There’s a lot of overlap between fantasy football and NFL betting. In no area is this more prominent than in NFL prop bets. With thousands of player props on the board every week, the lines aren’t as sharp as sides and totals. This is how we take advantage. Here are my top NFL player props for the Sunday slate of games in Week 16.
Top NFL Player Bets To Bet Today
All prop bets are one unit unless otherwise specified. One unit means to win if the odds are considered a favorite (ex: -110, -150, etc.) and to risk if the odds are considered an underdog (ex: +110, +150, etc.). For example, if your unit is $100, a one-unit bet at -120 would be $120 to win $100. A one-unit bet at +120 would be $100 to win $120.
It’s also important to remember that lines are constantly shifting due to action and the latest news. I will always be transparent about three aspects of each pick: what line I bet it at, the line at the time I wrote this, and at what price I’d no longer be interested.
Last week’s plays (including the PFN Discord plays) went 14-7, winning 3.64 units. We are now 149-109, +32.06 units on the season. I didn’t end up playing anything on Thursday night. Although, I should’ve, given that all three of my leans won. I just wasn’t confident enough. So, we’re starting fresh on Saturday.
To get my weekly NFL prop bets as soon as I place my bets, you can find them in the betting channel on the official PFN Discord or by following me on Pikkit @KatzFF.
Taylor Heinicke Over 200.5 Passing Yards +102 (Caesars)
In eight starts this season, Taylor Heinicke has gone over 200 passing yards in five of them. Of course, two of them (his two most recent ones) were against the Giants.
While the 49ers are a much better defense than the Giants, the Commanders should have no choice but to lean pass in this one. The 49ers have an elite run defense — the best in the league. Although their pass defense is also good, it’s not as good as the run defense. Heinicke should hit this number on volume.
- My line
200.5 +102 (Caesars) - Current line
189.5 +102 (Caesars) - Highest I’d go
N/A — I clearly should’ve waited to bet this.
George Kittle Under 44.5 Receiving Yards -115 (BetMGM)
On the other side of the same game, we’re back to fading George Kittle. Fight back against recency bias. Kittle isn’t actually a productive tight end from a receiving standpoint.
Kittle has smashed in two games against the Cardinals and Seahawks — two of the worst defenses against the tight end. In the other five of his last seven games, he’s recorded under 40 receiving yards.
The Commanders allow 14.1% of their total receiving yards against the tight end position. It’s the lowest rate in the league. Kittle should go right back to his usual blocking ways this week.
- My line
44.5 -115 (BetMGM) - Current line
44.5 -118 (Caesars) - Lowest I’d go
42.5
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +112 (BetRivers)
I have a rule when it comes to Derrick Henry’s anytime touchdown prop. If you give it to me anywhere near even money or better, I will take it every time. I am now applying that same rule to Josh Allen’s touchdowns prop.
Last week, we got this line gifted to us at -105. This week, it’s even better at +112 (at least as of the time I bet it).
I understand the concerns with the weather this week across the NFL. But are we expecting the Bills just not to score? They are still a good bet for three touchdowns. As a pass-first offense, the touchdowns are more likely to be through the air than on the ground.
Allen has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of his last four. While the Bears only allow 1.1 passing touchdowns per game, they haven’t faced a quarterback anywhere near as prolific as Allen. This one hits more than it doesn’t.
- My line
1.5 +112 (BetRivers) - Current line
1.5 +110 (BetMGM) - Highest price I’d pay
As the rule states, anywhere around even money.
Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 Interceptions -125 (DraftKings)
There’s no denying Patrick Mahomes has been a bit more reckless with the ball over the past two seasons. After throwing 11 interceptions total in 2019 and 2020, Mahomes threw 13 in 2021 and has 11 already this season.
Mahomes didn’t throw a pick last week, and most of his interceptions have come against defenses you would reasonably expect to force more turnovers.
The Seahawks have failed to record an interception in six games this season. They haven’t faced a quarterback nearly as good as Mahomes. I think he protects the ball in this one.
