Best Fantasy Football Picks for Every NFL Team in 2024: Joe Mixon, Christian Kirk, Jaylen Waddle, and Others

For some NFL teams, we will draft as many as eight or nine players from their roster in fantasy football drafts. For other teams, we may only see a couple of their players get selected. Regardless of how many players are taken from each team, one of them will end up being the best value. That will be today’s focus — who is the best fantasy football asset on each NFL roster?

Who Are the Best Fantasy Football Picks for All 32 Teams in 2024?

Arizona Cardinals: QB Kyler Murray

In his career, Kyler Murray has never averaged fewer than 18.2 fantasy points per game (ppg). Over his first four seasons, he finished as the QB11, QB3, QB4, and QB7, respectively.

In 2022, Murray averaged 18.9 fantasy ppg over 11 games, finishing as the overall QB7. Last season, in eight games, he averaged the exact same 18.9 points per game. I would argue that’s even more impressive, given how much he looked like himself in his first games back after recovering from a torn ACL.

Last season, Murray ran for 33 and 51 yards in each of his first two games back. If he was doing that just after returning from a knee injury, imagine how much more effective he will be another year removed.

Anthony Richardson typically goes ahead of Murray. Yet, Murray already is what we hope Richardson will be. He is a screaming value in 2024 fantasy drafts.

Atlanta Falcons: TE Kyle Pitts

Just to be clear, the fact that Kyle Pitts is objectively the best value on the Falcons does not necessarily mean you should be clamoring to draft him. That sounds counterintuitive. I will explain.

Bijan Robinson goes in the first round. Drake London, who has never finished inside the top 40 WRs, goes in the second round. I love them both and expect them to smash, but it’s impossible to call them values.

The reason Pitts is a value is because he did not experience the same ADP spike from the Falcons hiring Zac Robinson and signing Kirk Cousins that London did. Pitts is going pretty much in the same spot he went last year.

It may very well not work out. There is absolutely a world where the reason Pitts struggled the past two seasons is because he’s just not that good. However, relative to the rest of the top fantasy assets on the Falcons, Pitts is clearly the best value, as the benefits of his improved situation are not baked into his ADP.

Baltimore Ravens: TE Mark Andrews

I am all in on Mark Andrews this season. This is a player who has consistently been going around the third round of fantasy drafts. Now, after one injury-shortened season, he’s going in the fourth and sometimes even the fifth. Why?

Since breaking out in 2019, Andrews has never finished lower than the overall TE5. Last season, he still averaged 13.5 fantasy ppg. If we remove his last game, in which he played just seven snaps, Andrews would have been at 14.6 ppg.

The fantasy community has fallen in love with the new, hot names of Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid. I submit that Andrews should go ahead of all three of them. He is the tight end to target in fantasy drafts this season.

Buffalo Bills: WR Keon Coleman

This is the part of fantasy football that I think novice players struggle with the most. I do not like Keon Coleman as a talent. I think he is going to go the way of every other contested-catch specialist like Quentin Johnston or Josh Doctson. Yet, I’m calling him a value. Why?

It’s a combination of Coleman’s cost and upside. Out of every wide receiver on the Bills, Coleman is the one with the highest ceiling. That fact is indisputable. Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel are not going to suddenly become top-18 assets. I don’t think Coleman will, either, but it’s at least plausible.

With a low-WR4 ADP, I’m willing to hedge my bets. What if I’m wrong and Coleman is far better than I think? The cost to find out is minimal, but the benefit if I am wrong is massive.

Carolina Panthers: WR Diontae Johnson

You have to be sick of hearing me hype up Diontae Johnson by now. If you’ve been following my work for multiple years, you know I’ve been doing this since 2021.

Per ESPN Analytics: since 2021, new Panthers WR Diontae Johnson ranks first in the league in “Open Score”, measuring a WR’s “likelihood to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted.”

🔗 https://t.co/Jbnb5siweb pic.twitter.com/yi5YTI37FY

— John Ellis (@1PantherPlace) June 19, 2024

Johnson is one of the most precise route runners in recent history. Last year, we saw Adam Thielen put up elite WR1 numbers for half of the season.

