The Cincinnati Bengals will face the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bengals skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Joe Burrow, QB
I’d take my chances most weeks if you told me Burrow was going to complete over 70% of his passes, funnel over 30% of his looks to Ja’Marr Chase, and run for 15 yards. That profile, more often than not, is going to make him a usable piece. But against the Eagles last week, it resulted in his worst weekly finish since Week 1.
The Friday injury to Tee Higgins certainly disrupted what this offense wanted to do, and the lack of a ground game certainly didn’t help (Chase Brown and Zack Moss ran 17 times for 43 yards with a long rush of five yards). This week should be better.
Not only will the team have a contingency plan in place for the Higgins situation, a level of balance is much more likely as they face a defense that ranks 23rd in rush success rate and 28th in yards allowed per carry after contact to running backs this year.
Burrow has been able to marry an increase in quick strike rate with regular downfield shots, a combination that should prove lethal in this spot. The Raiders create pressure at the fifth-lowest rate and allow the fifth-most red-zone trips per game (3.6). I have zero hesitation about going back to Cincy’s franchise man — he’s my QB6 for Week 9.
Chase Brown, RB
The Raiders allow the most goal-to-go drives per game. Last week, Chase Brown pushed across a four-yard score, indicating that the valuable carries might well be his (nine red-zone touches over his past five games).
The concern, of course, is a lack of efficiency. Brown has 27 carries for 76 yards over the past two weeks, and if you remove a single one, his ypc average over that stretch tanks to 2.1.
I like the Bengals in this game, and if that’s going to prove accurate, Brown’s 14-16 touches will land him as a usable fantasy piece. With that being my stance, I have him ranked as my RB25 this week, ahead of players like J.K. Dobbins and Javonte Williams, two backs with slightly more stable roles.
Zack Moss, RB
Late-week injury downgrades are never what you want to see. On Friday, Zack Moss (neck) was added to the Cincinnati Bengals’ injury report for the first time this week. Given that he didn’t pop up until the end of the week, Moss was likely injured during practice.
He’s considered doubtful for Sunday’s game against the Raiders. Assuming Moss can’t go, fellow Bengals RB Chase Brown should receive a full workload in Week 9. Trayveon Williams is the only other back on Cincinnati’s active roster, and he hasn’t played an offensive snap this season.
Las Vegas represents a decent fantasy matchup for Brown. The Raiders’ defense ranks in the middle of the pack in EPA per rush and rushing success rate but has given up the 10st-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. However, Brown likely won’t have left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. (doubtful; knee/fibula) blocking for him on Sunday.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR
Chase has scored seven times over his past six games, looking downright unguardable at times. All of his efficiency metrics are trending toward career bests, and against a Raiders team that is one of three to have a higher blitz rate than pressure rate this season, it’s not hard to imagine a comfortable Joe Burrow giving his top target opportunities to break this game open.
My ranking of Chase will not move in a meaningful way based on Tee Higgins’ status — his role is as safe as anyone’s in the league.
Tee Higgins, WR
A quad injury at Friday’s practice resulted in Higgins being a late add to the injury report and ultimately resulted in him sitting out against the Eagles. Week 8 was his third missed game of the season and eighth over the past two years, introducing more health risks than the star receiver had through his first three NFL seasons (four total missed games). As for what we saw before last week’s DNP:
Chase:
- 37 targets (two in the end zone)
- 29 catches (six on third downs)
- Two drops
Higgins:
- 45 targets (three in the end zone)
- 29 catches (nine on third downs)
- Zero drops
Why am I not hesitating to go back to Higgins this week in the least? In Weeks 1-8, Higgins was targeted on 37.3% of his routes when Joe Burrow wasn’t pressured, a rate that far exceeded Chase’s 22.3% rate. When you fold in blitz rate to pressure rate, the Raiders, despite having the monster that is Maxx Crosby, are as poor a defense as there is in the league.
I like the Bengals in this game. In their past four wins, Higgins has averaged 8.3 targets and 16.8 PPR points per game. I like his chances of getting there in this spot, and that’s why he has the potential to flirt with WR1 status as he trends toward kickoff.
Mike Gesicki, TE
With Tee Higgins sidelined, Gesicki’s role reappeared. The tight end had twice as many targets on Sunday (eight) as he had in the month prior, though he was still only on the field for 53.4% of Cincinnati’s offensive snaps.
On the plus side, fantasy managers and the Bengals want the same thing out of Geicki — to catch passes. I’m a sports writer with the physical tools to — well — cover sports, and I spent as much time in October pass-blocking as Gesicki. With Higgins listed as doubtful for Sunday, I’m willing to roll the dice with a role like that in a pass-centric offense that faces the seventh-worst red-zone defense (62.1% TD rate) and the fourth-highest touchdown rate on short passes.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals Insights
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The NFL team average is 4.5 yards per carry—the Raiders failed to reach 3.5 in five of eight games last season (Week 8: 21 carries for 33 yards).
QB: Gardner Minshew’s average depth of throw over his past four appearances (ending with Sunday’s mark against the Chiefs): 8.3 – 7.7 – 6.2 – 4.6.
Offense: The Raiders either scored or went three-and-out on every drive on Sunday against the Chiefs.
Defense: Before Sunday, the Raiders hadn’t allowed more than five third-down conversions in a game this season (28.9% conversion rate). Amidst Kermit Gate, Patrick Mahomes picked up 12-of-16 (75%) opportunities.
Fantasy: What made Jakobi Meyers great on Sunday? A season-low 5.8% aDOT and 42.2% slot usage (under 23% in each of his two games before his injury).
Betting: The Raiders have covered five of their past seven road games, with three of those covers coming by more than six points.
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: The Bengals have three wins this season – against the Panthers, Giants, and Browns.
QB: Joe Burrow’s red zone completion percentage is down to 53.7% from 67.4% last season
Offense: The Bengals have averaged under 5.0 yards per play three times this season, two of which have come in the past two weeks.
Defense: Cincinnati blitzed 28.6% of the time on Sunday (their highest since Week 3), but created pressure on a season-low 13.6% of Philadelphia dropbacks.
Fantasy: With Tee Higgins sidelined, Mike Gesicki’s role reappeared. The tight end had twice as many targets on Sunday (eight) as he had in the month prior.
Betting: The Bengals are 0-4 ATS at home this season, failing to cover three of those games by double figures.