Our Week 17 Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions prediction examines an NFC North clash that could have significant playoff implications in the NFC. Let’s dive into the current NFL betting odds, the key storylines to watch, and make a prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday, Dec. 26.
Bears vs. Lions Odds
- Spread
Lions -5.5 - Moneyline
Bears +195, Lions -230 - Over/Under
51.5
Bears vs. Lions Prediction
This is a fascinating game between two teams that have seen a wide range of outcomes this year. The Lions just saw their three-game winning streak smashed by a fantastic Carolina Panthers run game. Meanwhile, the Bears are on an eight-game losing streak, having run into Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills last week.
The play of Justin Fields is what has really been intriguing for Chicago this year. At times, he has flashed, but he’s been unable to stop the Bears from falling to a 3-12 record entering Week 17. Additionally, Chicago is also 5-9-1 against the spread, having covered in just one of the last six games.
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Meanwhile, the Lions have gone 6-2 in the past eight weeks, covering the spread in seven of those eight. Their 37-23 loss to the Panthers last week was the first time they have failed to cover since Week 7 when they faced the Miami Dolphins. During that stretch, the Lions have gone 2-1 as favorites. Their three covers this year have come when they were favored by two points or fewer.
The Bears’ run game will likely be the key here. Last week was the first time they hadn’t rushed for more than 100 yards since Week 5. Meanwhile, the Lions had allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in four of five coming into Week 16. However, they allowed the Panthers to amass 320 rushing yards. That was the second time that Detroit had allowed over 250 rushing yards this season, with the other coming against the Bears in Week 10.
That Week 10 matchup finished 31-30 in a superb shootout in Soldier Field. A game that started slowly burst into life in the second half with 51 points scored after halftime, 27 in the fourth quarter, and was ultimately decided by a missed extra point by Cairo Santos.
There are two areas that the Lions have an advantage in terms of their offense this week. While Chicago’s offense is actually marginally better on third down, Detroit has a big advantage on fourth downs and inside the red zone. The Lions convert 52.9% of fourth downs, compared to 38.1% for the Bears. Meanwhile, the Lions’ 68.4% red-zone conversion rate is tied for third best in the NFL, compared to a league average 55.3% red-zone conversion rate for the Bears.
When we look at defense, both teams have a lot of similarities in terms of conversion rate. They are the worst two teams in the league in terms of third-down conversion against (49.7% for the Bears and 47.5% for the Lions). They also allow the fourth and fifth-highest red-zone conversion percentages at 64.8% (Bear) and 64.7% (Lions). The difference comes on fourth down, where Detroit allows a 58.3% conversion rate compared to 42.9% for Chicago.
MORE: Early NFL Week 17 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
This Bears vs. Lions prediction is extremely intriguing to make because, barring a couple of mistakes in the previous meeting, the result could have been a lot different. Fields threw an interception that Jeff Okudah turned into a pick-six, and then there was the missed kick by Santos. The Lions are marginally the better team, but their volatility makes it tough to back them to cover a 5.5-point spread.
Bears vs. Lions Prediction
Lions 28, Bears 24