This year, Johnson is the clear WR1. It wouldn’t be a shock if he saw a 30% target share. Even if Bryce Young doesn’t take a step forward, it’s nearly impossible for Johnson to fail at his WR4-level price tag. His ceiling is WR2 production. He’s not just the best value on the Panthers, he’s one of the best values in all of fantasy football.

Chicago Bears: WR Keenan Allen

There are a lot of whispers that Keenan Allen might be the odd man out when the Bears run two-receiver sets. I have a very difficult time believing that a guy who has been as good for as long as Allen has will take a seat on the bench for a rookie.

Keenan Allen posted the highest open score of any WR in 2023.

His production vs. man coverage has held steady, and if we zoom out, his overall YPRR rate has actually increased from 2021 => 2022 => 2023. pic.twitter.com/DSBOSafdcq

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 12, 2024

Allen is 32 years old, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down. His skill set does not rely on raw athleticism, which means it will age quite well. He could very well be one of the outliers who can do this until the age of 35 or 36.

Now, to be fair, Allen has always been the alpha in his offense. Sharing the field with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze will necessarily impact his target share. But that’s baked into his ADP and then some.

Given how late Allen is going in drafts, there’s almost no risk. A top-12 finish is probably a stretch, but Allen certainly has a top-24 upside. At worst, you should get what you pay for.

Cincinnati Bengals: RB Zack Moss

This is the first value pick I need to put an asterisk on. This article was written in early August. At this time, I still believe Zack Moss will be the lead back and primary goal-line rusher. But there have been reports out of training camp that Chase Brown is running with the first team as well. I reserve the right to change my mind.

For now, though, I am sticking with Moss, as I expect him to essentially be what Joe Mixon was last year.

We got a glimpse of Moss in a lead-back role last season. He averaged a very respectable 4.7 yards per touch and proved capable of handling significant volume when necessary. In six games with Jonathan Taylor out, Moss averaged 14.0 fantasy ppg. And that doesn’t include his 33.5-point effort in Taylor’s first game back in Week 5 when Moss was still the primary back.

Last season, Mixon averaged 4.0 yards per carry, saw a 10.8% target share, and was outside the top 30-35 in most efficiency metrics. He was pretty much just a guy who ate volume. Efficiency-wise, Moss doesn’t look much different.

My theory on Moss is we’re getting about 80% of 2023 Mixon at a four-round discount.

Cleveland Browns: WR Amari Cooper

What are we doing here? Why is Amari Cooper going outside the top 24 WRs?

Sure, he’s 30 years old, but we’ve seen exactly zero signs of decline. Cooper has been as reliable as fantasy assets can get for nearly a decade.

Cooper has averaged between 13.3 and 15.4 fantasy ppg in all but one season in his career. The Browns’ roster does not have another receiver that is even remotely a threat to Cooper’s target share. If anything, we should expect it to increase from just 23.6% last season. Cooper is one of the most undervalued players at his fifth-round ADP.

Dallas Cowboys: RBs Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott

I really don’t know who will be the more valuable fantasy back. The Cowboys are probably going to throw a low. If Ezekiel Elliott can get back to his elite pass-blocking ways, he’ll be the guy on the field in those situations.

Per TruMedia, the Patriots had a 41.2% success rate on plays when Zeke was pass-blocking, 29th in the league. Given that Pollard was fourth in the league with the Cowboys at 59.6%, the team will probably notice if Elliott’s pass-blocking isn’t up to snuff.

I know I’m cheating a bit by listing both Elliott and Rico Dowdle, but this is as ambiguous of a backfield as we can get. We have no idea who the most valuable back will be. As a result of Dowdle’s lack of track record and Elliott’s age/declining ability, both backs are going outside of the top 36.

The Cowboys are always one of the highest-scoring offenses in football. One of these guys is going to be a value.

Denver Broncos: WR Courtland Sutton

Technically, someone on the Broncos has to be the best value, it just doesn’t necessarily mean that player is worth drafting in fantasy. So, I guess the answer here is Courtland Sutton.