- My line
-125 (DraftKings) - Current line
Same - Highest price I’d pay
-130
Geno Smith Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +110 (PointsBet)
This line confuses me. I feel like I’m being suckered, but I just can’t resist.
Geno Smith has thrown at least two touchdowns in all but three games this season. The Chiefs have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league — an average of 2.1 per game. What am I missing here?
This could be the highest-scoring game of the weekend. The Chiefs should be able to score, forcing the Seahawks to throw. Potentially without Kenneth Walker III, Seattle might have to lean on Smith even more. I’m pretty confident Smith throws at least two.
- My line
1.5 +110 (PointsBet) - Current line
1.5 +110 (BetMGM) - Highest price I’d pay
-110
Gardner Minshew Over 0.5 Interceptions -110 (DraftKings)
I don’t have much data to work on here. Gardner Minshew is making his first start of the season, having had very few reps with the first-team offense.
His matchup is a Cowboys defense that has intercepted the opposing quarterback in three consecutive games. The Cowboys are home favorites and likely motivated following two poor defensive efforts against the Jaguars and Texans. At basically coin-flip odds, the gunslinging Minshew is more likely to throw it to Dallas than not.
- My line
-110 (DraftKings) - Current line
Same - Highest price I’d pay
-120
Gardner Minshew Over 11.5 Rushing Yards -115 (DraftKings)
Piggybacking off the previous prop, with the Cowboys likely leading and the Eagles in a negative game script, Minshew should drop back plenty of times. Given his lack of prep time, he may be more apt to take off and run rather than go through his progression.
Throughout his career, Minshew has averaged 17.2 rushing yards per game. He only needs 12.
- My line
11.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Current line
Same - Highest I’d go
13.5
D’Onta Foreman Under 53.5 Rushing Yards -114 (BetRivers) 2 units
I was really tempted to make this a three-unit play, but I’m a little rattled from losing Stefon Diggs’ receptions over last week on a stat correction. I just hate when one bet dictates how the entire card will perform. With that said, this is my top play of the week.
I was shocked to see D’Onta Foreman’s rushing line set this high. I thought it would be in the low 40s.
Last week, Foreman ran the ball 10 times for nine yards. More importantly, he played just 30% of the snaps. The Panthers seem to be shifting more toward Chuba Hubbard as their RB1.
As if that isn’t reason enough, the Lions are quietly erasing opposing running backs. What was once a terrible run defense is now one of the best. Since Week 8, the Lions are allowing just 62 rushing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the league.
Foreman is mired in a three-man timeshare, losing his grip on the backfield, and facing an elite run-stopping unit. I don’t think he comes close to this number.
- My line
53.5 -114 (BetRivers) - Current line
55.5 -120 (PointsBet) - Lowest I’d go
45.5
D.J. Chark Over 32.5 Receiving Yards -117 (BetRivers)
This line is obscenely low for a WR2 on a pass-first offense. In games where he plays a full complement of snaps, D.J. Chark averages over 30 routes run per game.
Last week, Chark caught just one of two targets for 18 yards. He was also facing the Jets and getting smothered in Sauce…the Gardner kind.
The previous two weeks, Chark totaled 94 and 98 receiving yards. Now, you’re telling me he just needs to get to 33? Yes, please.
The Panthers allow 158.3 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, the 11th-most in the league. They are worse against outside receivers than the slot. Chark lines up primarily outside.
If Jaycee Horn chases Amon-Ra St. Brown inside, Jared Goff could look Chark’s way 6+ times. That would be plenty good to put him over this line.
- My line
32.5 -117 (BetRivers) - Current line
Same - Highest I’d go
35.5
Kareem Hunt Under 40.5 Rush + Receiving Yards -115 (DraftKings)
Admittedly, it was a bit risky to bet this when I did with Nick Chubb’s status uncertain. However, Chubb is expected to play, and I think he will be a full go. That leaves Kareem Hunt in his usual seldom-used backup role.
