The Buffalo Bills will travel to take on the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10. Here’s our early pick and prediction for this AFC matchup, with insights from our PR+ metric, which has guided us to a 16-9 record on plays over the last three weeks.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Nov. 3, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Buffalo Bills (-5, 47) at Indianapolis Colts
The Buffalo Bills just snuck past the Miami Dolphins in Week 9, and their frailties against competitive teams showed up once again. Our PR+ metric suggests that Miami is worse than the Indianapolis Colts, but the Tua Tagovailoa version of the Dolphins is a better team than the Colts. Thus, the Bills should be able to get back to winning comfortably as they flex their muscles of a fifth-ranked offense.
The Colts put up a good fight against the Vikings, but if Minnesota’s offense had been even half-competent, that game could easily have been a blowout. Indianapolis ranks outside the top 20 on both offense and defense, but the Colts have played the eighth-hardest schedule to this point, which makes them a wild card going forward.
Assuming they don’t shoot themselves in the foot, the Bills should be too much for the Colts in this matchup. They have an edge on both sides of the ball; even being on the road shouldn’t be enough to level the playing field.
Prediction: Bills 27, Colts 17
Pick: Bills -5
Bills at Colts Game Stats and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: Buffalo is seeking a fifth straight win – they haven’t had a five-game win streak in the first 10 weeks of a season during the 2000s.
QB: In eight games this season, Josh Allen has been held without a deep touchdown pass seven times (on Sunday against the Dolphins, he attempted just three deep passes (five games prior: 8.6 deep pass attempts per game).
Offense: The Bills are turning the ball over just 0.44 times per game, the second-fewest in the NFL and down from 1.65 times per game a season ago.
Defense: Dink-and-dunk: opponents average a league-low 6.2 air yards per throw against Buffalo this season.
Fantasy: James Cook opened the season with a pair of games over 70 rushing yards – he’s reached 45 rushing yards in just two of six games since. He saved your day with a season-high five receptions against the Dolphins on Sunday, but that’s a dangerous way to live.
Betting: Under tickets have come through in five of Buffalo’s past six road games, but don’t mistake that for sportsbooks struggling to handicap this team – all of those games finished within three points of the closing total.
Indianapolis Colts
Team: Indianapolis’s offense has only been on the field for 25:41 per game this season, which is 100 seconds less per game than any other offense in the league.
QB: Over the past four weeks, Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson have made two starts apiece.
- Flacco: 5.7 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
- Richardson: 5.4 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
Offense: The Colts rank 30th in offensive success rate (ahead of only the Chargers and Browns).
Defense: After a brutal start to the season, the Colts own the second-best rush defense by EPA (first: Chargers).
Fantasy: Josh Downs has a 36.5% on-field target share from Joe Flacco this season (Michael Pittman: 19%, Alec Pierce: 10.3%).
Betting: The Colts are 4-0 ATS at home this season (they haven’t had a winning ATS season in front of their home fans since 2017).