The Broncos can be best described as a fantasy wasteland. There’s just not much here. In standard-sized fantasy leagues, we may very well see only two players from this team get drafted.

If you want to argue that Javonte Williams is more valuable, I wouldn’t argue it. The same goes for Jaleel McLaughlin, or perhaps even rookie RB Audric Estimé.

I went with Courtland Sutton because how many real-life WR1s with absolutely no competition for targets can you get outside the top 45 wide receivers?

Sutton was largely dependent on touchdowns last season, scoring 10 of them on just 59 receptions. He’s unlikely to reach that number with a rookie quarterback. But even so, there aren’t any exciting options on the Broncos. Sutton is the best value of a weak group.

Detroit Lions: RB David Montgomery

The Lions have three really awesome fantasy assets: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta. But we can’t call any of them values as they are all valued as the elite fantasy options they are.

Last year, LaPorta wound up being the best value on this team. The next-best value was David Montgomery. He’s shaping up to be the same guy this year.

Montgomery is obviously nowhere near as talented as Gibbs, but Montgomery is not a bad player. He averaged 14.8 fantasy ppg last season, finishing as the overall RB15.

At just 27 years old, Montgomery is not at risk of declining. The Lions possess one of the league’s best offenses, and they are very aggressive near the goal line.

Montgomery scored a touchdown in all but three games last season. He’s still going to be the goal-line back. In the fifth or sixth round, especially in Zero or Hero RB builds, Montgomery is a great option.

Green Bay Packers: WR Dontayvion Wicks

Since the Packers utilize a rotation of four wide receivers, two tight ends, and two running backs, all of their fantasy options are relatively cheap. Fantasy managers simply don’t know who will emerge. The cheapest of them all is sophomore WR Dontayvion Wicks.

Last season, Wicks averaged 2.07 yards per route run, 24th in the league, and 10.0 yards per target, 11th in the league. Those are really impressive numbers for a Day 3 rookie who opened the season fourth on the depth chart.

With an ADP outside of the top 60, Wicks is quite literally free. Yet, there’s a realistic chance he ends up being the top fantasy WR on the Packers.

Houston Texans: RB Joe Mixon

The best value isn’t necessarily the cheapest fantasy-relevant option. Mixon always goes before Tank Dell and occasionally goes ahead of Stefon Diggs. Yet, Mixon is the player on this team I want the most.

There’s value in being a running back who can handle a heavy workload. That’s been Mixon every year of his career. He’s not going to blow anyone away with efficiency, but he’s incredibly reliable.

Mixon’s career yards per carry is 4.1; last year, he was at 4.0 and saw a solid 10.8% target share. His 15.7 fantasy ppg is right in line with what he’s done his entire career.

Now, he joins an offense led by C.J. Stroud with no shortage of weapons. They are going to score a lot. If Mixon is simply the same guy we saw last year, he will go down as a tremendous value at his fourth-round price tag.

Indianapolis Colts: WR Michael Pittman Jr.

Whether Michael Pittman Jr. qualifies as the best value on the Colts really depends on your draft room. There’s nearly a 10-positional spot disparity between Pittman’s PPR and half-PPR ADP. I’m just not sure where the negativity stems from.

As the clear WR1 with minimal target competition, Pittman commanded an elite 30.5% target share, fourth in the league. His 2.08 yards per route run was good for 23rd in the NFL. All of this led to him catching 109 passes for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 15.6 fantasy ppg.

Despite the Colts drafting WR Adonai Mitchell, I see no threats to Pittman’s target share. He should be around 30% once again. Sure, the overall volume will be down. However, Anthony Richardson should make up for that by providing the Colts with an overall better offensive environment.

Most importantly, I bet Pittman scores more than four touchdowns. Based on his volume last season, he should’ve had around seven. Pittman is a great value beginning in the second half of the third round.

Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Christian Kirk

Two years ago, Christian Kirk got his “Christian Kirk money” and was the clear WR1 on the Jaguars. He averaged a career-high 14.2 fantasy ppg.

