Tonight, the Buffalo Bills will host the San Francisco 49ers at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. But with a lake-effect storm advisory in place, is there a possibility that this game will be postponed? Here’s the latest from meteorologists and city officials.
Bills–49ers Isn’t Expected To Be Postponed
According to the National Weather Service, lake-effect snow occurs when cold air moves over warm lake water. The heat and moisture cause clouds to form and grow bigger, resulting in heavy snow bands downwind of the lake.
Local reports indicate that Orchard Park could get one to two feet of snow by kickoff, but will this impact tonight’s game?
“This is going to be concerning for people trying to travel to the football game, [but] we do not expect the game to be postponed or anything like that. The game will go on,” Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said, according to the Associated Press.
“Now, we’ve had games that are colder than that. Just got to dress appropriately. So people need to be prepared. It’s the first real cold of the season. We haven’t had anything like this all year.”
Patrick Hammer, the chief meteorologist for WGRZ-TV in Buffalo, said that he expects the snow to drift south this morning, adding that it should clear the stadium by the afternoon. He expects the Bills game to be “cold with a chance of a burst of snow during the game.”
Kevin Roth, a RotoGrinders meteorologist who focuses on how weather will impact fantasy sports and sports betting, agreed with Hammer’s assessment.
🏈❄️ This forecast from a local Met in Buffalo matches up with my thoughts…
Significant snow tonight, but main snow band is south of Highmark by gametime.
I won’t rule out snow showers, but as of now I don’t think the snow plays a major role, winds are breezy but manageable. https://t.co/0l8DiJ7gl3
— Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx)
Roth believes that there will be “significant snow tonight” but that the main snow band will be south of Highmark Stadium by game time.
“I won’t rule out snow showers, but as of now I don’t think the snow plays a major role,” Roth tweeted, adding that the winds should be “breezy but manageable.”
Previewing the Bills-49ers Game
While both teams entered this season with Super Bowl aspirations, the 49ers’ hopes have quickly dwindled. PFN’s Playoff Projections currently give them a 20% chance of making the playoffs, a 9.5% chance to win the division, and only a 1.5% chance to win the Super Bowl.
In addition to disappointing play, this is largely due to the usual rash of injuries that San Francisco faces seemingly every season. The injury list could very easily be mistaken for a Pro Bowl roster with players like Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Hargrave, Talanoa Hufanga, and Deommodore Lenoir all unavailable for this Sunday night matchup.
Among these players alone, that is 5,471 total snaps from the 2023 season missing. The absence of these stars significantly impacts San Francisco’s offensive and defensive performance alarmingly. This doesn’t even factor in prior injuries to Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, George Kittle, etc.
Offensively, the 49ers rank 11th in EPA (expected points added) per game. Without Williams, the offense drops to 16th in EPA, per TruMedia. The effectiveness of a team predictably drops when a top-five NFL offensive tackle isn’t playing.
Defensively, the 49ers also take a major hit without their stud pass rusher. With Bosa on the field, their defense ranks 16th in EPA, ninth in pressure rate, and 19th in quick pressure rate (quicker than 2.5 seconds). Without him, they rank 30th, 30th, and 23rd, respectively, in those categories.
Against an offense that thrives under pressure like Buffalo (fourth in EPA under pressure), Bosa’s absence (among others) could be dangerous for San Francisco’s playoff hopes.
Buffalo enters this matchup in a much healthier and impressive state. The offense as a whole ranks fourth in EPA per game, and Josh Allen himself ranks second in EPA per play among quarterbacks with over 110 attempts.
Arguably, one of Allen’s best traits is sack avoidance. Despite an offensive line ranking 14th in pressures allowed and his time to throw ranking 17th, the Bills have the lowest sack percentage in the NFL.
MORE: 5 Coldest Games in NFL History
On the defensive side, the Bills don’t boast elite metrics across the board, but they do have certain players that can wreck a game. This is especially pertinent in a matchup where Williams is out, and the rest of the 49ers’ offensive line hasn’t played very well.
Ben Baldwin used PFF to evaluate offensive lines in true pass-set situations. The Niner guards rank 14th and the center dead last in these situations.
Pass block grades of offensive linemen in true pass sets only
This is a Drake Maye tweet pic.twitter.com/JdHiyZsY7a
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 19, 2024
While Buffalo only ranks 23rd and 14th in pressure and quick pressure rate, respectively, its defensive line features three players at the top of the league in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate (Greg Rousseau ranks 13th among edge defenders).
Even worse, San Francisco’s interior offensive line will have to go against DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver, who rank 17th and 18th, respectively, among defensive tackles in pass-rush win rate.
Overall, Allen is playing like an MVP, and the Bills have a key matchup advantage against a depleted 49ers roster.
