The college football slate on Saturday is chock full of anticipated action as conference play gets truly started around the country. With so many games in mind, we focused our attention on the best college football prop bets for Week 5’s Saturday slate with a heavy dose of Big Ten football to start the weekend off right.
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Top college football prop bets for today
You have to look in between the lines for each game to find your preferred betting angles, and though we’ve got you covered with a detailed look at the DFS picks for a great Saturday of football, the individual player prop bets to wager on were obvious this week.
Tanner Morgan over 208.5 passing yards
Leading the country in yards per pass attempt, Tanner Morgan looks a lot like the 2019 version of himself that had people clamoring for him as a first-round NFL draft prospect. We’re not here to discuss that, we’re here to discuss the fact that when he went up against Purdue that season, he threw for almost 400 yards and four touchdowns, his single-best performance of the season.
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Morgan carved up the Purdue secondary that night, averaging nearly 20 yards per pass attempt in a ridiculous outing that still ranks among the best quarterback performances in recent history. He’s exceptionally accurate, and reuniting with offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca has paid dividends for his college career and the Minnesota offense as a whole. Morgan should absolutely throw for 300 yards against a Purdue pass defense that gave up over 300 to an inferior Penn State passing attack.
Graham Mertz under 179.5 passing yards
On the flip side, Graham Mertz’s total should be examined heavily. Facing a staunch Illinois pass defense, Mertz’s total leans towards the under. He’s averaging under 200 yards per game, and against the toughest test to date — Ohio State — he looked shaky, flustered, and inaccurate. Illinois’ pass defense has given up under 50 yards in two different outings this season. It’s a sound unit that got healthier with a bye week in Week 3 and a long week of preparation after playing midweek against Chatanooga last week.
Spencer Petras over 0.5 interceptions
This is as big of an indictment on Spencer Petras as it is a compliment to Michigan’s pass defense. The Wolverines are a sound unit on the back end and can limit even the top quarterbacks. With Petras getting the benefit of the doubt to remain the team’s starter, don’t be fooled by his performance against Nevada. The secondary unit is stacked, and the “lack of plays” on the ball may worry some, but they’ve had a few bad bounces and faced teams that were unwilling to throw on them so far this season.
Given DJ Turner’s ball skills, you have to think he can make another highlight-reel interception if Petras tests him. And Petras will certainly have to test Michigan through the air as their run defense is perhaps even better.
Chase Brown under 120.5 rushing yards
Speaking of run defense, Wisconsin’s unit on defense has been sound (except when they played Ohio State). And since Illinois’ offense isn’t quite up to par with Ohio State’s (few are), Chase Brown should be seen as a large fade this week. Against opponents not named Ohio State, the Wisconsin unit has been marvelous and held under four yards per carry and only allowed over 100 yards in mop-up time against New Mexico State.
The edge setters are also talented running backside pursuit angles, thus taking away Brown’s vision that typically sets him apart from the field. The Fighting Illini will try to get him over the 100-yard hump, but it’s a tall ask against the Badgers.
Shaun Shivers under 85.5 rushing yards
Opponents have run wild against the Nebraska defense this season, each team totaling well over 100 and three of four opponents going for over 200 yards. So, why the under for Shaun Shivers facing Nebraska? It’s simple: Against starting running backs, Nebraska’s defense has only given up two carries of over 25 yards this season (add another in garbage time, but this game shouldn’t go to garbage time), and Shivers’ success to reach that 100-yard plateau has been largely dependent on his ability to break off chunk plays.
Say what you will about Nebraska’s obscene defense this year, they have at least been sound in the early stages against the opposing team’s No. 1 running backs. Also, add in the fact that Josh Henderson is seeing an uptick in every game this year and could cut into Shivers’ workload, and you have a recipe for a dud from Shivers this week.
Mohamed Ibrahim over 0.5 rushing touchdowns
The Purdue Boilermakers have allowed just one rushing touchdown his year on defense. So the line indicates to go for the under on Mohamed Ibrahim’s touchdown total, right? Maybe. Maybe not. Ibrahim isn’t anywhere near the same stratosphere of running backs that Purdue has faced, and that’s saying something considering they went up against Syracuse’s Sean Tucker this year. Ibrahim, now healthy, is back to playing arguably the best football of his career. He’s averaging career-best numbers in yards per carry and is on pace to score 24 touchdowns on the ground this year. Take Mo, take the over, watch Mo score. It’s fun.
Jayden Reed over 51.5 receiving yards
Receivers who can use natural separation and route-running ability against Maryland’s secondary have found their groove this season. SMU’s Rashee Rice exploded against the Terps while Charlotte’s Victor Tucker hauled in 10 catches and two touchdowns. In fact, Maryland has allowed six different receivers to go for over 52 yards and Jayden Reed appears to be healthy yet again. He’s left some plays on the table this year but is still a career 14-plus-yard per catch receiver capable of taking the top off the defense. Reed’s healthy, the Terps can’t cover, and the yards should explode (if Payton Thorne can be accurate).
Cam Camper over 0.5 receiving touchdowns
There’s no denying Cam Camper’s natural ability at the catch point. There is no denying his ability after the catch or his ability to get open with separation. And you certainly cannot deny the fact that he is a size mismatch for most of Nebraska’s cornerbacks at 6’2″, 200-plus pounds.
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Camper has hauled in just one touchdown this season but has been the focal point of the offense in every situation, seeing at least 15 targets in three of four games this year. Nebraska has struggled in coverage on the outside to a variety of pass catchers, and they should have all the same amount of trouble in limiting the bellcow of receivers in Camper.