Last year, Kirk regressed a bit, largely due to poor quarterback play and the presence of Calvin Ridley.

His quarterback is still Trevor Lawrence, which is obviously less than ideal, but Ridley is now gone. Kirk’s competition for targets is Evan Engram, who is formidable, but then it’s Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis. Kirk could easily reach a 25% target share this season. He’s one of my favorite picks in the fifth or sixth round of fantasy drafts.

Kansas City Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes

The last time Patrick Mahomes even had a chance to be the best value on the Chiefs was back in 2018, his first year starting. Since then, he’s been a perennial top-three option. That is, until now.

For much of the summer, Mahomes was going outside the top three quarterbacks. He’s now creeping back up to his rightful spot as the overall QB2. However, largely, he’s still going later than he has at any point since 2018.

With the Chiefs adding two new wide receivers in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, combined with the returns of Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, I think we’re getting 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns from Mahomes.

Las Vegas Raiders: WR Davante Adams

I’m not even in on Davante Adams this season. He finds himself as the best fantasy value on the Raiders by default. There just isn’t anyone I even remotely want to draft on this team.

Adams averaged 15.6 fantasy ppg last season, which was his lowest mark since averaging 17.6 ppg in 2017. Those aren’t bad numbers. They’re just not what we’ve come to expect from Adams.

He averaged below 2.0 yards per route run last season. Utilizing TruMedia, I found that Adams’ EPA per target has been in decline for three consecutive seasons. In 2020, it was 0.45. It held steady at 0.44 in 2021, and in 2022, his first season with the Raiders, it fell to 0.22. Last year, it was a paltry 0.09.

Is Adams in decline, or is this a product of poor QB play? Either way, it’s not good, and the situation does not appear to have gotten any better. Nevertheless, he’s still Davante Adams. If anyone could rebound for a WR1 season at this age, it’s him. But mostly, I just dislike Adams less than the rest of the players on this team.

Los Angeles Chargers: WR Joshua Palmer

Fantasy managers love exciting young players. Ladd McConkey is the highest-drafted Chargers WR by far. But should he be going ahead of Joshua Palmer? The argument in favor of it is McConkey is a much more dynamic player. Palmer, for all he can do, has a capped ceiling.

With that said, Palmer is still the WR1 of this team. He is the most veteran receiver they have and the only one with an established rapport with Justin Herbert.

We’ve seen Palmer post high-WR3 numbers in games where he was an every-down player. Historically, that’s been when one of Keenan Allen or Mike Williams was inactive. Both are gone this year. Palmer is going around WR60. That’s essentially free.

Los Angeles Rams: RB Blake Corum

Given Blake Corum’s upside, he has to be the best value pick on the Rams. Although he likely won’t possess standalone value, he is one injury away from an every-week RB1.

Under Sean McVay, the Rams always have utilized one running back. Outside of Todd Gurley, they have never been a highly-drafted player.

Williams was a Day 3 pick. As great as he was last season, the Rams have no allegiance to him. If he goes down for an extended period and Corum plays well, Williams may not return to his job. That possibility alone makes Corum a great player to target at his RB39 ADP.

Miami Dolphins: WR Jaylen Waddle

The best players to target are the ones drafted at their floors. Jaylen Waddle averaged 14.2 fantasy ppg last season, finishing as the overall WR21.

It was disappointing relative to his ADP but not an outright disaster. A big part of Waddle’s struggles were injury-related. Although he only missed three games, Waddle left early or missed parts of several more.

Furthermore, Waddle only scored four times. He was pretty unlucky in multiple facets of the game last year.

As a result, Waddle’s ADP has dropped to WR18, just three spots above where he finished last year in what I consider to be the worst-case scenario. Waddle should probably be going 4-6 WR spots earlier, making him an awesome value pick in fantasy.

Minnesota Vikings: WR Justin Jefferson

I know what you’re thinking: How is the highest-drafted player on the Vikings also the best value? Well, Justin Jefferson is just one year removed from being the consensus overall WR1. This year, you can get him in the back half of the first round. A four-to-five-pick discount in Round 1 is far more significant than a multi-round discount in later rounds.

