The AFC Championship Game will feature the conference’s two best teams in the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs, two of the AFC’s three best quarterbacks (Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes), and arguably the conference’s two best wide receivers in Ja’Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill.
Who’s better: Ja’Marr Chase or Tyreek Hill?
If you could only pick one between Chase and Hill, who would you take? What a tough question.
Both have been incredible all year and special in the playoffs. Hill leads the conference in 2021 postseason catches (16 for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns). Chase is second in the AFC in playoff receiving yards (225 on 14 catches with 3 receptions of 20 or more yards). Neither team would be one win away from the Super Bowl without their star wideouts.
But if you could only pick one, who would it be? We argue both sides.
The case for Hill
Hill is one of the most dynamic players in NFL history. He has the speed of a sprinter and the hands of an artist. And he does it all. He catches the ball, of course. But he also carries it out of the backfield and returns it on special teams. Without Hill’s 45-yard punt return in the fourth quarter Sunday, the Chiefs might not have beaten the Bills.
Hill — 5’10”, 185 pounds — has sub-4.3 speed. And he showed it when he burned the entire Bills defense on a 64-yard catch-and-run touchdown late in regulation against Buffalo. He’s a deserving three-time first-team All-Pro and a six-time Pro Bowler.
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In 2021, Hill was targeted 159 times (seventh-most in the NFL) and averaged 7.8 yards per target. Along with his 111 catches and 1,239 yards, Hill accounted for 75 first downs and 9 touchdowns.
He averaged 11.2 yards per reception and 4.0 yards after the catch. Given how often Mahomes targeted him downfield, Hill was sure-handed, with a 69.8% catch rate and a 4.4% drop rate.
The case for Chase
What Chase lacked at times in dependability (his 8.6% drop rate and 63.3% catch rate both need improvement), he more than made up for in explosivity. Chase averaged more yards per target (11.4) than Hill averaged per reception. That’s absolutely wild efficiency. Chase’s 18.0 yards per catch were the most among qualifying AFC receivers.
And while he, of course, doesn’t have Hill’s speed — just a handful of people on the planet do — Chase is no snail. He clocked a sub-4.4 40-yard dash in the 2021 NFL Draft process. That helps explain his ridiculous yards-after-catch average (8.0).
In just his first NFL season, he is already the Bengals’ franchise record-holder for receiving yards (1,455). If Chase doesn’t win Offensive Rookie of the Year in a couple of weeks, we will demand a recount.
Chase or Hill? Our pick
There’s no right answer here — both players are magical. Nevertheless, our pick is Chase for a number of reasons. He’s a better deep threat, with an absurd 12.6 average depth of target (aDOT). He’s younger (21 compared to Hill’s 27). And since he’s on a rookie deal, Chase is much, much cheaper. His $7.7 million average annual value (AAV) is less than half of Hill’s $18 million. But both are special and will need to continue to be in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game to advance.
