Stats That Matter: Breaking down the young QBs, from Drew Lock to Tua Tagovailoa

Drew Lock may be helping the Denver Broncos win games, but he’s struggling as a passer. Kliff Kingsbury’s Arizona Cardinals system may both help and hurt Kyler Murray. Justin Herbert should not be blamed for the Los Angeles Chargers’ weekly late-game collapses. And despite helping the Miami Dolphins upset the Los Angeles Rams in his debut, Tua Tagovailoa has a lot more to prove. This edition of Stats That Matter sifts through the splits and grinds a little tape to give you the inside scoop on where the NFL’s young starting quarterbacks (rookies and sophomores) stand at this point in their development. We will look at the NFL QBs from both the 2019 and 2020 draft classes.

Starting with the 2019 NFL QBs draft class | Drew Lock, Denver Broncos

Drew Lock is a tricky evaluation at this point in his career. He missed two games this season with a shoulder injury. He has been without top wide receiver Courtland Sutton for all of 2020, and running backs Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay have only been healthy at the same time for the last two games. And Broncos head coach Vic Fangio and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur both prefer conservative game plans that are not designed to showcase the quarterback.

Lock complicated matters by putting up awful stats (10-of-24, 189 yards, zero TDs, two interceptions) in the Broncos victory over the New England Patriots while playing better than the numbers indicate: His receivers dropped a handful of potential big-play passes. Lock then put up solid stats (26-of-41, 238, three TDs, one interception) in the Broncos victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, but he did not play as well as the numbers indicate: He could barely move the Broncos offense for the first three quarters. Those games make it easy to cherry-pick “overrated” or “underrated,” depending on which argument you choose to make.

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Drew Lock ranks 27th out of all NFL QBs in both Football Outsiders’ DYAR and DVOA metrics, so we’re unlikely to find any great news among his stat splits. But Lock’s third-down passing stats are particularly troubling, especially when third-and-short throws are scrubbed out. On third down and four-plus yards to go, Lock is 18-of-37 for 261 yards, zero TDs, two interceptions, and just nine first downs, per Sports Info Solutions. Drew Lock’s efficiency rating of 49.5 in these situations is the fifth-worst out of all NFL QBs, down among a group that includes Cam Newton, Sam Darnold, Mitch Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins, and someone else we will get to in a moment.

The Broncos are 6-4 when Lock starts, and he may be demonstrating a knack for manufacturing wins. Coming back from an injury to grind out a win against the Patriots (even in their current state) isn’t easy, nor is leading a 17-point second-half comeback against any opponent. But Drew Lock still hasn’t produced a top-to-bottom spectacular game unless you give lots of extra credit for last year’s win over the Houston Texans (you shouldn’t). At some point, benefit of the doubt about the system and supporting cast, as well as game-management kudos for narrow wins, starts to ring hollow.

Lock earned some “Patrick Mahomes Lite” comparisons when he was drafted. So far, he looks more like Mitch Trubisky at the start of his career. It’s too early to bury him the way some national sports personalities did this week, and a pair of games against the Atlanta Falcons and Las Vegas Raiders defenses may make Drew Lock look better in a few weeks. But the clock is ticking for his “breakout” performance to arrive.

2019 QB draft class | Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

We mentioned in the last segment that Drew Lock was one of the least-efficient third down passers in the NFL. It turns out that Kyler Murray ranks dead last out of all NFL QBs in third-down passing when there are four-plus yards to go: 22-of-45 passing, 226 yards, one TD, four interceptions, and a miserable 34.1 efficiency rating. Murray adds rushing value in those situations (four first downs), but it’s not enough to overcome lots of incomplete passes and too many turnovers.

Like Drew Lock, Murray is a tricky eval, though in an entirely different way: He’s hard to separate from Kingsbury’s far-out offense, and it’s easy to get dazzled by his highlights (and the Cardinals’ 5-2 record) and overlook lots of misfires on routine passes.

Murray has thrown 63 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage this season; only Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers have attempted more screens, dump-offs, and the like. Murray’s completion rate on these passes is a surprisingly low 60.3%, and he averages a woeful 2.8 yards per attempt on these passes (Mahomes, by contrast, averages 5.1 yards per screen-type pass).

Murray is sometimes off-target on easy throws — inconsistent mechanics appear to be a problem — but a bigger issue is that opponents see DeAndre Hopkins lined up in a triple-stack formation and automatically move in to blow up the screen. The results are a lot of empty-calorie completions on Murray’s resume, many of which are not his fault.

Murray’s rushing splits also deserve a closer look. Murray has rushed 24 times (third to Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton) for 171 yards and 7.1 yards per carry on designed options, draws, and sneaks. But he is also the NFL’s most dangerous scrambler right now: 22 carries for a league-high 224 yards. The scrambling production is excellent, but some of those scrambles must be converted into completed passes as Murray develops. Right now, it’s hard to tell if he’s scrambling so much because of wide-open rushing lanes, flaws in Kingsbury’s system, or missed reads. It’s probably a mix of all three.

Murray has not taken a Mahomes/Jackson leap forward in his second season. That said, his explosive dual-threat capability helped spur big wins against the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. Murray is trending in the right direction, but there is lots of work still to be done.

2019 QB draft class | Daniel Jones, New York Giants

Everything comes down to negative plays for Jones: Nine interceptions, 23 sacks, and four lost fumbles out of five total fumbles so far in 2020. No quarterback will last long in the NFL committing two turnovers per game, no matter how bad his supporting cast.

If Jones can cut down on the sacks and turnovers, his deep passing ability could help him turn the corner. On passes of 15-plus air yards, Jones is 23-of-35 for 549 yards, four TDs, zero interceptions, and a league-best (albeit with a small sample size) 147.0 efficiency rating. And he’s doing it behind a makeshift offensive line, with Darius Slayton as his only dependable downfield target.

If the Giants rebuild their line (which would likely help slash his turnover rate), Jones could enjoy a Josh Allen-type bump over the next 12 months as a deep passer with mobility. He also appears to know what he’s doing when making adjustments at the line, which is a huge plus. From a quarterback development standpoint, it’s better to see someone like Jones or (as a better example) Murray mix big plays with mistakes than just try to muddle through like Lock, because the big plays are a sign of high upside. 

That said, the Giants are unlikely to fix their line anytime soon, which means the turnovers and losses are likely to keep piling up. 

2019 QB draft class | Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Minshew was never nearly as good as MinshewMania made him out to be, but he will prove to be far better than Jake Luton, the methodical, barely-mobile sixth-round rookie who will start for the Jaguars while Minshew recovers from a broken hand.

Minshew is destined for a career like other NFL QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jon Kitna, a quality backup for hire. He has the Fitzpatrick skill set: An ability to improvise on the run, a knack for carving up weaker defenses and soft coverage, solid preparation chops, and a gift for charming the media. His absence will cost the Jaguars a winnable game or two, like Sunday’s matchup with the Houston Texans. That’s a barely-disguised blessing because it will put the Jaguars in position to draft a quarterback of the future while ensuring that Minshew doesn’t lull them into thinking he’s the long-term answer.

2019 QB draft class | Dwayne Haskins, Washington Football Team

The best comparison for Dwayne Haskins right now is Josh Rosen. The circumstances surrounding Haskins’ benching and the lack of interest at the trade deadline suggest that he’s destined to be a salvage-program prospect whose next opportunity probably won’t be a very good one.

Continue for an in-depth look at the 2020 NFL QBs draft class.