Last year, Jefferson averaged 20.2 fantasy ppg and got to 1,000 receiving yards in just 10 games. This season, Jefferson’s draft stock is down slightly due to Cousins’ departure.

From Weeks 15-18, Jefferson actually averaged 22.1 fantasy ppg. Not only were all of those games without Cousins, they were with three quarterbacks who have no business starting games in the NFL.

The combination of Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy will be better than what Jefferson had to work with last season. He is QB-proof and actually a value in the first round.

New England Patriots: WR Ja’Lynn Polk

The 2024 Patriots will go down in fantasy football history as one of the worst teams for fantasy of all time. Without a single desirable asset on the roster, the best value has to be their second-round rookie WR, Ja’Lynn Polk.

The Patriots’ WR corps consists of journeymen and rookies. We know what Kendrick Bourne is. DeMario Douglas, for as nice as he was last season, is not a true WR1. There’s an opening here.

At the very least, Polk has the potential to sneak into the top 36 if things break right. He’s worth a late-round dart throw.

New Orleans Saints: RB Alvin Kamara

Do I like endorsing 29-year-old running backs who have shown obvious signs of decline? Not really. But in Alvin Kamara’s case, he’s the best value on the Saints due to the lack of alternatives.

The only interesting fantasy options on this team are Chris Olave, Kamara, and Rashid Shaheed. While Shaheed is fun (and really fast), he is far from a complete receiver. He has the potential to outperform his ADP, but a top-30ish upside seems like a stretch.

Kamara is coming off an overall RB3 finish predicated almost entirely on empty receptions. That’s a dangerous gambit to make, but he seems destined to do it again.

The Saints have one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Derek Carr is not mobile and loves to check down. Additionally, the Saints lack capable pass-catchers beyond Olave and Shaheed. Given where Kamara finished last year and the similar circumstances this season, he’s probably a value at his RB17 price tag.

New York Giants: RB Devin Singletary

Fantasy managers love their Day 3 rookie darlings. I’m not trying to completely dismiss the notion that Tyrone Tracy Jr. can push for a meaningful role. However, the most likely outcome for every Day 3 pick is they won’t matter.

Devin Singletary is a proven, capable back. He has a history with head coach Brian Daboll from their time in Buffalo.

Singletary is capable of handling a heavy workload. Last year, he played over 70% of the snaps six times. He did it eight times the year before in Buffalo.

Despite opening the season as a clear backup to Dameon Pierce, Singletary was able to completely take the RB1 job by the second half of the season.

From Week 9 through the end of last season, Singletary averaged 13.4 fantasy ppg — those are rock-solid RB2 numbers. I’ve got Singletary up at RB27, and even that feels low. If Singletary can merely replicate that level of production this season on the Giants, he will be well worth his cost in fantasy drafts.

New York Jets: RB Breece Hall

The Jets have two players that typically go in the first round. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Garrett Wilson wound up being the top fantasy option on this team. However, Wilson has yet to live up to the hype, whereas Breece Hall exceeded all expectations last season.

Given that Hall goes in the top half of the first round, it is a bit strange to call him the best value on the Jets. Unfortunately, there just aren’t any players I want on this team beyond Hall and Wilson.

Coming off a torn ACL, Hall averaged 17.1 fantasy ppg, finishing as the overall RB6. This was after he was trapped in a timeshare for the first month of the season.

Now another year removed from the injury, Hall is a legitimate threat to unseat Christian McCaffrey as the overall RB1.

Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Justin Fields

Wait, what? Justin Fields? The Steelers’ backup quarterback? Make it make sense. You got it!

Obviously, no one is drafting Justin Fields outside of Superflex leagues. He’s going to open the season as Russell Wilson’s backup. But I am supremely confident Wilson is getting benched at some point this season.

Regardless of how you feel about Fields as a professional quarterback, he’s a QB1 in fantasy. He averaged 18.4 fantasy ppg last season, finishing as the overall QB9. That was amid a bad year.

