The Chicago Bears will face the Detroit Lions in Week 13 on Thanksgiving. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bears skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Caleb Williams, QB
Caleb Williams showed nice mobility last week, and I think that is a path to him being a viable asset as soon as 2025. We’ve seen some proof of concept games from the rookie this season (three top-six performances), but the growing pains have outweighed those positive spots (those are his only top-12 finishes through three months).
The Lions offense steals most of the headlines, but this defense is a problem, as they rank fourth in the red zone and first in third down situations. Williams is going to have plenty of chances to produce against Detroit in his career – this isn’t a matchup I want to be have any part of.
D’Andre Swift, RB
We’ve seen the number of touchdown vultures decline with time, so managers with D’Andre Swift have to feel like they ran into some awful luck with Roschon Johnson routinely swooping in to end drives (he’s converted all six of his carries from the one-yard line this season).
You couldn’t have seen this coming, so there’s nothing to worry about from a process standpoint, and I still think you’re OK starting Swift weekly, albeit with a capped ceiling due to the limited scoring equity.
With Caleb Williams running for his life last week, he lobbed a 30-yard dime to Swift, a completion that was special, but his attempting the pass is what I like. No, situations like that aren’t always going to present themselves, but Williams’ faith in his lead back is great to see.
Swift has produced viable fantasy numbers in seven of his past eight games, thanks in large part to the volume that I think you can count on (16+ touches in eight straight). The Lions own the second-best red-zone defense through 12 weeks — Swift’s path to a top-10 finish isn’t clear, but he’s a fine bet to give you RB2 production, and that’s good enough.
Roschon Johnson, RB
- Roschon Johnson: 6
- David Montgomery: 5
- Derrick Henry: 4
- Kenneth Walker: 4
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 4
Yep, that’s the running back leaderboard in one-yard touchdowns through 12 weeks. Johnson had two touchdowns on his NFL résumé entering this season, but the Bears have unleashed him as their vulture in the post-Justin Fields era, and it’s paying off (he’s 6-for-6 on such attempts).
This season, the second-year back is averaging just 5.9 touches per game, and while the scoring equity is nice to have on your roster, there’s no reason to reach this far in the rankings to fill out your Week 13 lineup.
Might there be a time and place for Johnson? I could see it if you’re battling injuries in a deeper format — this just isn’t that spot in a game where I don’t see the Bears consistently threatening the red zone.
DJ Moore, WR
It took over two months, but the Bears are finally using DJ Moore in an optimal way, and that has him in my Flex tier for this week.
Moore’s aDOT trends, 2024:
Weeks 1-9: 9.8 yards (12.3% production under expectation)
Weeks 10-12: 2.7 yards (31.3% production over expectation)
Last weekend, Moore scored on a screen pass on a play that looked easy. Not every short pass is going to have the blocking line up quite like that, but he has hauled in all 14 of his targets over the past two weeks, and that stabilizes his floor in a way that not many players experience when playing alongside a rookie.
That’s nice for Moore’s outlook for the remainder of the season … starting next week. The Lions are the fourth-best defense on a rate basis at preventing scores to the slot and the very best when looking at all short passes thrown.
The Bears are going to continue to look to get Caleb Williams as many reps as possible, and with Moore tabbed as my highest-ranked receiver in this offense, there are going to be usable weeks ahead.
Keenan Allen, WR
Woah. There were plenty of surprises last week, but a 15-target outing from Keenan Allen was up there with anything we saw in Week 12.
I don’t think the overall volume of the passing game in Chicago is going to look like that very often (even as a double-digit underdog on Thanksgiving), but last week featured Allen seeing six of Caleb Williams’ first 12 targets (five catches for 70 yards), and that makes me think that this a diagnosed matchup more than anything.
The 23.6-point outing was Allen’s best of the season — it was also just his second top-30 performance of the season. I would love to tell you that this is a sign of things to come, but I’m not going to lie to you. DJ Moore has caught all 14 of his targets over the past two weeks, and while Rome Odunze has yet to break out, his ability to earn targets is trending in a positive direction.
Detroit is the top-ranked defense in terms of opponent passer rating, fueling my ranking of Allen as more of a WR4 than anything. I understand that seeing the points pile up on your bench last week was irritating, but I’d caution against turning one mistake into two by locking him into your starting lineup on Thanksgiving.
Rome Odunze, WR
I really want to believe that Rome Odunze is going to be the latest example of a high-pedigree rookie receiver finding his footing when it matters most for fantasy managers. He only has three top-40 weeks this season despite an 83.3% snap share, a sign that he simply isn’t ready to produce at a high level just yet.
But I can’t quit him. He’s posted 10 targets and 17.1 expected PPR points in consecutive weeks, a step in the right direction. Also working in his favor is a role that has produced triple-digit air yards in four of his past five games. The profile is sound and that’s enough to keep him on my roster, even if the remaining schedule doesn’t paint a pretty picture.
Bears’ remaining schedule (opponent passer rating vs. deep passes):
- Week 13 at Detroit Lions (second)
- Week 14 at San Francisco 49ers (first)
- Week 15 at Minnesota Vikings (11th)
- Week 16 vs. Detroit Lions (second)
- Week 17 vs. Seattle Seahawks (14th)
I’ll be watching from a distance in the same way that I approach Thanksgiving dinner at my parents’ house. We are a crew with varied tastes, but my mom and mine align for the most part. I sit at the back of the line and see how she approaches the situation as the person who helped organize the entire event. If she highlights a certain dish, I’m in.
If Odunze shows signs of life in either of these two difficult matchups, I might just be in for the rematch against the Vikings with my fantasy season on the line. But for now, I’m watching from a distance with him on my bench.
Cole Kmet, TE
Settle down, people.
We see these random spikes from Cole Kmet every so often and only the strong fantasy managers avoid the temptation. If you’re not familiar with his work …
- Weeks 4-5, 2023: 12 catches for 127 yards and three TDs
- The next two games: Three targets on 48 routes for nine yards
- Weeks 8-9, 2023: 16 catches for 134 yards and two TDs
- The next three games: No more than 45 yards in any game, zero TDs
- Week 3, 2024: 10 catches for 97 yards and a TD
- The next two games: Seven targets on 48 routes for 91 yards
- Week 6, 2024: Five catches for 70 yards and two TDs
- The next three games: Five targets on 92 routes for 27 yards
Kmet was the beneficiary of a high-volume game from Caleb Williams (47 attempts; seven games before: 29.6 attempts per game) — a 21.3% target share produces far less impressive numbers if the attempt count is closer to the norm.
I’ll listen to your argument that Chicago is likely to be forced to abandon the run this week as a double-digit underdog. That’s fair, but are you confident in Kmet as a target earner? I’m not. His on-field target share in Weeks 8-11 was 5.7%, a rate that ranks well below any option that you’re even remotely considering.
At best, we are discussing the fourth-best option in the passing game under the tutelage of a sporadic rookie against a rapidly improving defense. If that’s the profile you want to chase, go for it — just don’t blame me if it doesn’t work out. Kmet is my TE20 for Week 13.