Hunt played just 26% of the snaps last week against the Ravens. He touched the ball five times and amassed 27 total yards. Hunt hasn’t come close to 40 yards in four of his last six games.
The Saints are a favorable matchup, but that will benefit Chubb more than Hunt. The only way I see Hunt getting there is through the air, and the Saints surrender just 12.7% of their total receiving yards allowed to running backs.
- My line
40.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Current line
42.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Lowest I’d go
38.5
Isaiah Hodgins Over 33.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)
Over the past three weeks, Isaiah Hodgins has been an 85% snap share player. He’s the clear WR2 behind Darius Slayton and ahead of Richie James. His lowest receiving yardage total over that span is 37.
The Vikings allow 200.5 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Only the Lions are worse at defending the pass.
This is one of the few games being played in ideal conditions inside a dome. It has one of the highest projected totals of the weekend. Daniel Jones should be throwing plenty, as that is how you beat the Vikings. Hodgins doesn’t need much to get there.
- My line
33.5 -114 (FanDuel) - Current line
Same - Highest I’d go
35.5
Davante Adams Over 69.5 Receiving Yards -110 (BetMGM)
Last week, I expected a bounce-back game from a floundering CeeDee Lamb. This week, that guy is Davante Adams.
The Raiders’ WR1 has caught a total of just seven passes over his past two games. Last week, he had 28 yards on four receptions. I just can’t fathom the Raiders aren’t looking at the game film and figuring out how to get the ball to Adams more.
The Steelers allow the fifth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. A whopping 69.5% of their total receiving yards allowed goes to the position. Adams is going over 100 this week.
- My line
69.5 -110 (BetMGM) - Current line
Same - Highest I’d go
72.5
Tyler Huntley Under 170.5 Passing Yards -115 (DraftKings)
I hope the football world is done with the notion that the Ravens would be better off with Tyler Huntley. Lamar Jackson has more talent in his lefty pinky toe than Huntley has in his entire existence.
Over the past two weeks, Huntley has thrown for 138 yards and 88 yards. The only reason Huntley even got to 138 last week against the Browns is because the Ravens abandoned the run in the second half.
I’m certainly not ruling out a negative game script occurring this week, but as touchdown home favorites over the Falcons with a rookie quarterback, I don’t foresee the Ravens trailing by multiple scores.
The Falcons are a great matchup for Huntley, but I just don’t think the Ravens want him to throw at all, if possible. As long as they maintain a lead or keep it close, they will run, run, and run some more. Huntley may not attempt 20 passes.
- My line
170.5 -115 (DraftKings) - Current line
170.5 -115 (BetMGM) - Lowest I’d go
165.5
Cordarrelle Patterson Under 57.5 Rush + Receiving Yards -115 (BetMGM)
The theory behind this prop is similar to the Foreman one above. I think we’re seeing a shift in how a team is operating before the lines have fully adjusted.
Last week, Tyler Allgeier outcarried Cordarrelle Patterson for the first time all season. He ripped off 139 yards on 17 carries. Patterson had just 52 yards on 14 carries.
The Falcons have no real allegiance to any particular back. If Allgeier continues to run well, he will continue to get more work.
Patterson has become a nonfactor in the passing game. He hasn’t caught a pass in two straight games. The total yardage line is basically betting the rushing yards under with some more yards to work with.
Additionally, the Ravens allow 3.8 yards per carry to running backs, the third-lowest rate in the league. It’s a bad matchup for a player whose role appears to be lessening.
- My line
57.5 -115 (BetMGM) - Current line
Same - Lowest I’d go
54.5
Bonus Anytime Touchdown Props
I finally got back on track with a touchdown prop last week. We had just the one, but it hit at +165, winning 1.65 units.
My anytime touchdown props are now 15-16, +7.6 units on the season. Here’s what we’ve got for Week 16.
- Derrick Henry to score 2+ touchdowns +380 (BetRivers)
- In his last three games against the Texans, Henry has scored twice. I will take these odds.