When Fields inevitably supplants Wilson as the Steelers’ starting QB, he will be a hot waiver add in every league.

Philadelphia Eagles: WR DeVonta Smith

I am buying into the whole “Kellen Moore will fix the Eagles’ offense” narrative. Moore’s offenses play fast and utilize their top receivers from the slot. It could be A.J. Brown exclusively benefiting from moving inside, but I think we will see both he and DeVonta Smith run more routes from the slot.

Smith still got to 14.2 fantasy ppg last season despite erratic QB play and poor offensive play calling. He finished as the overall WR20. He’s being drafted as the WR22. That’s what we call drafting a player at his floor.

San Francisco 49ers: RB Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey is the consensus No. 1 overall pick in fantasy this year. He’s still the best value on the 49ers.

McCaffrey has stayed healthy each of the past two seasons. Last year, he was the overall RB1, averaging 24.5 fantasy ppg.

At 28 years old, McCaffrey has shown no signs of decline. He is the consensus top pick in all fantasy drafts this season, and rightfully so. Despite the abundance of talent on the 49ers, CMC stands out. Brandon Aiyuk is being drafted at his ceiling. Deebo Samuel Sr. misses too much time. George Kittle is asked to block too much to be an effective fantasy asset with all the target competition. McCaffrey is a cheat code.

Seattle Seahawks: RB Zach Charbonnet

By no means is a Zach Charbonnet takeover imminent or even likely, but it’s possible. The price disparity between Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III doesn’t accurately capture the likelihood of it occurring.

Walker is going as the RB14, 30 running back spots ahead of Charbonnet. That’s awfully high for a backfield that was close to a 50/50 timeshare last season.

Although Walker is the clear starter, there’s an entirely new coaching staff in town. They didn’t draft either of these backs. That means they have no allegiances. Whoever plays the best will touch the ball more. The mere potential for it to be Charbonnet makes him a great value at his ADP.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Chris Godwin

Last year, Mike Evans completely separated himself from Chris Godwin. No longer were they 1A/1B. It was Evans the clear No. 1 and Godwin a very distant second.

This year, under a new offensive coordinator, we may see these two converge a bit more, but their prices don’t reflect it.

Godwin is going as the WR35. Yes, he was very bad last season in fantasy. He still finished as the WR34. It’s not going to get any worse. That means, in a worst-case scenario, Godwin will return par value. That’s not going to hurt your fantasy team.

Now, what if the alternative occurs? The below chart is from TruMedia. The middle column is Godwin’s total slot snaps. The leftmost column is Godwin’s fantasy ppg. The rightmost column is Godwin’s fantasy ppg from the slot. One of these things is not like the other.

If Godwin moves back into the slot this season, we might see him return to being a weekly WR2. Given his ADP, that makes him the best value bet on the Bucs.

Tennessee Titans: RB Tyjae Spears

Initially, this was going to be DeAndre Hopkins. Unfortunately, a knee sprain that will sideline him for anywhere from 4-6 weeks forced me to reconsider. As much as I still believe in Hopkins, a 32-year-old WR entering the season injured is not a profile we want to invest in. That brings me to Tyjae Spears.

I am a big fan of Spears and have him ever so slightly ahead of Tony Pollard. Titans coaches themselves have said that both backs have similar skill sets (which is true) and neither has a defined role. They are both going to play. So, why is Spears going two full rounds after Pollard?

The bet here is that these are similar fantasy assets. Since Spears goes later, he’s the better value.

Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels

My strategy for quarterback this season is very simple. If I take one early, it’s Patrick Mahomes. If I take one in the middle rounds, it’s Kyler Murray. If I wait until the double-digit rounds, give me Jayden Daniels.

The Commanders’ rookie is a rushing quarterback. Rushing is a cheat code in fantasy. Even if Daniels is a terrible passer, as long as he doesn’t get benched, he’s a nearlock to be a top-12 fantasy QB.

If Daniels ends up being a better passer than we think, he has a top-five upside. Daniels is the premier late-round QB selection in 2024 fantasy drafts.