging 2.09 yards per team play and 5.7 yards per attempt in his last two seasons, Hall checks virtually every box from an analytics standpoint.
He set an FBS record with a touchdown in 24 straight games and was fourth in the nation in all-purpose yards at 147.2 per game. Hall then went on to run a 4.39 40-yard dash and posted a class-best 40″ vertical and 126″ broad jump.
Still just 20 years old, Hall possesses prototypical size at 6’1″ and 215 pounds. Hall also ticks the receiving box, which has become almost a must for an elite fantasy option. Over the last two years, Hall had 59 catches (66 targets) for 491 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Hall was the No. 1 running back selected during the draft
Despite the “running backs don’t matter” narrative, the Jets invested in the position, selecting Hall with the No. 36 pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. They are an improving team and just crushed the draft. They weren’t even a team many had pegged to draft a running back. Yet the pick of Hall could be extremely telling in how the Jets want to look in 2022.
Despite thinking the Jets under Robert Saleh would want to run the ball, they did the opposite last season. They were 27th in both rushing yards per game and overall rushing yards and dead last in rushing attempts. The Jets can’t just out-throw teams.
Even if Zach Wilson can take a step forward in 2022, they must run the ball more efficiently. How do you beat or compete with the Bills? By keeping Josh Allen on the sidelines. New England? Run and keep Mac Jones sitting on the bench. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa? Run. The. Ball.
Joe Douglas struck gold in Michael Carter last season, but is he the type who can handle the workload and wear down a defense? That is up for debate. Hall can do that. I do expect to see this backfield implement a committee approach, specifically on passing downs, but Hall should lead in both touches and opportunities.
Unlike rookies in recent years, Hall is not an RB1 for fantasy. This is strictly due to situation, not talent. Currently, Hall is projected as more of a lower-end RB2. He’ll be a weekly starter, but Carter will cut into his upside, as will a reduced number of high-leverage red-zone carries due to the current state of the offense. But a 225+ touch season with around 1,000 total yards is entirely in play for Hall.
How the Jets’ depth chart impacts Breece Hall’s fantasy projection for the season
As a franchise, I think the Jets are moving in the right direction. They have a coach and GM with a clear and direct vision, a young QB with upside, and they made upgrades all over their roster, including three players who were No. 1 at their respective positions in the NFL draft.
Laken Tomlinson, signed in free agency, will solidify the guard position up front. D.J. Reed will take a starting spot at corner alongside rookie Ahmad Gardner. C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin, and rookie Jeremy Ruckert have completely remade the tight end room.
Not to mention, New York added Ohio State standout Garrett Wilson to pair with Elijah Moore at wide receiver. Throw in Corey Davis, and the Jets could be a tough out anytime they play, barring injuries.
The Jets look to be a two-back team in 2022, simplifying the decision for fantasy
As far as the backfield is concerned, I don’t think this is as complicated as some are making it out to be. I would have loved to have seen Carter get a full 17-game season as the RB1. He had 639 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns on 147 attempts as a rookie, adding 36 receptions on 55 targets for 325 yards.
He could bring the pop and get yards after contact or be elusive out of the backfield. Heck, he was the only RB who really had success against Tampa Bay last year until an injury took him out of the game.
Outside of Carter, the other running backs don’t worry me at all. Tevin Coleman was cut, and Ty Johnson only made an impact as a receiver, matching Carter with 55 targets. I just don’t foresee them being significant players in 2022.
For me, this is a two-RB backfield. Hall is the power and some receiving work while Cater moves to a more satellite role, recording some carries but making his impact in the passing game. If the theory of the philosophy change is accurate, there is more than enough to go around. If not, that impacts Carter more than Hall. As far as committees go, this is as clear of a “committee” as you could ask for fantasy.
Hall’s ADP for 2022
Everyone wants to draft the hot new rookie RB and 2022 is no different. At the moment, Hall carries an ADP of 52 in PPR formats as the RB24 off the board. I have to admit this surprised me a bit as I expected it to be a bit higher.
That optimism shows up in PFNs Fantasy Football Rankings, which has Hall the RB18 with an ADP of 36, moving him from the fifth to the third round. This tracks with where the former Iowa State RB is in mine as the RB18 as well.
While the Jets are unlikely to be good, they will run the ball. Volume shouldn’t be an issue for Hall as he encroaches on 250 opportunities. However, there is always the question of how much impact Carter will have on his upside. After the year he had, the Jets will not hand over the entire role to Hall.
There should be room for both to be viable, but an injury to either will make the other skyrocket in weekly value, likely into the upper RB2 territory. Hall has been the RB1 of this class for years. He should have instant success making the transition to the NFL.
